Trump's Gaza deal offers an opportunity to pursue peace

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On my home office wall hangs a framed poster with the word peace in English, Arabic, and Hebrew.

I acquired it in Jerusalem in November 1977 when I was covering Egyptian President Anwar Sadat’s historic visit there, a stunning event that truly changed the Middle East. Once Egypt — then the Arab world’s foremost military power — signed a peace treaty with Israel, any prospect for a future Arab-Israeli ground war came to an end.

The Donald Trump-brokered ceasefire-for-hostages deal in Gaza, for which he deserves full credit, could be the first step toward a similar radical shift in the region. But for now, it is only a bare beginning. It won’t "end the war in Gaza," nor will it create "peace, hopefully everlasting peace," as the president promised.

We can celebrate the freeing of brutalized Israeli hostages and feel relief that starving Gazan civilians will finally gain access to food and medicine. Yet, this is only Phase One of Trump’s 20-point peace plan.

It is Phase Two — which calls for rebuilding Gaza and offering Palestinians a political future — that will determine whether the ceasefire-hostage deal marks more than a brief respite before the next wave of bloodshed.

Having spent decades covering unsuccessful Mideast peace efforts, I am trying to tamp down my cynicism. But here are a few points from history which, if ignored, will likely add Trump’s current triumph to that sad list of failures.

1) If the president is serious about peace and not just investments in a "Gaza Riviera," he will need to keep his attention and pressure on both Israel and Hamas for the long run.

Trump achieved the hostages-for-ceasefire deal only after he became furious enough at Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu to use American leverage. The reason: Israel had conducted a bombing raid on Hamas negotiators in Qatar just as they were meeting to discuss Trump’s peace proposal.

Not only did the president force the Israeli leader to apologize to Qatar’s ruler, but he squeezed the prime minister to halt his bombing campaign to raze Gaza City.

No U.S. leader has ever successfully applied such pressure to Israel. But Trump cannot stop now. Netanyahu pulled out of a phased ceasefire-for-hostages deal earlier this year, resuming the war after a partial release. Israeli media is full of speculation that he might well do the same after all the hostages come home.

Meantime, Netanyahu’s radical-right government partners insist that the war is not over. In a post on X, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich stressed that Israel must ensure the deal is not "hostages in exchange for stopping the war, as Hamas thinks." He added that after the hostages return, Israel must continue "to pursue the true eradication of Hamas and the demilitarization of the Strip, so it no longer poses a threat to Israel." Translation: Restart the war.

Trump is tasking moderate Arab leaders, along with Turkey, to ensure Hamas disarms, to set up a multinational peace force, and to pay for Gaza. He can’t expect them to do their part if he doesn’t check Netanyahu and prevent him from concocting excuses to end the ceasefire.

2) There can be no economic renovation of Gaza without a political horizon for Palestinian self-determination, which Netanyahu vehemently opposes.

Israelis have frequently derided the West Bank and Gaza for not developing a Singapore-like economy. But so long as Israel controls all entrances and exits from those territories, by land, air, and sea, it can hold up imports and exports for political reasons. Workers can be blocked from reaching workplaces. Palestinians aren’t allowed to upgrade their internet networks. Electricity flows can be shut off from Israel.

Palestinian business owners can’t attract investment, farmers and factories can’t move their produce to international markets, Gazan fishermen aren’t allowed to fish for security reasons — the list of restrictions could fill up my column.

Even if Hamas disappears, these restrictions won’t end if a government of Palestinian technocrats is set up in Gaza, as called for in the plan.

When the widely praised technocrat Salam Fayyad became Palestinian prime minister in 2013, based in the West Bank, his reforms were constantly thwarted by Israel for political reasons.

Bottom line: If Trump truly embraces fantasies of a Gaza Riviera without offering the Palestinians hope of emancipation, his plan will soon collapse.

3) Palestinians need a genuine political alternative to Hamas. Trump’s plan calls for the reform of the Palestinian Authority, which is based in the West Bank, and which Arab leaders hope will eventually take control of Gaza. The PA despises Hamas, and its police in the West Bank have helped Israel keep it under control there.

