Bizarre standoff with Wagner Group's Prigozhin weakens Putin. But don't count him out

And then, a perplexing reversal. After denouncing the mutiny as "treason," Putin agreed to allow its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, to take exile in neighboring Belarus. Prigozhin, presumably realizing his mercenaries couldn't conquer Moscow without help from regular army units, submitted.

Putin, once seen as an all-powerful autocrat, seemed to have suffered a humiliating blow to his authority.

But don't count Putin out — not yet, anyway.

That's what a growing number of Russia experts said last week as the dust settled and a modicum of perspective set in.

"Putin faces a lot of problems, to be sure," said Stephen Sestanovich, a professor of international diplomacy at Columbia University. "But it looks as if he's still got most of the assets he needs to address them."

"People would like to find new evidence that Putin is vulnerable, but it may be overstated," warned Andrew S. Weiss of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "The power of wishful thinking."

These Russia scholars aren't defending Putin, the brutality of his regime or his catastrophic decision to invade Ukraine.

"There's no better argument for term limits than Vladimir Putin," Sestanovich said.

They're merely noting that he has survived tough challenges before, and that after 23 years in power, he's unlikely to collapse without a fight.

Much of what happened in the bizarre standoff with Prigozhin remains murky. The boss of the Wagner Group, a so-called private military company, was rebelling against Putin's order that he subject his mercenaries to the command of the regular armed forces.

The Wall Street Journal has reported that Prigozhin intended to kidnap the Russian defense minister and army chief of staff to press his case. Prigozhin may also have expected other military officers to rally to his side; when that didn't happen, he recognized his cause was lost.

The deeper mystery is why Putin's intelligence services apparently didn't warn him of the plot and why other military units failed to block the mercenaries' march on Moscow.

By the time Prigozhin's men were within 125 miles of the capital, "Putin was staring down the barrel of a gun," Sestanovich said. "He had an overriding goal, which was to avoid shooting in the streets of Moscow. That would have been vivid proof that he had failed."

"Putin's brand is stability," Sestanovich explained. "What he needs above all is to convey normalcy … [and] a sense that he is back in charge."

Once the outcome was clear, officials in Moscow rushed to declare loyalty to Putin. Russia's military and intelligence services launched investigations to determine what went wrong. Gen. Sergei Surovikin, the air force commander who is close to Prigozhin, is reportedly being interrogated.

Meanwhile, Putin has launched a charm offensive, staging a sudden flurry of public appearances after three years of seclusion during the COVID-19 pandemic. His propaganda machine is downplaying the mutiny.

It's even possible, Sestanovich said, that the mutiny has shocked Putin into recognizing that he had lost touch with his country's politics.

"This has been a kind of wake-up heart attack for him," Sestanovich suggested. "He needs to make everybody feel that they're still benefiting from his regime — a pretty tough challenge."

Meanwhile, his war against Ukraine has continued unabated. The high-level turmoil in Moscow had no discernible effect on the battlefields to the south. Russian units continued to defend the Ukrainian territory they have occupied behind a fearsome system of minefields and tank traps called the "Surovikin line" — ironically, it was built by the general under interrogation. No units were reported to have deserted or defected.

If anything, the episode appeared likely to secure the jobs of Prigozhin's main targets, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and army chief of staff Gen. Valery Gerasimov, even though both have been widely criticized as incompetent.

Another sign of normalcy, Putin-style: The Wagner organization's recruiting office in Moscow, which closed briefly during the mutiny, reopened and told callers it was accepting new applicants, according to the BBC and Russian media outlets.

That suggests that Putin has decided not to disband Wagner, which has not only been more brutal on the battlefield than the regular army, but also more successful at attracting recruits, partly because it pays higher wages.

If Wagner were to disappear, Putin's war machine could lose as many as 15,000 of its most experienced fighters.

Some Western officials have expressed impatience that Ukraine's offensive isn't moving faster. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has acknowledged that progress has been "slower than desired."

But Ukrainian officers have noted that finding weak spots in Russian defenses will take time, and that the fighting season runs until November.

There's not much the United States and its allies can do to affect Putin's fate in Moscow — except, perhaps, stay out of the way.

But they can keep military and economic aid flowing to Ukraine to increase its chances of success.

