Dems Face Midterm Disappointment

As they look to the midterm elections, Republicans have reason to worry — but not despair.

They're going to be fighting uphill all the way to hold onto their majority in the House, which they currently control by the razor-thin margin of just six seats.

That includes one member, California Rep. Kevin Kiley, who officially left the GOP but still caucuses with the party.

"Fragile" hardly does justice to the state of the GOP's House majority.

Democrats look at President Donald Trump's approval ratings and exult:

As of early May, exactly six months before the midterms, Trump's approval in the RealClearPolitics polling averages was an anemic 40.7%, and since then polls have shown him slipping further.

Democrats took more than 40 House seats from the GOP in the 2018 midterms, when Trump's numbers were a little better: RealClear's aggregate notched him at 43.6% approval the day before the election.

House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries is just counting down the days until he becomes speaker.

What could go wrong?

Two things might yet thwart Jeffries' ambitions.

One is the Supreme Court, which has overturned the race-based approach to drawing congressional districts that long served to protect Democratic incumbents and carve out blue seats in red states.

The court also slapped down Democrats' attempts to get the federal judiciary to toss out a Virginia Supreme Court decision that killed their dreams of gerrymandering away four Republican seats in that state.

As things stand, when all the mid-decade redistricting across the country is finished, Republicans stand to gain up to 10 House seats.

Though they have to remember what they're actually getting is more Republican-leaning district maps — they still have to close the deal with voters.

But even if they do, 10 more seats won't stop a wave like the one that swept away the Republican House majority Trump enjoyed at the start of his first term.

Yet the second barrier Democrats will have to overcome is that voters just don't behave the way they used to:

For nearly a quarter of a century, the American public exhibited wild swings in party preference in House elections, creating midterm waves in 1994, 2006, 2010 and 2018.

But 2022 broke the pattern:

Joe Biden's aggregate approval in the polls was at 42.2%, and Republicans expected a massive swing in their direction — yet they didn't get it, just as Democrats got no boost in the House two years earlier despite their success in the 2020 presidential election.

Biden claimed record numbers of voters in his race, yet Democrats actually lost seats in the House that year.

Trump's victory in 2024 also didn't bring about much change in the House; Republicans lost two seats.

In other words, the last three elections — in 2020, 2022 and 2024 — have told a tale of surprising stability, with only small adjustments to the numbers of Republicans and Democrats in the House, leading to nerve-rackingly narrow margins of control for each party.

Jeffries should be careful what he wishes for. He might wind up with only a slender majority, one that could be lost if too many geriatric Democrats die in office.

As of a year ago, more than 50 House Democrats were over the age of 70. Three have since died.

Republicans don't have quite as many elderly members in the House, but so small is the GOP majority that even a single maverick member like Thomas Massie can threaten to derail major legislation or trigger new elections for speaker.

Pain has forced Republicans to get serious, however, and Trump has been relentless about imposing discipline on the party.

Massie can attest to that, as can the five Republican state senators who lost their primaries on May 5 after Trump condemned them for opposing a plan to redraw the state's congressional districts to give the GOP a greater edge.

This is another reason to think Republicans have a fighting chance in November:

Despite the headlines in hostile media, the Republican Party is remarkably unified behind Trump, who can end the careers of state senators in Indiana or a United States senator like Bill Cassidy in Louisiana.

Trump can do that because — and only because — the voters are with him.

If House elections have indeed reached a rough equilibrium since 2020, there will be no wave, and even a pickup of just eight to 10 seats through redistricting could save the Republican majority by the skin of its teeth.

Democrats are counting on this November being a replay of 2018, or George W. Bush's disastrous second midterms in 2006.

But look to the primaries so far for a clue: This is a very different Republican Party, and it's well-adapted for the political landscape Trump has remade; in an era of close elections, it's a party that can win.

(COMMENT, BELOW)