But Netanyahu has spent years trying to destroy the PA (even as he was asking Qatar to fund Hamas in Gaza). He insists the PA will never play a political role.

If similar groups to Hamas are not going to spring up, Palestinians need an alternative political movement. And they need to be convinced that the occupation will someday end.

Trump and a genuine negotiating team would have to press Netanyahu on this, all while convincing Israelis he can shepherd them to peace with the greater Arab world. Too much to hope for? No doubt. But it’s hard to admit that right now.

4) Trump cannot ignore the West Bank. He has told America’s Arab allies that he won’t support Israeli annexation. But radical Jewish settlers are carrying out de facto annexation, leveling villages, uprooting farmers, creating West Bank refugees, and building new settlements. All with the complicity of Netanyahu’s government.

There can be no peace in Gaza if dispossession is in full force in the West Bank. The only politician with the leverage to stop that is Trump.

5) The president must press Netanyahu to control messianic groups in Israel that could, literally, blow up any peace process. In 1982, a Jewish terrorist organization known as the Jewish Underground plotted to destroy the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem, the third-holiest site in Islam.

The plan was eventually abandoned, but messianic groups are growing in strength in Israel. The country’s internal security agency, the Shin Bet (which eventually arrested members of the Jewish Underground back in 1984), will soon have a new head who is unlikely to pursue Jewish extremists. He is a follower himself of one of Israel’s most extreme messianic rabbis.

Again, just as peace requires hindering Palestinian religious extremists such as Hamas, it also requires impeding Israeli Jewish counterparts. This means leaning on Netanyahu to thwart extremist agitation.

In sum, Phase Two of Trump’s plan doesn’t stand a chance unless the president foregoes his tendency to claim victory and move on to the next photo op. Although he has little interest in briefings, he can’t ignore the missteps that tripped up previous peace efforts (about which he probably has no knowledge).

However, if Trump wants that Nobel Peace Prize next year, he will have to learn fast.

(COMMENT, BELOW)

Trudy Rubin
Philadelphia Inquirer
(TNS)

Previously:

• 08/14/24: Putin has the upper hand in meeting with Trump on Ukraine

• 06/09/24: Ukraine's drone attack was more than a morale booster, it showed the new face of modern war

• 06/05/24: US, allies must stop playing 'Patriot games' with Ukraine

• 05/15/24: The biggest story last week was not Stormy Daniels or campus protests

• 11/20/23: Documentary sheds light on Putin's mass murder in Ukraine

• 11/16/23: Even Tlaib should know better

• 9/22/23: Russia's kidnapping of Ukrainian children under the spotlight at United Nations

• 9/22/23: Biden should resolve the blockage of visas for Iraqis and Afghans who helped our troops

• 9/11/23: Even on vacation, there's no escaping Putin's murderous intentions

• 08/18/23: With new weapons slow to arrive from NATO allies, Ukraine surprises Putin with sea drones

• 08/09/23: Lessons from a military funeral in Ukraine

• 07/28/23: As Russian missiles again rain down on Odesa, Putin sneers at the UN and NATO allies

• 07/24/23: Putin is playing a game of food blackmail. The West can't let him win

• 07/19/23: Can Ukraine win the war against Russia? I'm traveling there to find out

• 07/17/23: From hell to Harvard: One Ukrainian's escape and how you can help fulfill her dreams

• 07/11/23: At the NATO summit in Vilnius: Will Biden seize or squander the chance to end Putin's war on Ukraine?

• 04/21/23: The Pentagon documents leak will embolden Putin as he tries to outlast Ukraine

• 03/22/23: The Russian attack on a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone underlines why we must help Ukraine win

• 03/15/23: Will the White House have the courage to propel a Ukrainian victory this year?