Putin isn't likely to fall anytime soon, but he's still more vulnerable than he was before the mutiny. This is no time to give him any breathing room.

(COMMENT, BELOW)

Previously:
• 06/27/23: Blinken tried to build a floor under US-China relations. He may have to keep doing it
• 05/09/23: With just weeks left to strike a deal, it's time to worry about the debt ceiling
• 05/02/23: A centrist, third-party alternative for 2024 is a nice idea --- but a nightmare in practice
• 04/25/23: Trump seems to have a firm grip on GOP polls --- but his rivals think they can do better
• 04/04/23: Ukraine is counting on its spring offensive against Russia. Biden has a stake in it too
• 03/22/23: Silicon Valley Bank's collapse may be a blessing in disguise
• 03/07/23: DeSantis wants to displace Trump as the GOP's 2024 nominee. But he has hurdles to overcome
• 02/21/23: Biden's 2024 presidential campaign harks back to past Dem triumphs
• 02/14/23: Chinese balloon is gone, but it's still making US-China relations harder to manage
• 01/24/23: Biden said the pandemic is over. But, aw shucks!, the pandemic just won't cooperate
• 01/17/23: The war in Ukraine could become a long, frozen conflict. Are we ready for that?
• 01/10/23: The real winner from the House fight?
• 12/28/22: Why Trump will never go to jail over Jan. 6
• 12/20/22: Democracy around the world is looking a little healthier, at least next to the alternative
• 12/13/22: Biden's policy makes Ukraine fight by rules Russia doesn't follow
• 12/09/22: Iran protests have shoved the nuclear issue off center stage. It will be back
• 09/20/22: Biden sent the wrong message on COVID. He can still fix it
• 09/20/22: Putin's brutality in Ukraine can get worse. Get ready for a chilly winter
• 09/13/22: China's economy is slowing, its population aging. That could make it dangerous
• 06/28/22: To deter China on Taiwan, Biden needs to reassure
• 05/24/22: India has become a US partner in countering China --- a limited partner, that is
• 05/11/22: Slow Joe's premature self-congratulation won't help the US in Ukraine
• 05/03/22: Can the US deter Putin from using his arsenal of battlefield nuclear weapons in Ukraine?
• 04/08/22:Biden's budget is big. Dems will vote to make it bigger
• 03/22/22: Ukraine's resistance offers a useful lesson to Taiwan
• 03/15/22: China wanted to appear neutral between Russia and Ukraine. It isn't
• 02/22/21: Who needs an invasion? Putin's offensive against Ukraine has been underway for a long time
• 02/09/21: If Putin wants an exit from the Ukraine crisis, the offramps are open
• 11/30/21: Biden wants to focus on China. Putin has another idea
• 11/23/21: Our oldest president just turned 79. He might have something to learn from the second-oldest
• 11/16/21: Can Biden and Xi talk their way out of a slide into conflict?
• 10/13/21: Congress has a chance to take bipartisan action on Facebook. Don't let it slip away
• 09/24/21: Can Dems win on crime issues with murders rising? Biden thinks so
• 06/29/21: Can Dems win on crime issues with murders rising? Biden thinks so
• 04/20/21:Afghanistan's war -- and America's stakes in it -- won't end when the troops leave
• 03/31/21: Here's why our new cold war with China could be a good thing
• 02/25/21: Sen. Joe Manchin drives Dems crazy. Here's why they need more senators like him
• 08/11/20: Goodbye to traditional political conventions --- and good riddance

• 05/19/20: We won't end COVID-19 with 'test and trace'
• 04/07/20: Joe Biden is stuck in his basement. It just might help him win
• 03/10/20: Where did Bernie's revolution go wrong?
• 03/05/20: Dems give Trump good reason to smile
• 02/18/20: Who will be the Un-Bernie?
• 02/11/20: Buttigieg wants to be the Goldilocks candidate. It just might work
• 01/21/20: The world according to Bernie
• 09/04/19: Trump's draft deal with the Taliban looks ugly, but it may be the best we can get
• 04/22/19: Something is missing from media-fawning Buttigieg campaign --- his stance on major issues
• 03/14/19: Biden, If He Runs, Will Face A Cruel Irony

Doyle McManus
Los Angeles Times
(TNS)

Doyle McManus is an American journalist, columnist, who appears often on Public Broadcasting Service's Washington Week.