Trump wants to round up over a million illegals. Here's how he might do it

WASHINGTON—Former President Donald Trump has focused relentlessly on illegal immigration as a centerpiece of his campaign for the White House, just as when he first ran in 2016.

"They're poisoning the blood of our country," he has said of undocumented migrants, using language redolent of the racist doctrines of Adolf Hitler.

He promises to launch "the biggest domestic deportation campaign in American history" on Day One of his new presidency.

His chief immigration adviser, Santa Monica-born Stephen Miller, has spelled out what that would mean: Trump would assemble "a giant force" including National Guard troops to seize undocumented migrants, transport them to camps in Texas and expel them.

"A very conservative estimate would say about 10 million," Miller told pro-Trump talk show host Charlie Kirk.

If "unfriendly states" — like California — don't want to cooperate, Miller said, Trump could order Guard units from red states like Texas to cross their borders to enforce the law.

The operation would be "as daring and ambitious … as building the Panama Canal," Miller promised.

That's a pretty bloodless way to describe a process that would uproot thousands of families, separate children from their parents and disrupt communities. But before we get to that, a preliminary question:

If he wins in November, could Trump really do that?

From a legal standpoint, the answer is yes.

If Trump invokes the Insurrection Act and declares that the National Guard is needed to enforce federal immigration law, he could send Texas troops into California whether Gov. Gavin Newsom agrees or not, legal scholars said.

"We normally don't want the military enforcing the law inside the country; law enforcement is supposed to be provided by police forces that are local — and locally accountable," said William Banks, an emeritus professor of law at Syracuse University. "But the Insurrection Act gives the president sweeping authority. You could drive a lot of trucks through that law."

Newsom would presumably file a lawsuit against Trump to try to block the move, but it would almost certainly fail.

"No state has ever sued successfully to stop a deployment of the Guard under the Insurrection Act," warned Joseph Nunn of the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University.

There are also practical concerns. Most National Guard units are neither trained nor equipped for law enforcement missions.

"Tracking down undocumented migrants is complicated and time-consuming," Nunn noted. "You need people who know how to do it, like ICE [Immigration and Customs Enforcement] agents.

"The Guard would resist that kind of mission mightily," added Banks. "They hate this kind of stuff. They would be better suited to patrol the border — to stand next to the wall, the fence or the river and discourage people from coming across."

So if Trump listens to his generals — not a sure thing — he'd be more likely to use Guard units to bolster weak spots on the border and manage those newly built transit camps for deportees.

That would free up ICE agents for raids on Central Valley farms and Los Angeles sweatshops — which is what immigration agents did in earlier crackdowns, including the offensively named Operation Wetback, which expelled more than a million Mexican migrants (and some U.S. citizens) in 1954.

So legally, there may not be that much California can do. But the fallout in a state home to an estimated 1.9 million undocumented people — roughly 5% of the population — would be difficult to imagine.

The human impact of uprooting most or all of these California residents would be gigantic. Many undocumented migrants are members of families that include legal residents and U.S. citizens, including children.

Many are deeply rooted in their communities; more than two-thirds have lived in the state longer than 10 years, according to one estimate.

"When you harm the undocumented, you harm U.S. citizens too," said Angelica Salas, executive director of the Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights in Los Angeles.

"I've seen families devastated by the deportation of their loved ones. I've seen families, when the father is deported, go right into economic ruin," Salas said. "The trauma for children, especially small children, is enormous."

The economic impact of mass deportations would be huge, too. An estimated 1.5 million California workers, more than 7% of the state's workforce, are undocumented. About half work in agriculture, construction, hospitality and retail, industries that already suffer from severe labor shortages.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell said this month that the growth of immigrants in the workforce had strengthened economic growth. "It's just arithmetic," said Powell, a Trump appointee. "If you add a couple of million people to an economy … there will be more output." Abruptly subtracting a million or more would have the opposite effect.

Trump advisors aren't planning to stop at removing undocumented people from the country.

Miller wants to go after some people in the country legally too.

He has proposed expanding the criteria for deportation to include people with valid visas "whose views, attitudes and beliefs make them ineligible to stay" in the eyes of the new Trump administration.

"The obvious example here would be all of the Hamas supporters who are rallying across the country," he said.

An immigration task force organized by the conservative Heritage Foundation and led by a former Trump administration official proposed blocking Federal Emergency Management Agency grants to state and local agencies that refuse to cooperate with ICE enforcement operations, a standard that would presumably disqualify most or all California agencies.

The task force also proposed denying federal loans and grants to students at universities that allow undocumented migrants to pay in-state tuition, a rule that would affect UC and the Cal State systems.

It adds up to a recipe for a major collision with California, the state most out of step with Trump's determination to rid the country of undocumented migrants.

None of this constitutes a defense of the Biden administration's policies, which have failed to deter thousands of migrants from crossing the border and applying for asylum on often-dubious grounds.

But it's worth remembering that only a few weeks ago, Trump ordered Republicans in Congress to kill a bipartisan bill that would have increased funding for immigration enforcement and raised the bar for asylum claims — because, as he admitted, he didn't want to allow President Biden to appear as if he was fixing the problem.

When Trump was first elected in 2016, I wrote that on immigration policy, "His bark may prove worse than his bite."

I was wrong. He turned out to be dead serious.

Trump's promises of mass deportations and detention camps should be taken seriously — and literally, too.