Previously:
• 05/12/26: Dems finally come clean 'bout their radical design
• 05/05/26: The Silenced Generation
• 04/28/26:Colleges Are Making Political Violence Worse
• 04/21/26:Immigration Amnesty by Any Other Name
• 04/14/26: A New Extreme in Gerrymandering
• 04/07/26: A New Extreme in Gerrymandering
• 03/17/26: Why Are Senate Dems Making Air Travel Worse?
• 03/10/26: Cuba Should Accept Trump's 'Friendly Takeover'
• 03/03/26: Immigration Enforcement Saves Lives
• 02/24/26: How a Party Offends Its Voters
• 02/17/26: Why Are Anti-ICE Activists Building Borders?
• 02/10/26: A Japanese Lesson for Troubled Britain
• 02/03/26: The Trump Coalition Wins But the GOP Brand Doesn't
• 01/27/26: Canada Should Warm to Trump's Arctic Plans
• 01/20/26: From Rock to Tech, Talent Flees Taxes
• 01/13/26: Woman Who Weaponized Car Against I.C.E Endangered Her Life -- and Yours
• 01/06/26: Tim Walz Personifies Dems' Decline
• 12/30/25: Harvard Says Yes to Discrimination, No to Western Civ
• 12/23/25: JD Vance Gets America's Creed and Heritage Right
• 12/16/25: Trump's Inflation Trap
• 12/09/25: Biden's Immigration Debacle Is the Media's, Too
• 12/02/25: 'Iryna's Law' and the Bad Judges Who Make It Necessary
• 11/26/25: Marjorie Taylor Greene's Exit Is a Warning to Republicans
• 11/19/25: Trump Hasn't Lost Hispanics (Yet)
• 11/11/25: Trump's Tariffs on Trial
• 10/28/25: MAGA Makes Allies Great Again
• 10/21/25: How To Make the AmericaS Great Again
• 10/16/25: Columbus Day Celebrates Our Civilization
• 10/09/25: Why Sharpies Are Made in America Again
• 09/30/25: Assata Shakur and Other Parents of Political Violence
• 09/09/25: Who's Accountable for Autopen Pardons?
• 09/02/25: Gender dysphoria is a mental-illness, NOT an all-encompassing delusion
• 08/26/25: Trump's Industrial Policy Is Realism, Not Socialism
• 08/19/25: Is Gavin Newsom the Dems' Answer to Trump?
• 08/12/25: Just Say No to More Marijuana
• 08/05/25: Will the GOP Make Libs Generous Again?
• 07/30/25: Trump's Trade Lesson for Economists (and the World)
• 07/22/25: Whose Politics Canceled Stephen Colbert?
• 07/08/25: A Big Beautiful Test of GOP Principles and Discipline
• 07/01/25: Dems Need Populism, But Not Zohran's Sort
• 06/25/25: Secure Borders Win Wars Like This One
• 06/18/25: WEIRD Protesters Should Stay Home
• 06/17/25: WEIRD Protesters Should Stay Home
• 06/04/25: State that's long eluded GOP turns toward Trump
• 05/21/24: Trump's Sun Belt Hopes and Rust Belt Needs
• 05/14/24: What Trump Sees in Doug Burgum
• 05/07/24: The Vietnam Era Never Ended for Biden's Party
• 05/06/24: Nationalists of the World, Unite?
• 04/25/24: Foreign Policy Splits
• 04/16/24: How pro-lifers stand to lose everything gained in overturning Roe
• 04/02/24: PBS Misremembers William F. Buckley Jr.
• 04/02/24: Who Wants to Be House Speaker?
• 03/26/24: Trump Hunts for a VP Close to Home
• 03/19/24: Princess Kate and Democracy's Discontents
• 03/12/24: Can Biden Buy the Voters?
• 03/05/24: Veepstakes Give Trump an Edge
• 02/20/24: Do Americans Trust Either Party?
• 02/13/24: Vladimir Putin -- A Passive Aggressor
• 01/23/24: Will 'Lawfare' Take Trump Off the Ballot?
• 01/16/24: Will Africa Save America?
• 01/09/24:'The Sopranos' at 25: A new world tragedy
• 01/02/24: Trump, Biden and a Fight for the Heart
• 12/12/23: What Happened to Ron DeSantis?
• 12/12/23: Biden Looks Doomed -- But Is He?
• 12/05/23: A Test for Trump and His Rivals
• 11/21/23: When Inequality Is Fatal for Men
• 11/14/23: Nevermind, The Battle's Over
• 11/07/23: War in the Dem Party -- and at the Opera
• 10/24/23: Israel's Lesson for 2024: A Lib Crackup
• 10/17/23: Libs' Dilemma: Immigration or Israel?
• 10/10/23: Why Bidenflation Defines Bidenomics
• 10/03/23: Will Gavin Newsom Copy Trump?
• 09/26/23: Biden's a Loser -- but Dems Can't Ditch Him
• 09/19/23: Do Sex Scandals Matter?
• 09/12/23: Cornel West Spells Doom for Biden
• 09/05/23: What Trump Does for Democracy
• 08/2/23: Ramaswamy: A Trump Versus Trump?
• 08/22/23: Take 'Rich Men North of Richmond' Seriously
• 08/16/23: How America Kills Its Own
• 08/08/23: The Biden Pardon That Can Spare America
• 08/01/23: Harding, a consevative for the ages
• 07/25/23: Demography Destiny, for Us and China
• 07/18/23: The Frontrunner Who Looks Like a Loser Is Biden
• 07/11/23: Britain's Bad Example for American Conservatives
• 07/05/23: Could We Still Win a Revolutionary War?
• 06/27/23: Civilizations Clash -- in Ukraine and at Home
• 06/20/23: China Comes for the Caribbean
• 06/13/23: Fertility, Family and Bio-Socialism
• 06/06/23: From American Dream to Orwell's Nightmare
• 05/23/23: Ukraine war is an existential struggle --- for the West
• 05/23/23: Learn the Right Midterm Lessons -- or Lose in 2024
• 05/16/23: Feinstein Today Is Biden Tomorrow
• 05/09/23: Trump, DeSantis and Political Courtship
• 05/02/23: RFK Jr.'s Threat to Biden
• 04/25/23: Biden's Lost Generation
• 04/25/23: Who's In Charge of Clarence Thomas?
• 04/11/23: Beyond AI, Our Cyborg Future
• 04/04/23: 2024: 3 Leaders, 1 Way to Win
• 03/28/23: Climate Science Makes a Bad Religion
• 03/21/23: All the Conspiracy That's Fit to Print