Trump seems to have a firm grip on GOP polls --- but his rivals think they can do better

WASHINGTON — Last week, a Wall Street Journal poll reported that former President Donald Trump had opened a wide lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the nascent contest for the Republican presidential nomination.

In a two-candidate matchup, Trump drew 51% compared with 38% for DeSantis.

That was one of several polls suggesting that Trump is firmly on top of the GOP race right now.

Yet every week this month, other potential candidates have popped up in Iowa and New Hampshire, hoping to discover that conservative donors and voters are yearning for alternatives.

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie stumped last week in New Hampshire, telling GOP voters he's the kind of candidate they need.

The week before that, Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina announced that he was forming a campaign exploratory committee, a formal step toward candidacy.

And New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, a leading GOP moderate, used a CNN appearance to muse about his future. "I think I could do the job," he said of the presidency.

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has formally announced her candidacy. So has former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson. Former Vice President Mike Pence is expected to jump in too.

That's seven viable potential challengers to Trump, and it's only April.

If the race is already locked up, why are so many otherwise sensible politicians volunteering to tangle with a former president who'll subject them to a buzz saw of insults?

Simple: In their estimation, this race may be more open than it looks.

"Trump is obviously the favorite, but he's beatable," Republican strategist Alex Conant said. "He's beatable because the race isn't static. The poll numbers today are not what they will be six months from now."

GOP pollster Whit Ayres agreed and pointed to evidence that primary voters are open to other candidates.

In focus groups, he said, he's encountered "people who voted for Trump, who like what he did as president, but they don't think Trump can win this time. … They want somebody who has a different temperament."

Ayres estimates that roughly a third of Republicans are unshakable "Always Trump" loyalists.

But a larger chunk of the GOP electorate, about 60%, consists of people who voted for Trump in 2016 or 2020 but are willing to consider alternatives — a group he calls "Maybe Trump."

They're a potential majority in Republican primaries, and that makes them the key to the nomination.

Polls suggest Ayres is right.

In last week's Wall Street Journal survey, for example, Trump was the choice of 51% of Republican voters when tested against DeSantis — but only 29% said they would "definitely" stick with the former president.

Other polls also suggest the ranks of Trump loyalists have eroded. In an Associated Press-NORC survey this month, 37% of Republican voters said they had a "very favorable" opinion of Trump — a drop from 47% in July 2021.

The challengers' pitch to voters isn't a rejection of Trump's policies, which all of them broadly endorse. It's a practical argument that he's unlikely to win a general election against President Biden or any other Democrat.

Haley delivered a gentle version of that message in Iowa this month.

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"We have to elect someone who can win the general election," she told voters in Des Moines. "That requires a new generational leader. That requires leaving the baggage, the drama and the status quo of the past."

Christie has characteristically been more pugnacious.

Trump "failed us as a president," he told voters in New Hampshire last week. "Joe Biden is a product of Trump's failures."

Most other potential candidates, including DeSantis, have steered clear of directly criticizing Trump.

It's far too early to forecast the outcome, of course. The first real contest, the Iowa caucuses, is more than nine months away. The first GOP debate, in Milwaukee, will come in August, followed by a second at the Reagan library in Simi Valley.

"Most primary voters aren't really paying attention yet," said Conant, who worked on Florida Sen. Marco Rubio's 2016 presidential campaign. "The debates will be the first real test."

Meanwhile, the candidates are shadow-boxing in what's known as the invisible primary: appealing to donors, trying applause lines on voters and defining their still-blurry visions of post-Trump Republicanism.

For DeSantis, that appears to be Trumpism 2.0, with a focus on the culture wars. For Haley, Scott and Pence, it's an attempt at a kinder, gentler Trumpism. For Christie, Sununu and Hutchinson, it's more like a return to pre-Trump conservatism.

But all are arguing that their party will have a brighter future if it's under new management — and all are refusing to accept current polling as the final word.

