Will Biden's 'Goldilocks' airstrikes against Iran-backed militias work?

The recent U.S. airstrikes against Iran-backed militias were the largest President Jordan Biden has ordered since he took office, a pointedly large-scale retaliation for a drone attack that killed three U.S. soldiers in Jordan.

But they were also designed as what some officials puckishly call a "Goldilocks" option — large enough to do major damage, but not so big that Iran would feel compelled to respond.

The Friday strikes in Iraq and Syria did considerable damage to missile sites and other installations used by Iran's allies in those countries. On Saturday, the United States and Britain hit the Iran-supplied Houthi rebels in Yemen who have been attacking international shipping in the Red Sea.

But if the aim was to deter Iran and its proxies once and for all, it's unlikely to succeed.

The goal of the offensive was more than simple retaliation. It was to destroy as much of the Iranian proxy forces' weaponry as possible and deter the groups from future attacks — all without igniting a major war with their sponsors in Tehran.

"The goal here is to get these attacks to stop," National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said. "We are not looking for a war with Iran."

In that sense, the operations appeared to succeed, at least in the short run.

Iran condemned the attacks but did not threaten any retaliation. Instead, it warned the United States against attacking two Iranian ships in the Red Sea that are suspected of being used by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Even before the airstrikes, the largest Iran-backed militant group in Iraq announced that it was "suspending" attacks against American targets. (That didn't spare the group, the Kataib Hezbollah, from being hit.)

But over the long run, Iran and its proxies are almost certain to regroup and look for new opportunities to attack U.S. military installations and other American interests in the region.

The powerful Revolutionary Guard forces are too deeply committed to the goal of expelling the United States from the Middle East to stand down for long. The guard's Quds Force has spent decades training and equipping pro-Iran militias in nearby countries.

Moreover, the militias in western Iraq and eastern Syria targeted by the airstrikes have their own reasons for continuing to fight: Expelling the United States from the area is their political brand too.

"They're not robots entirely controlled by Iran," said Vali Nasr of Johns Hopkins University. "They have become the representation of anti-Americanism in Iraq. Every strike and counterstrike strengthens that [status]."

And the continued presence of more than 6,000 U.S. troops in Iraq, Syria and Jordan — a deployment many Americans probably forgot about until the Jan. 28 drone attack killed three at a desert base — still offers a tempting list of targets.

The troops are there as a consequence of the U.S.-led war against Islamic State, the bloodthirsty terrorist group that seized control of much of Iraq and Syria in 2014. The United States, Iraq and other allies defeated Islamic State on the battlefield in 2019. But remnants of the group still roam the deserts of Syria and Iraq, and some 10,000 of its fighters are marooned in Kurdish-run prisons in northeastern Syria because no country will take them in.

Officially, the American deployment in the desert is there to help Iraqi and Kurdish forces prevent Islamic State from returning. But in recent years, the U.S. units have acquired an additional, unofficial mission: keeping an eye on the Revolutionary Guard and its increasingly capable proxy forces. The small U.S. detachments are not authorized or equipped to fight a war against the guard or anyone else.

The Iranian-backed militias have attacked the American units more than 150 times since October with missiles and drones, most of which have missed their targets.

"The militias were established for exactly this purpose," said Charles Lister, an expert on Syria at the Middle East Institute in Washington. "They're local and we're not. They can afford to pursue a long attrition strategy. We don't really have a counter to that."

That has produced a dilemma for U.S. policymakers. The U.S. military presence was never intended to be permanent, but withdrawing now would probably allow Islamic State to resurge.

Republican hawks argue that the problem can be solved easily. "Hit Iran and hit them hard," Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). urged last week. But Graham and his colleagues wouldn't be responsible for the consequences if a major U.S.-Iran war ensued.

That's why the Biden administration went for what it hopes will turn out to be the Goldilocks option. If the airstrikes do enough damage, the Iran-backed militias will at least have fewer drones and missiles to launch at American targets.

"As usual, there are no good options," a former senior official said.

The most likely outcome, experts say, is that the militias will pause — but not for long. That's essentially what happened in 2020 after then-President Trump ordered the assassination of Gen. Qassem Suleimani, the Revolutionary Guard commander, while he was on a visit to Iraq.

At some point, one of those Iran-backed groups is likely to strike again, whether to serve the Islamic Republic's interest or its own.

The cycle of attack and retaliation will begin anew. That's how the Middle East works.

