Don't let Xi and Biden's agreements fool you

In a world beset by wars in Gaza and Ukraine, it's good news when two superpowers step back from frictions that increased the danger of another war in Asia.

That's what happened last week when President Joe Biden met with China's Xi Jinping at a country estate in the ridges west of Silicon Valley.

The two presidents met after a year of frosty noncommunication, touched off by China's suspected espionage balloon that wandered across U.S. airspace last winter, by aggressive Chinese military actions in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, and by U.S. restrictions on advanced technology.

The presidents agreed to bury a few of their differences for the simple reason that neither needs another crisis right now.

Beijing's stock has been falling literally and figuratively. Its economy, once the world's powerhouse, has slowed to a low-for-China growth rate of 5%. Foreign investors are pulling money out of the country, a reversal of a decades-long trend.

On the diplomatic front, Xi appears to have recognized that he needs to soften China's image as a bully, which has driven other countries into the arms of the United States.

Biden also hoped to ratchet down tensions. In the coming presidential election year, he doesn't want to contend with a third foreign policy crisis on top of Gaza and Ukraine. He probably won't get much credit from voters for lowering friction with China, but he might win points if Xi delivers on his promise to choke off the supply of chemicals used in fentanyl production.

Xi acceded to U.S. requests on other issues, too. He agreed to reopen talks among the two countries' military leaders, including a "red line" for communication in emergencies like near-collisions in the waters and airspace around Taiwan.

Even before the summit opened, China agreed to strengthen cooperation with the United States on climate change. And Xi agreed to open talks on managing the dangers of artificial intelligence in military systems.

The Chinese leader was clearly on a charm offensive. He told American business leaders that China wants to be "a partner and a friend," not an adversary. He even threw in the possibility of sending pandas to the San Diego Zoo.

Those were easy concessions; they don't cost much in economic or political terms.

Still, China watchers were skeptical about how much Beijing will actually deliver.

"It's a little early to pop the cork on the Champagne," said Bonnie Glaser, a China scholar at the German Marshall Fund. "I'm not convinced that they are actually going to take serious action to prevent military accidents. They don't want to eliminate all the risks for the U.S. military if it operates near their coastline. I'm not sure they're going to answer the phone in an emergency."

Whether China keeps its specific promises should be easy to measure. If there's a reduction in the supply of ingredients for fentanyl, we'll know it. If Chinese officers show up for joint military conferences, we'll see that — although it's unclear how much cooperation will result.

"They've never taken it all that seriously in the past," warned Bates Gill, executive director of the Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis.

And if a FedEx cargo plane arrives with pandas aboard, we'll know that, too.

The more important test is whether those small steps lead to larger openings such as cooperation on nuclear arms control or peace efforts in Gaza and Ukraine.

"The Biden administration is testing the proposition that we can have intense competition and cooperate with China at the same time," Glaser said. "These agreements have at least created opportunities for the two countries to demonstrate that they can cooperate in some areas."

But it's equally noteworthy that there was no discernible movement on the big, fundamental issues that divide the two countries — beginning with their military standoffs over Taiwan and the South China Sea.

That's where collisions — both figurative and literal — are not only possible but likely, and where basic differences are impossible to paper over.

"This meeting hasn't altered the fundamentals of the relationship," Gill said. "There's a big chasm over issues that aren't going to get settled by military dialogues or actions on fentanyl."

In superpower relationships like this one, breakthroughs don't often happen.

The test is whether collisions can be averted, and whether those that occur can be managed more successfully than the months-long spat over the spy balloon — not whether the two countries agree to share symphony orchestras or pandas.

Breakthroughs would be nice. But when they aren't available, stability will do fine.

(COMMENT, BELOW)

