Will Joe survive leftists --- and Gaza?

When Israel pounded Gaza with airstrikes after Hamas launched its Oct. 7 attack, it opened a dramatic divide among Democrats over a war that has claimed thousands of civilian lives.

Progressive activists staged protests across the country, demanded an immediate cease-fire and accused President Joe Biden of complicity in genocide. A handful of Democrats in Congress joined the call for a cease-fire, but stopped short of blaming Biden for Israel's actions.

At the height of the offensive, before last month's week-long pause, polls found that most Democrats and voters under the age of 35 opposed Israel's offensive, while most Republicans supported it.

An NBC News poll reported that a stunning 70% of young voters disapproved of Biden's handling of the war — and 46% said they prefer former President Donald Trump in next year's election, with only 42% for Biden. Other surveys found Biden narrowly ahead among young voters, but by far less than the 20-percentage-point margin he scored in 2020 exit polls.

With Biden's standing already sagging, those numbers suggested that he faced a serious problem among part of his voter base.

But now, strategists and pollsters say, those worries have begun to look exaggerated. The divide among Democrats hasn't deepened. The progressives' protests haven't spread. And the NBC poll appears to have been an outlier.

Most Democrats in Congress have rallied behind Biden's policy, which combines support for Israel with pressure to minimize civilian casualties and work toward peace negotiations with Palestinians other than Hamas. When progressives in the House of Representatives organized a letter urging Biden to seek a "robust bilateral cease-fire," only 24 of 213 Democrats signed on — about 11%.

Meanwhile, Biden's diplomacy evolved. In October, the president rallied international support for Israel in the aftermath of Hamas' attacks. But after Israel's airstrikes caused more than 13,300 deaths — a number that now exceeds 15,000 — he went public to urge its leaders to reduce the civilian toll.

Biden administration officials said what looked like a shift was not a response to domestic political pressures, but part of their approach all along. Still, the increasing emphasis on protecting civilians helped defuse the angst among Democrats.

On Friday, Israel resumed its airstrikes after negotiations to exchange more Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners broke down. But Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said Israeli leaders had agreed to "put a premium on protecting civilians" and to continue allowing humanitarian aid supplies to enter the war zone.

The war in Gaza may still have an impact on the presidential election, but it may not be as simple as low turnout among Democratic voters unhappy about Biden's support for Israel.

"Traditionally, foreign policy issues don't have much visibility in presidential campaigns unless American lives are at stake," Republican pollster Whit Ayres observed. "But the way a president handles foreign crisis often serves [as] a proxy for his competence and ability to handle the job."

Ayres noted that Biden's reputation as a foreign policy expert took a hit in 2021 after the chaotic withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, an episode that appeared to drive the president's popularity downward.

Trump, who is most likely to be the Republican nominee next year, has already aired a television commercial attacking Biden as "a weak leader," including video of troops leaving Kabul and of Biden stumbling on the stairs of Air Force One.

Biden might be able to rebut that argument if his diplomacy ends the war in Gaza and opens the way to peace talks. He can already claim some success in preventing the war from spreading to Lebanon or other countries.

Perhaps unfairly, though, voters don't seem to reward foreign policy success as often as they punish foreign policy failure. President George H.W. Bush helped bring the Cold War to a peaceful end in 1991, but he lost his job the next year thanks to a brief recession.

"Biden's success at rounding up support for Ukraine and Israel has not translated into higher approval ratings at home," Ayers said. "Inflation, immigration and crime all rank far higher [among voters] than foreign policy."

Israel's war in Gaza, and how Biden manages its consequences, will matter. But the race will still hinge mostly on how voters feel about the economy and other domestic issues — not diplomacy.

(COMMENT, BELOW)

