Trump wants Iranians to rise up --- will they?

The reality is more complicated.

For nearly five decades, the Iranian people have lived under a despotic theocracy that has repeatedly threatened the West, vowed to eliminate Israel and sowed violence and terrorism in the Middle East and elsewhere. The regime had, over the years, brutally punished ever-increasing dissent, most recently by killing thousands of protesters who had taken to the streets in January.

Iran had been seriously weakened by Trump's actions last year, when the United States bombed targeted sites in an effort to prevent the state from developing nuclear weapons. Israel, meanwhile, had dismantled Iran's terror proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas, in the wake of the latter's brutal Oct. 7 massacre against the Jewish state — which, with each passing day, looks to be one of the most significant geo-political blunders of the past few centuries. Fears that attacks on Iran could trigger a more widespread world war were unfounded.

Trump is no doubt counting on a similar dynamic regarding these latest strikes, which led to the deaths of at least three Americans. Iran responded by lobbing missiles at Israel and at four Arab nations that host U.S. military bases. But with virtually no ability to stop an air attack, Iran is in no position to put up a serious fight. Neither do its friends — Russia and China — appear eager to come to its defense in any significant fashion.

But the major question remains: What happens next?

Under Iran's constitution, CNN reports, a three-member council would now run the country until the Assembly of Experts selects a new leader. That, of course, risks more of the same repression. It's unlikely that Trump would seek to prosecute a ground war in Iran — and Congress wouldn't go along. Instead, the White House appears to be prodding Iranian reformers to step forward to put their nation on a more sustainable course. But history shows that this will be a difficult task.

The recent protests, however, highlight the depth of unrest. "The country's population, after all, is clearly fed up with the Islamic Republic," Politico reported Sunday. There are back channels within which the United States is certainly supporting Iran's democracy movement. But more must be done. Sen. Ted Cruz last week advocated arming the nation's reformers in an effort to push Iran into the 21st century. Congress should move forward on such legislation.

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