A centrist, third-party alternative for 2024 is a nice idea --- but a nightmare in practice

Last week's NBC News poll confirmed a consensus: Hardly anyone is yearning for this rematch. A whopping 70% of Americans don't want Biden to run, including 51% of Democrats. Almost as many, 60%, don't want Trump to run, including about a third of Republicans.

But Americans are inventive. Can't some political entrepreneur find a way out of this dilemma?

Enter the Washington-based group No Labels, which has done admirable work promoting bipartisan cooperation in Congress.

Its leaders say they've been mortally disappointed by Biden and Trump, and they're determined to offer a third-party alternative.

In 2016, Trump pledged "to be a break from the stale version of conservatism that had previously dominated the GOP," the group's founder, former Democratic fundraiser Nancy Jacobson, wrote last year. Likewise, in 2020, Biden vowed "to steer Democrats away from their activist base toward unity."

Yet "both presidents ended up caving largely to their supporters on the various extremes," she said.

Jacobson's big idea is to put a new party on the ballot and nominate a bipartisan ticket chosen from the center, such as Sen. Joe Manchin III, a West Virginia Democrat, and former Gov. Larry Hogan, a Maryland Republican — both of whom have talked with No Labels and haven't ruled out running.

Jacobson, who once worked for Bill Clinton and Al Gore, says she hopes to raise $70 million and get a ticket on the ballot in all 50 states. No Labels has already qualified as a party in Arizona, Colorado, Oregon and Alaska.

In a three-way race, she noted, a candidate doesn't need a majority to win a state's electoral votes. "All you need is 34%," she said.

"This is a unique American moment," she told me last week. "Can you imagine a Democrat and a Republican walking arm-in-arm down Pennsylvania Avenue?"

It's an appealing picture, even if the strolling heroes are the not-quite-charismatic Manchin and Hogan. What could go wrong?

Plenty, worried Democrats warn.

For one thing, history strongly suggests that a third party can't win — as in, it's never happened. The closest anyone has ever come was Theodore Roosevelt in 1912, with 27%. The unintended result: He split the Republican vote and delivered the White House to Democrat Woodrow Wilson. More recently, Ross Perot managed to win 19% in 1992. Nobody else has come close. The lesson: 34% is harder than it looks.

That means a third-party ticket would almost surely be a spoiler, taking just enough votes from one of the two major-party candidates to tip the outcome. That's arguably what happened in 2000, when Gore lost the decisive state of Florida to George W. Bush by 537 votes. (Ralph Nader was a third-party candidate.) And in 2016, when Hillary Clinton lost Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania to Trump by less than 1%. (Green Party candidate Jill Stein was the wild card then.)

The 2024 presidential election promises to be close; head-to-head polls show Biden and Trump evenly matched. Early polls aren't predictive, of course, but five of the last six presidential elections have been won by margins of less than 5%. There's no reason to expect this one will be different.

Democrats worry that Biden voters will be less committed and more likely to drift toward a third party than Trump's supporters.

That's reflected in the NBC poll: Almost 70% of Republican voters said they were determined to vote for Trump, no matterhow many indictments he's facing.

"A third party would probably take more votes from Biden than Trump," said William A. Galston, a former Clinton aide who worked with No Labels for a decade but has split from the group over its presidential project.

Many Republicans agree, although they've been less vocal about it. A third-party candidate like Manchin would "be most likely to help Trump," Rich Lowry, editor of the conservative National Review, wrote recently.

The biggest problem with Jacobson's vision is more basic: The choice between Biden and Trump isn't just a coin flip between alternative policies. Trump has publicly proposed the "termination" of parts of the Constitution that get in his way. Biden, whatever his flaws, is committed to preserving our basic institutions.

"There is no equivalence between President Biden and a former president who threatens the survival of our constitutional order," Galston said. "The risks of a second Trump presidency are simply too high to take chances."

Jacobson says No Labels is alert to those dangers and won't nominate a candidate unless there's a clear path toward a win.

"We are committed that we will not have this experiment spoil" the election, she said. "If it looks like it's going to spoil … there are offramps." Meaning No Labels could withdraw from the race.

"This is an insurance policy," she added. "What happens if something happens to Biden?"