(COMMENT, BELOW)

Previously:
• 12/06/23: Will Joe survive leftists --- and Gaza?
• 11/22/23: Don't let Xi and Biden's agreements fool you
• 11/08/23: Biden says the US must help Israel and Ukraine succeed --- he's staking his reputation on it
• 11/02/23: Today's wars and the international order
• 10/25/23: Biden says the US must help Israel and Ukraine succeed --- he's staking his reputation on it
• 10/05/23: Biden and Trump want working-class votes. The economy may decide who gets them
• 09/13/23: Zelensky is coming to Washington to ask for more Ukraine aid. Congress should say yes
• 09/13/23: Voters think Biden's too old to run again. Can he persuade them that they're wrong?
• 08/23/23: Canada is recruiting immigrants from Silicon Valley to boost its economy. It might work
• 07/05/23: Bizarre standoff with Wagner Group's Prigozhin weakens Putin. But don't count him out
• 06/27/23: Blinken tried to build a floor under US-China relations. He may have to keep doing it
• 05/09/23: With just weeks left to strike a deal, it's time to worry about the debt ceiling
• 05/02/23: A centrist, third-party alternative for 2024 is a nice idea --- but a nightmare in practice
• 04/25/23: Trump seems to have a firm grip on GOP polls --- but his rivals think they can do better
• 04/04/23: Ukraine is counting on its spring offensive against Russia. Biden has a stake in it too
• 03/22/23: Silicon Valley Bank's collapse may be a blessing in disguise
• 03/07/23: DeSantis wants to displace Trump as the GOP's 2024 nominee. But he has hurdles to overcome
• 02/21/23: Biden's 2024 presidential campaign harks back to past Dem triumphs
• 02/14/23: Chinese balloon is gone, but it's still making US-China relations harder to manage
• 01/24/23: Biden said the pandemic is over. But, aw shucks!, the pandemic just won't cooperate
• 01/17/23: The war in Ukraine could become a long, frozen conflict. Are we ready for that?
• 01/10/23: The real winner from the House fight?
• 12/28/22: Why Trump will never go to jail over Jan. 6
• 12/20/22: Democracy around the world is looking a little healthier, at least next to the alternative
• 12/13/22: Biden's policy makes Ukraine fight by rules Russia doesn't follow
• 12/09/22: Iran protests have shoved the nuclear issue off center stage. It will be back
• 09/20/22: Biden sent the wrong message on COVID. He can still fix it
• 09/20/22: Putin's brutality in Ukraine can get worse. Get ready for a chilly winter
• 09/13/22: China's economy is slowing, its population aging. That could make it dangerous
• 06/28/22: To deter China on Taiwan, Biden needs to reassure
• 05/24/22: India has become a US partner in countering China --- a limited partner, that is
• 05/11/22: Slow Joe's premature self-congratulation won't help the US in Ukraine
• 05/03/22: Can the US deter Putin from using his arsenal of battlefield nuclear weapons in Ukraine?
• 04/08/22:Biden's budget is big. Dems will vote to make it bigger
• 03/22/22: Ukraine's resistance offers a useful lesson to Taiwan
• 03/15/22: China wanted to appear neutral between Russia and Ukraine. It isn't
• 02/22/21: Who needs an invasion? Putin's offensive against Ukraine has been underway for a long time
• 02/09/21: If Putin wants an exit from the Ukraine crisis, the offramps are open
• 11/30/21: Biden wants to focus on China. Putin has another idea
• 11/23/21: Our oldest president just turned 79. He might have something to learn from the second-oldest
• 11/16/21: Can Biden and Xi talk their way out of a slide into conflict?
• 10/13/21: Congress has a chance to take bipartisan action on Facebook. Don't let it slip away
• 09/24/21: Can Dems win on crime issues with murders rising? Biden thinks so
• 06/29/21: Can Dems win on crime issues with murders rising? Biden thinks so
• 04/20/21:Afghanistan's war -- and America's stakes in it -- won't end when the troops leave
• 03/31/21: Here's why our new cold war with China could be a good thing
• 02/25/21: Sen. Joe Manchin drives Dems crazy. Here's why they need more senators like him
• 08/11/20: Goodbye to traditional political conventions --- and good riddance

• 05/19/20: We won't end COVID-19 with 'test and trace'
• 04/07/20: Joe Biden is stuck in his basement. It just might help him win
• 03/10/20: Where did Bernie's revolution go wrong?
• 03/05/20: Dems give Trump good reason to smile
• 02/18/20: Who will be the Un-Bernie?
• 02/11/20: Buttigieg wants to be the Goldilocks candidate. It just might work
• 01/21/20: The world according to Bernie
• 09/04/19: Trump's draft deal with the Taliban looks ugly, but it may be the best we can get
• 04/22/19: Something is missing from media-fawning Buttigieg campaign --- his stance on major issues
• 03/14/19: Biden, If He Runs, Will Face A Cruel Irony

Doyle McManus
Los Angeles Times
(TNS)

Doyle McManus is an American journalist, columnist, who appears often on Public Broadcasting Service's Washington Week.