It is one of the great paradoxes of our time: Americans have never been richer or more negative about the economy.
More people are upper middle class than ever, and even lower income Americans are richer by almost every measure compared to previous generations. And yet more than three in five Americans say the economy is not working for them.
Some of this can be explained by the fact that, yes, aspects of the economy do not work for a lot of Americans. And some of it is not based on the economy at all. When it comes to overall life satisfaction, research shows Americans tend to overrate the importance of money. Regardless, this perspective matters, because if greater prosperity does not make people feel better about the economy, that can become a self fulfilling prophecy.
Economists have puzzled over the relationship between income and happiness for decades. Easterlin's paradox, named for development economist Richard Easterlin, is that wealthier people tend to be happier than poor people, but richer countries don't feel much happier.
There are several possible explanations for why this might be. It could be that today's America is already so rich that gains in income no longer pack the same punch. Once we got to the point where we weren't starving, have a place to live and long life expectancy, the benefits of a new iPhone or a better AI chatbot don't matter that much. Or, as economists Daniel Kahneman and Angus Deaton have famously argued, there are diminishing returns to income. Their 2010 paper showed that income above $75,000 a year in 2026 dollars, it would be more than $115,000 does not add much to happiness.
This is a time of material abundance. Americans can get anything they want delivered to their door, sometimes the same day. Flat screen TVs, dishwashers, airplane travel, and air conditioning are no longer available only to the wealthy. Yet even for the affluent, some critical services housing, childcare, education, cutting edge medicine are still very expensive. These costs can be especially burdensome to middle class Americans who earn too much to get government assistance. Meanwhile, the inflation of the last few years has introduced more economic uncertainty into people's lives.
Then there are the constantly rising expectations for what is considered an acceptable living standard, which outpace Americans' (also rising) incomes. No matter how comfortable someone is, there is always a set of people with more wealth and prestige. Americans still do better economically than their parents, once you control for inflation and family size. But there is a population of "downwardly mobile " elites who come from wealthy families and may be upper middle class, but are not quite as successful as their parents and are priced out of many goods and services their parents had. Resentment between the top 19% and the top 1% is not, by definition, a problem that afflicts most Americans. But that top 20% has outsized political and cultural power, especially in urban areas.
Technology is also fueling a feeling of dissatisfaction. Social media is full of people posting about their luxury vacations or expensive handbags, or even just their expensive little cakes, and most Americans can't afford these things.
A sense of belonging and community is also a big component of happiness. Studies of the Easterlin paradox find that it's important for everyone, rich and poor, to have a community they can rely on. It's not just about economic security. The China shock did destroy jobs in some parts of America, even as it created new jobs in other parts and made goods cheaper. If you just cared about jobs and income, you could argue it was worth it. But trade and technology also broke up communities and economic ecosystems. The change left people more isolated and self reliant.
There are policies, like zoning reform to make housing cheaper, that can address some of the anxiety about the economy. But much of the dissatisfaction has non economic roots, and politicians are feeling pressured to respond with policies that purport to take control over the economy and provide a sense of safety price controls, immigration restrictions, tariffs and so on.
Americans should be wary. If these are the solutions, soon they will not only be unhappy, but poorer too.
(COMMENT, BELOW)
Allison Schrager, a Bloomberg columnist, is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute and a contributing editor of City Journal.
Previously:
• Government intervention is often the cause of 'market failures', not the remedy for them<
• Reality of math is catching up with the reality of aging
• The influencer economy has crossed the linet
• AI might be a great investment --- but not for the government
• Don't rely on the Bank of Mom and Dad
• Can't find a job after graduation? Blame WFH, not AI
• Trump accounts are a new way to redistribute wealth
• Trump accounts are a new way to redistribute wealth
• Taxing the wealthy won't reduce their power
• A wartime economy would be different this time
• Why aren't Americans working as hard as they used to?
• $100,000 in Social Security benefits is too much
• The Laffer Curve is no longer a punch line
• Yes, Americans are saving enough for retirement
• Is free trade worth the cost in lives lost?
• Mamdani's New York is flirting with fiscal nihilism
• America's human capital is eroding
• Musk is wrong about AI and retirement --- You still need to save
• Go ahead and resent boomers but for the right reasons
• Raiding your 401(k) to buy a house should be an option
• Americans are living in the worst of all tax worlds
• Think of college like you would a junk bond
• The economy needs a little bit of unfairness
• The pension revolution is better for savers
• Affordability isn't a hoax. It's not a crisis for most, either
• America gets retirement wrong. Can Vanguard fix that?
• The American middle class is shrinking, and that's OK
• Want to buy a home? It's OK to wait till you're 40
• Mamdani is benefiting from New York City's changing workforce
• How can an economy this good feel this bad?
• Why boomers have more money than everyone else
• Democratize private investment?
• Lab-grown diamonds are testing the power of markets
• Inflation ate your free lunch, but you're still better off
• Good debt? Bad debt? There's no such thing
• Megabills didn't break the economy before and won't now
• America's broken politics is breaking economics, too
• A college degree is no longer a risk-free investment
• Break up Columbia? Maybe, and the rest of the Ivy League, too
• Even Dems might like MAGA accounts
• Reality Check about possibile volatility in trade war
• Is this really how American exceptionalism ends?
• The free-market conservative is a vanishing breed
• Shareholder capitalism is back
• Europe's risk aversion comes with consequences
• The Oxford curriculum that American universities need
• Private equity won't diversify your portfolio
• The era of declining interest rates may have come to an end, and many investors don't seem to realize it
• This one weird trick could save the U.S. economy
• The Fed's damage to the housing market may last years
• The future of unions looks very different
• To bring back the office, bring back lunch
• Does it really matter who gets into Harvard?
• Our pensions shouldn't be used to juice the economy
• A soft landing won't mean the economy is safe
• The 30-year mortgage is saving the U.S. economy … or is it?
• The one true secret to successful investing
• Less work, more burn-out
• When did risk become a bad word in the U.S.?
• AI-proofing your career starts in college
• Biden has to learn the same lesson as SVB
• Say it with Rubio: Changing clocks is stupid
• Sure, we'll return to the office in 2023 but not to stores
• How to manage the biggest risk of all: Uncertainty
• If you think U.S. pensions are safe, just wait
• Harry and Meghan and the perils of superstar culture
• Norman Rockwell's economy is never coming back
• Burned by crypto? Don't learn the wrong lesson
• Quiet Quitters are looking in the wrong place for meaningful work
• America's MBAs are the latest skeptics of capitalism
• Generation Z is getting a harsh lesson in stock risk
• The biggest threat to the U.S. economy is policymakers
• Buck up, boomers. You're still better off than your parents
• How to manage the biggest risk of all: uncertainty
• Startup boom is the kind of risk-taking Americans need
• Gen Z is too compliant to achieve greatness
• A bigger child tax credit isn't the poverty solution we need
• Finding your power in a higher-priced world
• The Biden administration's plans to double the tax rate on capital gains will prove costly to all Americans, not just the wealthy
• WARNING: Feel Good Now --- Pay Later: Stimulus is crammed with goodies but makes no economic sense
• The 'Stakeholder' Fallacy: Joe Biden's vision of capitalism is a recipe for failure

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