But offramps don't always stay open. Once a party is on the ballot, it may not be easy to take it off.

A centrist third-party ticket may sound appealing in theory. In practice, it looks less like an insurance policy and more like a landmine.

(COMMENT, BELOW)

Previously:
• 04/25/23: Trump seems to have a firm grip on GOP polls --- but his rivals think they can do better
• 04/04/23: Ukraine is counting on its spring offensive against Russia. Biden has a stake in it too
• 03/22/23: Silicon Valley Bank's collapse may be a blessing in disguise
• 03/07/23: DeSantis wants to displace Trump as the GOP's 2024 nominee. But he has hurdles to overcome
• 02/21/23: Biden's 2024 presidential campaign harks back to past Dem triumphs
• 02/14/23: Chinese balloon is gone, but it's still making US-China relations harder to manage
• 01/24/23: Biden said the pandemic is over. But, aw shucks!, the pandemic just won't cooperate
• 01/17/23: The war in Ukraine could become a long, frozen conflict. Are we ready for that?
• 01/10/23: The real winner from the House fight?
• 12/28/22: Why Trump will never go to jail over Jan. 6
• 12/20/22: Democracy around the world is looking a little healthier, at least next to the alternative
• 12/13/22: Biden's policy makes Ukraine fight by rules Russia doesn't follow
• 12/09/22: Iran protests have shoved the nuclear issue off center stage. It will be back
• 09/20/22: Biden sent the wrong message on COVID. He can still fix it
• 09/20/22: Putin's brutality in Ukraine can get worse. Get ready for a chilly winter
• 09/13/22: China's economy is slowing, its population aging. That could make it dangerous
• 06/28/22: To deter China on Taiwan, Biden needs to reassure
• 05/24/22: India has become a US partner in countering China --- a limited partner, that is
• 05/11/22: Slow Joe's premature self-congratulation won't help the US in Ukraine
• 05/03/22: Can the US deter Putin from using his arsenal of battlefield nuclear weapons in Ukraine?
• 04/08/22:Biden's budget is big. Dems will vote to make it bigger
• 03/22/22: Ukraine's resistance offers a useful lesson to Taiwan
• 03/15/22: China wanted to appear neutral between Russia and Ukraine. It isn't
• 02/22/21: Who needs an invasion? Putin's offensive against Ukraine has been underway for a long time
• 02/09/21: If Putin wants an exit from the Ukraine crisis, the offramps are open
• 11/30/21: Biden wants to focus on China. Putin has another idea
• 11/23/21: Our oldest president just turned 79. He might have something to learn from the second-oldest
• 11/16/21: Can Biden and Xi talk their way out of a slide into conflict?
• 10/13/21: Congress has a chance to take bipartisan action on Facebook. Don't let it slip away
• 09/24/21: Can Dems win on crime issues with murders rising? Biden thinks so
• 06/29/21: Can Dems win on crime issues with murders rising? Biden thinks so
• 04/20/21:Afghanistan's war -- and America's stakes in it -- won't end when the troops leave
• 03/31/21: Here's why our new cold war with China could be a good thing
• 02/25/21: Sen. Joe Manchin drives Dems crazy. Here's why they need more senators like him
• 08/11/20: Goodbye to traditional political conventions --- and good riddance

• 05/19/20: We won't end COVID-19 with 'test and trace'
• 04/07/20: Joe Biden is stuck in his basement. It just might help him win
• 03/10/20: Where did Bernie's revolution go wrong?
• 03/05/20: Dems give Trump good reason to smile
• 02/18/20: Who will be the Un-Bernie?
• 02/11/20: Buttigieg wants to be the Goldilocks candidate. It just might work
• 01/21/20: The world according to Bernie
• 09/04/19: Trump's draft deal with the Taliban looks ugly, but it may be the best we can get
• 04/22/19: Something is missing from media-fawning Buttigieg campaign --- his stance on major issues
• 03/14/19: Biden, If He Runs, Will Face A Cruel Irony

Doyle McManus
Los Angeles Times
(TNS)

Doyle McManus is an American journalist, columnist, who appears often on Public Broadcasting Service's Washington Week.