Previously:
• 11/22/23: Don't let Xi and Biden's agreements fool you
• 11/08/23: Biden says the US must help Israel and Ukraine succeed --- he's staking his reputation on it
• 11/02/23: Today's wars and the international order
• 10/25/23: Biden says the US must help Israel and Ukraine succeed --- he's staking his reputation on it
• 10/05/23: Biden and Trump want working-class votes. The economy may decide who gets them
• 09/13/23: Zelensky is coming to Washington to ask for more Ukraine aid. Congress should say yes
• 09/13/23: Voters think Biden's too old to run again. Can he persuade them that they're wrong?
• 08/23/23: Canada is recruiting immigrants from Silicon Valley to boost its economy. It might work
• 07/05/23: Bizarre standoff with Wagner Group's Prigozhin weakens Putin. But don't count him out
• 06/27/23: Blinken tried to build a floor under US-China relations. He may have to keep doing it
• 05/09/23: With just weeks left to strike a deal, it's time to worry about the debt ceiling
• 05/02/23: A centrist, third-party alternative for 2024 is a nice idea --- but a nightmare in practice
• 04/25/23: Trump seems to have a firm grip on GOP polls --- but his rivals think they can do better
• 04/04/23: Ukraine is counting on its spring offensive against Russia. Biden has a stake in it too
• 03/22/23: Silicon Valley Bank's collapse may be a blessing in disguise
• 03/07/23: DeSantis wants to displace Trump as the GOP's 2024 nominee. But he has hurdles to overcome
• 02/21/23: Biden's 2024 presidential campaign harks back to past Dem triumphs
• 02/14/23: Chinese balloon is gone, but it's still making US-China relations harder to manage
• 01/24/23: Biden said the pandemic is over. But, aw shucks!, the pandemic just won't cooperate
• 01/17/23: The war in Ukraine could become a long, frozen conflict. Are we ready for that?
• 01/10/23: The real winner from the House fight?
• 12/28/22: Why Trump will never go to jail over Jan. 6
• 12/20/22: Democracy around the world is looking a little healthier, at least next to the alternative
• 12/13/22: Biden's policy makes Ukraine fight by rules Russia doesn't follow
• 12/09/22: Iran protests have shoved the nuclear issue off center stage. It will be back
• 09/20/22: Biden sent the wrong message on COVID. He can still fix it
• 09/20/22: Putin's brutality in Ukraine can get worse. Get ready for a chilly winter
• 09/13/22: China's economy is slowing, its population aging. That could make it dangerous
• 06/28/22: To deter China on Taiwan, Biden needs to reassure
• 05/24/22: India has become a US partner in countering China --- a limited partner, that is
• 05/11/22: Slow Joe's premature self-congratulation won't help the US in Ukraine
• 05/03/22: Can the US deter Putin from using his arsenal of battlefield nuclear weapons in Ukraine?
• 04/08/22:Biden's budget is big. Dems will vote to make it bigger
• 03/22/22: Ukraine's resistance offers a useful lesson to Taiwan
• 03/15/22: China wanted to appear neutral between Russia and Ukraine. It isn't
• 02/22/21: Who needs an invasion? Putin's offensive against Ukraine has been underway for a long time
• 02/09/21: If Putin wants an exit from the Ukraine crisis, the offramps are open
• 11/30/21: Biden wants to focus on China. Putin has another idea
• 11/23/21: Our oldest president just turned 79. He might have something to learn from the second-oldest
• 11/16/21: Can Biden and Xi talk their way out of a slide into conflict?
• 10/13/21: Congress has a chance to take bipartisan action on Facebook. Don't let it slip away
• 09/24/21: Can Dems win on crime issues with murders rising? Biden thinks so
• 06/29/21: Can Dems win on crime issues with murders rising? Biden thinks so
• 04/20/21:Afghanistan's war -- and America's stakes in it -- won't end when the troops leave
• 03/31/21: Here's why our new cold war with China could be a good thing
• 02/25/21: Sen. Joe Manchin drives Dems crazy. Here's why they need more senators like him
• 08/11/20: Goodbye to traditional political conventions --- and good riddance

• 05/19/20: We won't end COVID-19 with 'test and trace'
• 04/07/20: Joe Biden is stuck in his basement. It just might help him win
• 03/10/20: Where did Bernie's revolution go wrong?
• 03/05/20: Dems give Trump good reason to smile
• 02/18/20: Who will be the Un-Bernie?
• 02/11/20: Buttigieg wants to be the Goldilocks candidate. It just might work
• 01/21/20: The world according to Bernie
• 09/04/19: Trump's draft deal with the Taliban looks ugly, but it may be the best we can get
• 04/22/19: Something is missing from media-fawning Buttigieg campaign --- his stance on major issues
• 03/14/19: Biden, If He Runs, Will Face A Cruel Irony

Doyle McManus
Los Angeles Times
(TNS)

Doyle McManus is an American journalist, columnist, who appears often on Public Broadcasting Service's Washington Week.