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July 1st, 2025

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Putin's brutality in Ukraine can get worse. Get ready for a chilly winter

Doyle McManus

By Doyle McManus Los Angeles Times/(TNS)

Published Sept. 20, 2022

Putin's brutality in Ukraine can get worse. Get ready for a chilly winter
WASHINGTON — Russia's imperious president, Vladimir Putin, may have just endured his worst week since the collapse of the Soviet Union, which he says was the greatest tragedy of the 20th century.

His vaunted army, including a tank force once considered one of Russia's best, collapsed in the face of a Ukrainian offensive in eastern Ukraine. Some Russian soldiers fled after ditching their uniforms and donning civilian clothes they stole from homes, according to local residents.

In southern Ukraine, Russian units defending the strategic city of Kherson struggled to hold their positions against persistent Ukrainian attacks.

Putin even faced what sounded like tough questioning from his most important ally, China's President Xi Jinping.

"We understand your questions and concerns" about Ukraine, he told Xi at a summit meeting in the central Asian city of Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

When Putin ordered his army to invade Ukraine in February, he saw a historic opportunity to reassemble the core of the Soviet Union and appeared to anticipate a rapid victory.

That plan failed when Ukraine, bolstered by Western military aid and U.S. intelligence, halted Russia's attempt to seize its capital, Kiev.

Now Putin's Plan B, the conquest of eastern and southern Ukraine, is teetering on the edge of failure as well.

Some cheerleaders have hailed Ukraine's victory at Izyum, an important railway junction in the east, as the turning point of the war. That's premature. Russia holds about one-fifth of Ukraine's territory and has more troops it can deploy, although their quality is uncertain.

"Despite the euphoria, this ain't over yet," Alexander Vershbow, a former U.S. ambassador to Russia, told me last week. "Putin is obviously furious that his commanders have failed … but that doesn't mean he'll give up. He can still escalate in many ways."

So what can we expect from Putin now? Vershbow offered a forecast.

Putin won't capitulate; that would mean the end of his rule.

He likely will intensify the death and destruction Russia has inflicted on Ukraine's civilians.

Putin's career has been marked by success in wars waged against weaker opponents. He came to power in 1999 by ordering a midwinter siege of Grozny, capital of the Russian republic of Chechnya, in a savage war to suppress Muslim separatists. In 2008, he sent the army into neighboring Georgia; in 2014, he sent troops into eastern Ukraine and annexed the Crimean peninsula.

In those wars, his forces often inflicted casualties on civilians as a deliberate tactic.

His approach in Ukraine has fit the same pattern. It just hasn't worked as well against a well-led, well-trained and well-equipped opponent.

"We're going to see a further escalation of brutality," Vershbow said. "They've already launched heavy bombing of civilian infrastructure. ... Some (Russian) officials say they want to drive millions of Ukrainians out of the country."

Putin's goal, he said, is to "turn this back into a war of attrition … and hope that over time, war weariness drives the Ukrainians to quit."

To accomplish that, some of Putin's hawkish supporters have demanded a full mobilization, meaning a draft to replenish the army and a formal declaration of war.

But Putin aides have said conscription is not being considered.

The government has continued to reassure Russians that this is a limited "special military operation" and has even prohibited describing it as a "war."

"He's still desperately trying to avoid mass mobilization," Vershbow said. "A draft would send protesters into the streets in Moscow. Even then, it takes months and months to train new troops."

Michael Kofman, a Russia expert at CNA, a defense think tank, suggested that Putin might opt for a "partial mobilization," extending current soldiers' enlistment contracts and drafting recent veterans with needed skills.

"Partial mobilization is possible, but they may be lousy troops," Vershbow said.

As for nuclear, chemical or biological weapons, most military and foreign policy experts say Putin is unlikely to use them unless his survival is directly at stake.

"The problem with most of the escalatory options, up to and including nukes, is that they may simply unify Europe, cast Putin himself as a Hitlerian monster and accelerate Western weapons supplies to Ukraine," said Stephen Sestanovich, a former National Security Council official now at Columbia University.

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Putin's other hope is to win the war not on the battlefield but in Western Europe, where Moscow has cut the supply of natural gas to squeeze Germany and other consuming countries that have sent weapons to Ukraine.

So far, the energy war has had surprisingly little effect. One recent poll found that 70% of Germans support continued aid to Ukraine, despite climbing gas prices. In the United States, the Gallup Poll found a similar level of support, 76%.

The real test, however, will come this winter, when the need for gas to heat homes will spike.

On both fronts, Putin hopes that inflicting pain on noncombatants can bring him victory. He believes Russians are better fighters than Ukrainians and more resilient in winter than Europeans or Americans. The challenge for the West is to prove him wrong.

(COMMENT, BELOW)

Previously:
09/13/22: China's economy is slowing, its population aging. That could make it dangerous
06/28/22: To deter China on Taiwan, Biden needs to reassure
05/24/22: India has become a US partner in countering China --- a limited partner, that is
05/11/22: Slow Joe's premature self-congratulation won't help the US in Ukraine
05/03/22: Can the US deter Putin from using his arsenal of battlefield nuclear weapons in Ukraine?
04/08/22:Biden's budget is big. Dems will vote to make it bigger
03/22/22: Ukraine's resistance offers a useful lesson to Taiwan
03/15/22: China wanted to appear neutral between Russia and Ukraine. It isn't
02/22/21: Who needs an invasion? Putin's offensive against Ukraine has been underway for a long time
02/09/21: If Putin wants an exit from the Ukraine crisis, the offramps are open
11/30/21: Biden wants to focus on China. Putin has another idea
11/23/21: Our oldest president just turned 79. He might have something to learn from the second-oldest
11/16/21: Can Biden and Xi talk their way out of a slide into conflict?
10/13/21: Congress has a chance to take bipartisan action on Facebook. Don't let it slip away
09/24/21: Can Dems win on crime issues with murders rising? Biden thinks so
06/29/21: Can Dems win on crime issues with murders rising? Biden thinks so
04/20/21:Afghanistan's war -- and America's stakes in it -- won't end when the troops leave
03/31/21: Here's why our new cold war with China could be a good thing
02/25/21: Sen. Joe Manchin drives Dems crazy. Here's why they need more senators like him
08/11/20: Goodbye to traditional political conventions --- and good riddance

05/19/20: We won't end COVID-19 with 'test and trace'
04/07/20: Joe Biden is stuck in his basement. It just might help him win
03/10/20: Where did Bernie's revolution go wrong?
03/05/20: Dems give Trump good reason to smile
02/18/20: Who will be the Un-Bernie?
02/11/20: Buttigieg wants to be the Goldilocks candidate. It just might work
01/21/20: The world according to Bernie
09/04/19: Trump's draft deal with the Taliban looks ugly, but it may be the best we can get
04/22/19: Something is missing from media-fawning Buttigieg campaign --- his stance on major issues
03/14/19: Biden, If He Runs, Will Face A Cruel Irony

Doyle McManus
Los Angeles Times
(TNS)

Doyle McManus is an American journalist, columnist, who appears often on Public Broadcasting Service's Washington Week.