Blinken tried to build a floor under US-China relations. He may have to keep doing it

For months, the two superpowers have clashed over a wide range of issues: the alleged Chinese spy balloon that wandered across the United States in February, U.S. attempts to block China from advanced semiconductor technology, and military near-collisions at sea and in the air.

Both countries agreed they needed to stop the rivalry from spiraling into open conflict and "build a floor" under the relationship — which is exactly what President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping said they had already done at a summit meeting eight months ago. That floor didn't stay built — hence last week's call for a repairman.

By that modest standard, Blinken succeeded. The floor has been patched, but it's still pretty shaky.

The secretary of State asked for more frequent meetings, and he got that. But he also asked for direct exchanges between the two countries' military leaders, a priority he called "hugely important" — and the Chinese turned that down flat. And Xi deferred action on a request that should have been even easier: to curb Chinese-made chemicals that help produce the killer drug fentanyl.

"It's good that they recognized that they need to talk when the relationship is veering into dangerous territory," said Bates Gill, a China expert at the Asia Society in New York. "But talking is still going to be very difficult."

The drive toward peaceful coexistence still looks accident-prone. Only a day after Blinken left Beijing, Biden touched off a brief furor when he told donors that Xi hadn't known about the alleged spy balloon, which he called "a great embarrassment for [a] dictator." A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson called the remark "absurd and irresponsible."

The underlying problem, deeper than any Biden gaffe, is that the two countries don't merely have different goals; they view the world from different premises.

In Xi's view, China is rising toward its rightful role as Asia's dominant country and the world's leading economic power, while the United States is a nation in decline.

U.S. officials understandably don't buy that narrative. They correctly argue that China has bullied its smaller neighbors, stolen Western technology and engaged in unfair trade practices.

Even when they try to bridge those differences, the two governments often manage to talk past each other.

When Biden entered the White House in 2021, his aides tried to come up with a useful, perhaps inoffensive framework for their approach to China. As Blinken put it: "We'll compete with confidence, cooperate when we can and confront when we must."

The Chinese hated it.

"They see 'competition' as meaning there's a winner and a loser," Gill said. "They think our version of competition is about America winning and China losing."

Beyond those differences, several major disagreements between the two countries are probably insoluble in the foreseeable future.

China believes it has an inalienable right to take over Taiwan; the United States has long been committed to helping the independent island defend itself.

Xi's economic ambitions focus on making China a high-tech colossus; Biden believes U.S. security requires blocking Beijing from advanced semiconductor technology.

Now add the Biden administration's success building alliances with other countries — including India, whose prime minister, Narendra Modi, was feted at the White House last week — and the European Union, even though it's China's biggest economic partner.

Xi's regime hasn't done as well at making friends. China's only real allies are Russia and North Korea.

All of these factors make it hard to find space for U.S.-Chinese cooperation, even when it should be relatively easy.

For example, Blinken's request for military contacts to prevent accidental conflicts fell on deaf ears because the Chinese fear it's a trap.

"They don't want to approach the issue from the standpoint of international law, because that might give us the right to fly or sail where they don't want us," said Bonnie Glaser of the German Marshall Fund. "If it became safe for us to conduct these flights, they'd see that as a win for us."

The clearest outcome of Blinken's trip will be a visit to Washington by China's foreign minister, Qin Gang — and, with luck, a meeting between Biden and Xi in San Francisco this fall.

But their agenda will be a familiar one: reducing the chances of U.S.-China conflict by repairing the same shaky floorboards again and again.

(COMMENT, BELOW)

Previously:
• 05/09/23: With just weeks left to strike a deal, it's time to worry about the debt ceiling
• 05/02/23: A centrist, third-party alternative for 2024 is a nice idea --- but a nightmare in practice
• 04/25/23: Trump seems to have a firm grip on GOP polls --- but his rivals think they can do better
• 04/04/23: Ukraine is counting on its spring offensive against Russia. Biden has a stake in it too
• 03/22/23: Silicon Valley Bank's collapse may be a blessing in disguise
• 03/07/23: DeSantis wants to displace Trump as the GOP's 2024 nominee. But he has hurdles to overcome
• 02/21/23: Biden's 2024 presidential campaign harks back to past Dem triumphs
• 02/14/23: Chinese balloon is gone, but it's still making US-China relations harder to manage
• 01/24/23: Biden said the pandemic is over. But, aw shucks!, the pandemic just won't cooperate
• 01/17/23: The war in Ukraine could become a long, frozen conflict. Are we ready for that?
• 01/10/23: The real winner from the House fight?
• 12/28/22: Why Trump will never go to jail over Jan. 6
• 12/20/22: Democracy around the world is looking a little healthier, at least next to the alternative
• 12/13/22: Biden's policy makes Ukraine fight by rules Russia doesn't follow
• 12/09/22: Iran protests have shoved the nuclear issue off center stage. It will be back
• 09/20/22: Biden sent the wrong message on COVID. He can still fix it
• 09/20/22: Putin's brutality in Ukraine can get worse. Get ready for a chilly winter
• 09/13/22: China's economy is slowing, its population aging. That could make it dangerous
• 06/28/22: To deter China on Taiwan, Biden needs to reassure
• 05/24/22: India has become a US partner in countering China --- a limited partner, that is
• 05/11/22: Slow Joe's premature self-congratulation won't help the US in Ukraine
• 05/03/22: Can the US deter Putin from using his arsenal of battlefield nuclear weapons in Ukraine?
• 04/08/22:Biden's budget is big. Dems will vote to make it bigger
• 03/22/22: Ukraine's resistance offers a useful lesson to Taiwan
• 03/15/22: China wanted to appear neutral between Russia and Ukraine. It isn't
• 02/22/21: Who needs an invasion? Putin's offensive against Ukraine has been underway for a long time
• 02/09/21: If Putin wants an exit from the Ukraine crisis, the offramps are open
• 11/30/21: Biden wants to focus on China. Putin has another idea
• 11/23/21: Our oldest president just turned 79. He might have something to learn from the second-oldest
• 11/16/21: Can Biden and Xi talk their way out of a slide into conflict?
• 10/13/21: Congress has a chance to take bipartisan action on Facebook. Don't let it slip away
• 09/24/21: Can Dems win on crime issues with murders rising? Biden thinks so
• 06/29/21: Can Dems win on crime issues with murders rising? Biden thinks so
• 04/20/21:Afghanistan's war -- and America's stakes in it -- won't end when the troops leave
• 03/31/21: Here's why our new cold war with China could be a good thing
• 02/25/21: Sen. Joe Manchin drives Dems crazy. Here's why they need more senators like him
• 08/11/20: Goodbye to traditional political conventions --- and good riddance

• 05/19/20: We won't end COVID-19 with 'test and trace'
• 04/07/20: Joe Biden is stuck in his basement. It just might help him win
• 03/10/20: Where did Bernie's revolution go wrong?
• 03/05/20: Dems give Trump good reason to smile
• 02/18/20: Who will be the Un-Bernie?
• 02/11/20: Buttigieg wants to be the Goldilocks candidate. It just might work
• 01/21/20: The world according to Bernie
• 09/04/19: Trump's draft deal with the Taliban looks ugly, but it may be the best we can get
• 04/22/19: Something is missing from media-fawning Buttigieg campaign --- his stance on major issues
• 03/14/19: Biden, If He Runs, Will Face A Cruel Irony

Doyle McManus
Los Angeles Times
(TNS)

Doyle McManus is an American journalist, columnist, who appears often on Public Broadcasting Service's Washington Week.