"If he says he's going to do it, believe him," Salas said.

(COMMENT, BELOW)

Previously:
• 03/06/24: Biden should hope he gets heckled at his State of the Union speech
• 02/14/24: Biden's memory is failing. So is Trump's. The question is whose flaws are more dangerous
• 02/07/24: Will Biden's 'Goldilocks' airstrikes against Iran-backed militias work?
• 12/06/23: Will Joe survive leftists --- and Gaza?
• 11/22/23: Don't let Xi and Biden's agreements fool you
• 11/08/23: Biden says the US must help Israel and Ukraine succeed --- he's staking his reputation on it
• 11/02/23: Today's wars and the international order
• 10/25/23: Biden says the US must help Israel and Ukraine succeed --- he's staking his reputation on it
• 10/05/23: Biden and Trump want working-class votes. The economy may decide who gets them
• 09/13/23: Zelensky is coming to Washington to ask for more Ukraine aid. Congress should say yes
• 09/13/23: Voters think Biden's too old to run again. Can he persuade them that they're wrong?
• 08/23/23: Canada is recruiting immigrants from Silicon Valley to boost its economy. It might work
• 07/05/23: Bizarre standoff with Wagner Group's Prigozhin weakens Putin. But don't count him out
• 06/27/23: Blinken tried to build a floor under US-China relations. He may have to keep doing it
• 05/09/23: With just weeks left to strike a deal, it's time to worry about the debt ceiling
• 05/02/23: A centrist, third-party alternative for 2024 is a nice idea --- but a nightmare in practice
• 04/25/23: Trump seems to have a firm grip on GOP polls --- but his rivals think they can do better
• 04/04/23: Ukraine is counting on its spring offensive against Russia. Biden has a stake in it too
• 03/22/23: Silicon Valley Bank's collapse may be a blessing in disguise
• 03/07/23: DeSantis wants to displace Trump as the GOP's 2024 nominee. But he has hurdles to overcome
• 02/21/23: Biden's 2024 presidential campaign harks back to past Dem triumphs
• 02/14/23: Chinese balloon is gone, but it's still making US-China relations harder to manage
• 01/24/23: Biden said the pandemic is over. But, aw shucks!, the pandemic just won't cooperate
• 01/17/23: The war in Ukraine could become a long, frozen conflict. Are we ready for that?
• 01/10/23: The real winner from the House fight?
• 12/28/22: Why Trump will never go to jail over Jan. 6
• 12/20/22: Democracy around the world is looking a little healthier, at least next to the alternative
• 12/13/22: Biden's policy makes Ukraine fight by rules Russia doesn't follow
• 12/09/22: Iran protests have shoved the nuclear issue off center stage. It will be back
• 09/20/22: Biden sent the wrong message on COVID. He can still fix it
• 09/20/22: Putin's brutality in Ukraine can get worse. Get ready for a chilly winter
• 09/13/22: China's economy is slowing, its population aging. That could make it dangerous
• 06/28/22: To deter China on Taiwan, Biden needs to reassure
• 05/24/22: India has become a US partner in countering China --- a limited partner, that is
• 05/11/22: Slow Joe's premature self-congratulation won't help the US in Ukraine
• 05/03/22: Can the US deter Putin from using his arsenal of battlefield nuclear weapons in Ukraine?
• 04/08/22:Biden's budget is big. Dems will vote to make it bigger
• 03/22/22: Ukraine's resistance offers a useful lesson to Taiwan
• 03/15/22: China wanted to appear neutral between Russia and Ukraine. It isn't
• 02/22/21: Who needs an invasion? Putin's offensive against Ukraine has been underway for a long time
• 02/09/21: If Putin wants an exit from the Ukraine crisis, the offramps are open
• 11/30/21: Biden wants to focus on China. Putin has another idea
• 11/23/21: Our oldest president just turned 79. He might have something to learn from the second-oldest
• 11/16/21: Can Biden and Xi talk their way out of a slide into conflict?
• 10/13/21: Congress has a chance to take bipartisan action on Facebook. Don't let it slip away
• 09/24/21: Can Dems win on crime issues with murders rising? Biden thinks so
• 06/29/21: Can Dems win on crime issues with murders rising? Biden thinks so
• 04/20/21:Afghanistan's war -- and America's stakes in it -- won't end when the troops leave
• 03/31/21: Here's why our new cold war with China could be a good thing
• 02/25/21: Sen. Joe Manchin drives Dems crazy. Here's why they need more senators like him
• 08/11/20: Goodbye to traditional political conventions --- and good riddance

• 05/19/20: We won't end COVID-19 with 'test and trace'
• 04/07/20: Joe Biden is stuck in his basement. It just might help him win
• 03/10/20: Where did Bernie's revolution go wrong?
• 03/05/20: Dems give Trump good reason to smile
• 02/18/20: Who will be the Un-Bernie?
• 02/11/20: Buttigieg wants to be the Goldilocks candidate. It just might work
• 01/21/20: The world according to Bernie
• 09/04/19: Trump's draft deal with the Taliban looks ugly, but it may be the best we can get
• 04/22/19: Something is missing from media-fawning Buttigieg campaign --- his stance on major issues
• 03/14/19: Biden, If He Runs, Will Face A Cruel Irony

Doyle McManus
Los Angeles Times
(TNS)

Doyle McManus is an American journalist, columnist, who appears often on Public Broadcasting Service's Washington Week.