No matter what you think of their policies, give them credit for at least one thing: They're offering GOP voters an alternative to four more years of the Trump Show.

(COMMENT, BELOW)

Previously:
• 04/04/23: Ukraine is counting on its spring offensive against Russia. Biden has a stake in it too
• 03/22/23: Silicon Valley Bank's collapse may be a blessing in disguise
• 03/07/23: DeSantis wants to displace Trump as the GOP's 2024 nominee. But he has hurdles to overcome
• 02/21/23: Biden's 2024 presidential campaign harks back to past Dem triumphs
• 02/14/23: Chinese balloon is gone, but it's still making US-China relations harder to manage
• 01/24/23: Biden said the pandemic is over. But, aw shucks!, the pandemic just won't cooperate
• 01/17/23: The war in Ukraine could become a long, frozen conflict. Are we ready for that?
• 01/10/23: The real winner from the House fight?
• 12/28/22: Why Trump will never go to jail over Jan. 6
• 12/20/22: Democracy around the world is looking a little healthier, at least next to the alternative
• 12/13/22: Biden's policy makes Ukraine fight by rules Russia doesn't follow
• 12/09/22: Iran protests have shoved the nuclear issue off center stage. It will be back
• 09/20/22: Biden sent the wrong message on COVID. He can still fix it
• 09/20/22: Putin's brutality in Ukraine can get worse. Get ready for a chilly winter
• 09/13/22: China's economy is slowing, its population aging. That could make it dangerous
• 06/28/22: To deter China on Taiwan, Biden needs to reassure
• 05/24/22: India has become a US partner in countering China --- a limited partner, that is
• 05/11/22: Slow Joe's premature self-congratulation won't help the US in Ukraine
• 05/03/22: Can the US deter Putin from using his arsenal of battlefield nuclear weapons in Ukraine?
• 04/08/22:Biden's budget is big. Dems will vote to make it bigger
• 03/22/22: Ukraine's resistance offers a useful lesson to Taiwan
• 03/15/22: China wanted to appear neutral between Russia and Ukraine. It isn't
• 02/22/21: Who needs an invasion? Putin's offensive against Ukraine has been underway for a long time
• 02/09/21: If Putin wants an exit from the Ukraine crisis, the offramps are open
• 11/30/21: Biden wants to focus on China. Putin has another idea
• 11/23/21: Our oldest president just turned 79. He might have something to learn from the second-oldest
• 11/16/21: Can Biden and Xi talk their way out of a slide into conflict?
• 10/13/21: Congress has a chance to take bipartisan action on Facebook. Don't let it slip away
• 09/24/21: Can Dems win on crime issues with murders rising? Biden thinks so
• 06/29/21: Can Dems win on crime issues with murders rising? Biden thinks so
• 04/20/21:Afghanistan's war -- and America's stakes in it -- won't end when the troops leave
• 03/31/21: Here's why our new cold war with China could be a good thing
• 02/25/21: Sen. Joe Manchin drives Dems crazy. Here's why they need more senators like him
• 08/11/20: Goodbye to traditional political conventions --- and good riddance

• 05/19/20: We won't end COVID-19 with 'test and trace'
• 04/07/20: Joe Biden is stuck in his basement. It just might help him win
• 03/10/20: Where did Bernie's revolution go wrong?
• 03/05/20: Dems give Trump good reason to smile
• 02/18/20: Who will be the Un-Bernie?
• 02/11/20: Buttigieg wants to be the Goldilocks candidate. It just might work
• 01/21/20: The world according to Bernie
• 09/04/19: Trump's draft deal with the Taliban looks ugly, but it may be the best we can get
• 04/22/19: Something is missing from media-fawning Buttigieg campaign --- his stance on major issues
• 03/14/19: Biden, If He Runs, Will Face A Cruel Irony

Doyle McManus
Los Angeles Times
(TNS)

Doyle McManus is an American journalist, columnist, who appears often on Public Broadcasting Service's Washington Week.