Previously:
• 11/08/23: Biden says the US must help Israel and Ukraine succeed --- he's staking his reputation on it
• 11/02/23: Today's wars and the international order
• 10/25/23: Biden says the US must help Israel and Ukraine succeed --- he's staking his reputation on it
• 10/05/23: Biden and Trump want working-class votes. The economy may decide who gets them
• 09/13/23: Zelensky is coming to Washington to ask for more Ukraine aid. Congress should say yes
• 09/13/23: Voters think Biden's too old to run again. Can he persuade them that they're wrong?
• 08/23/23: Canada is recruiting immigrants from Silicon Valley to boost its economy. It might work
• 07/05/23: Bizarre standoff with Wagner Group's Prigozhin weakens Putin. But don't count him out
• 06/27/23: Blinken tried to build a floor under US-China relations. He may have to keep doing it
• 05/09/23: With just weeks left to strike a deal, it's time to worry about the debt ceiling
• 05/02/23: A centrist, third-party alternative for 2024 is a nice idea --- but a nightmare in practice
• 04/25/23: Trump seems to have a firm grip on GOP polls --- but his rivals think they can do better
• 04/04/23: Ukraine is counting on its spring offensive against Russia. Biden has a stake in it too
• 03/22/23: Silicon Valley Bank's collapse may be a blessing in disguise
• 03/07/23: DeSantis wants to displace Trump as the GOP's 2024 nominee. But he has hurdles to overcome
• 02/21/23: Biden's 2024 presidential campaign harks back to past Dem triumphs
• 02/14/23: Chinese balloon is gone, but it's still making US-China relations harder to manage
• 01/24/23: Biden said the pandemic is over. But, aw shucks!, the pandemic just won't cooperate
• 01/17/23: The war in Ukraine could become a long, frozen conflict. Are we ready for that?
• 01/10/23: The real winner from the House fight?
• 12/28/22: Why Trump will never go to jail over Jan. 6
• 12/20/22: Democracy around the world is looking a little healthier, at least next to the alternative
• 12/13/22: Biden's policy makes Ukraine fight by rules Russia doesn't follow
• 12/09/22: Iran protests have shoved the nuclear issue off center stage. It will be back
• 09/20/22: Biden sent the wrong message on COVID. He can still fix it
• 09/20/22: Putin's brutality in Ukraine can get worse. Get ready for a chilly winter
• 09/13/22: China's economy is slowing, its population aging. That could make it dangerous
• 06/28/22: To deter China on Taiwan, Biden needs to reassure
• 05/24/22: India has become a US partner in countering China --- a limited partner, that is
• 05/11/22: Slow Joe's premature self-congratulation won't help the US in Ukraine
• 05/03/22: Can the US deter Putin from using his arsenal of battlefield nuclear weapons in Ukraine?
• 04/08/22:Biden's budget is big. Dems will vote to make it bigger
• 03/22/22: Ukraine's resistance offers a useful lesson to Taiwan
• 03/15/22: China wanted to appear neutral between Russia and Ukraine. It isn't
• 02/22/21: Who needs an invasion? Putin's offensive against Ukraine has been underway for a long time
• 02/09/21: If Putin wants an exit from the Ukraine crisis, the offramps are open
• 11/30/21: Biden wants to focus on China. Putin has another idea
• 11/23/21: Our oldest president just turned 79. He might have something to learn from the second-oldest
• 11/16/21: Can Biden and Xi talk their way out of a slide into conflict?
• 10/13/21: Congress has a chance to take bipartisan action on Facebook. Don't let it slip away
• 09/24/21: Can Dems win on crime issues with murders rising? Biden thinks so
• 06/29/21: Can Dems win on crime issues with murders rising? Biden thinks so
• 04/20/21:Afghanistan's war -- and America's stakes in it -- won't end when the troops leave
• 03/31/21: Here's why our new cold war with China could be a good thing
• 02/25/21: Sen. Joe Manchin drives Dems crazy. Here's why they need more senators like him
• 08/11/20: Goodbye to traditional political conventions --- and good riddance

• 05/19/20: We won't end COVID-19 with 'test and trace'
• 04/07/20: Joe Biden is stuck in his basement. It just might help him win
• 03/10/20: Where did Bernie's revolution go wrong?
• 03/05/20: Dems give Trump good reason to smile
• 02/18/20: Who will be the Un-Bernie?
• 02/11/20: Buttigieg wants to be the Goldilocks candidate. It just might work
• 01/21/20: The world according to Bernie
• 09/04/19: Trump's draft deal with the Taliban looks ugly, but it may be the best we can get
• 04/22/19: Something is missing from media-fawning Buttigieg campaign --- his stance on major issues
• 03/14/19: Biden, If He Runs, Will Face A Cruel Irony

Doyle McManus
Los Angeles Times
(TNS)

Doyle McManus is an American journalist, columnist, who appears often on Public Broadcasting Service's Washington Week.