• 02/21/23: On the first anniversary of Putin's invasion, Ukraine fights on for its independence and for the security of the West

• 02/17/23: A former Pakistani leader's death, and his wise peace plan that failed

• 02/09/23: Earthquakes killed nearly 12,000 people this week. Three men are partly to blame

• 01/24/23: As Russia murders civilians in Dnipro, why won't NATO send weapons that could end the war?

• 12/28/22: What Zelensky worried about when he addressed a cheering Congress

• 12/13/22: The US-China conflict to watch is the Chip War --- which centers on Taiwan

• 09/14/22: Ukraine scores sudden breakthrough that should energize Western support

• 09/09/22: Queen Elizabeth's death deprives Britain and the world of a rock of stability

• 09/08/22: After Gorbachev's death, Putin wants the world to know he is the 'anti-Gorbi'

• 08/26/22: 6 months after Russia's war vs. Ukraine began, the West still won't give Kiev the weapons to win

• 08/15/22: Ukraine's civilian volunteers work to give aid and rebuild, even as Russia continues to bomb them

• 08/08/22: A trip near the front lines finds Ukrainian troops ready for a battle that could decide the war

• 06/13/22: The critical battles for Ukraine and for America are being fought right here, right now

• 05/02/22: Save Odesa to save the world from hunger and high food prices

• 05/02/22: Bloodless Ukrainian War, not utopian fantasy says one-time largest foreign investor in Russia

• 04/11/22: The only way to end Putin's war crimes

• 03/28/22: Don't let Putin's nuclear and chemical threats stop us from giving Ukraine what it needs

• 03/24/22: An elegy for Mariupol, where I walked six weeks ago. Now razed by Russian bombs

• 03/18/22: Zelensky's brilliant speech should impel Biden and Congress to protect Ukrainian skies

• 03/11/22: Mariupol's bombed maternity hospital exemplifies why NATO should protect Ukraine's skies

• 03/10/22: No 'no-fly zone'? Then NATO must find another way to protect Ukraine's skies

• 03/07/22: The third World War has already started in Ukraine. Europe and the US should wake up

• 03/04/22:Putin must be stopped from turning Kiev into Aleppo

• 03/02/22:Why is Belarus helping Russia invade Ukraine? An explainer on the latest in the conflict

• 02/25/22: What the UN should finally do about Russia

• 02/24/22: Why Putin's Ukraine aggression will change the world --- an explainer on how we got here

• 02/10/22: Ukrainian civilians train for war with cardboard guns: 'We are scared but we are ready

• 01/13/22:Putin wants to reestablish the Russian empire. Can NATO stop him without war?

• 12/10/21: Can Biden and NATO prevent Putin from invading Ukraine? Summit puts it to the test

• 12/02/21: Boris Johnson stirs up new Irish Troubles for his own personal political gains

• 11/22/21: Xi Jinping thinks America is on the rocks. Is he correct?

• 08/18/21: President Biden, get our Afghan allies on evacuation planes

• 08/18/21:The horror of Afghan women abandoned by Biden's troop pullout

• 08/09/21:China is pushing a big COVID-19 lie that makes a new pandemic harder to prevent

• 05/27/21: Punish Belarus leader for Ryanair hijacking before air piracy becomes dictators' new tool

• 04/14/21: Can Beethoven temper the political tensions between US and China?

• 06/01/20: US must stand with Hong Kong against Beijing's efforts to crush its freedoms

• 05/20/20: COVID-19 offers a chance to halt Iran's hostage diplomacy

• 05/21/14: Newscycle spurs visit to country my family fled

• 04/21/14: Blind to Putin's strategy?

• 12/24/13: Obama's Syrian indifference has led to more death and destruction. Meet some real heroes

• 12/13/13: Where liberals have come to love the military

• 12/09/13: The China strategy

• 11/05/13: Return to Iraq is worth a close look

• 10/01/13: Obama's call to Iran: Who was really on the line?

• 09/11/13: How Obama got Syria so wrong

• 07/24/13: It's time for Obama to tell Putin 'nyet'

• 05/15/13: What Russia gave Kerry on Syria --- very little

Trudy Rubin is a columnist and editorial-board member for the Philadelphia Inquirer.