Of course, the most maddening aspect is that a 21-year-old Air National Guardsman and racist gun collector could obtain highly classified documents, and post them to the 20 gamers in a group called Thug Shaker Central, just to show off to his pals. How can any close ally feel safe sharing secrets with a Pentagon that seems to have learned little about plugging leaks since the troves released by Chelsea Manning and Edward Snowden?
But when it comes to Ukraine, the documents — some of which were dated as recently as February — provide a bleak Pentagon assessment of how much territory Kiev can regain in its much-awaited spring counteroffensive. They suggest that without a major influx of munitions, the Ukrainian air defense system might collapse, permitting the Russians to unleash their massive air force, which they have held back for fear of shootdowns.
Moscow may or may not have been aware of Ukraine's weakened air defenses. But the release of this downbeat Pentagon analysis hurts Ukrainian morale at a critical moment. It will surely encourage Vladimir Putin in his belief that he can outlast the Ukrainian military. And it fuels critics who insist — with stunning ignorance of Putin's behavior — that now is the time for negotiations.
Worst of all, these documents tell Putin that the Pentagon is dubious about prospects for Ukrainian success — for totally wrongheaded reasons — and is still unready to make that success possible. They reveal more about the weakness of the Pentagon's strategic thinking than Ukraine's.
For months, Gen. Mark Milley has been urging the Ukrainians to consider negotiation. In November, he contended that "a military victory ... is maybe not achievable and therefore you need to turn to other means."
In that vein, one of the documents, labeled "top secret," contends that the long-awaited counteroffensive will likely result in only "modest territorial gains." Another, dated Feb. 22, said the Ukrainians were "headed towards a stalemate" in taking back the eastern Donbas region. Yet another predicts that the battles will continue into 2024.
Nowhere in these documents is there a sense of urgency in helping Ukraine defeat the Russians by ramping up U.S. or European defense production with the immediacy that would occur if Russia had attacked a NATO member.
Nowhere is there an appreciation that a stalemate entirely benefits Russia, since Putin cares not how many men or how much material he loses. A stalemate provides the possibility for the Kremlin to "win" this war.
If Putin bleeds Ukraine to death, even if he doesn't occupy the entire country, he wins. He will be perfectly content to leave Ukraine a bleeding basket case, its ports either literally or effectively controlled by Russia, destroying its export economy. He could then afford to wait until Europe tired of subsidizing the country, with the expectation that a desperate Ukraine would ultimately fall into his hands.
And nowhere do the documents show any recognition that such a Kremlin "win" would totally upend future security for the United States and Europe. If the West permits Putin to destroy Ukraine, China will understand that it can retake Taiwan by force, and dominate the Pacific. The new world order of aggressive authoritarians will be in full flower.
Yet these documents contain no hint that the Pentagon recognizes it needn't accept a stalemate. Rather, the assumption seems to be that, as in World War II, the Ukrainian army must drive out every Russian soldier via land battles in order to regain its land.
However, the Ukrainian military does not need to take back every inch via ground fighting. It does, however, need to trap the Russian military into an untenable position where it has no option but to retreat.
The U.S. holds the key. It can deliver a key weapons system that can be moved quickly — the long-range munitions known as ATACMS — that can help Ukraine's counteroffensive succeed.
With ATACMS, the Ukrainians could put the Russian-occupied Crimea under range of their missiles. Russia has turned the Crimean peninsula into a huge armed camp, and home to its Black Sea fleet, from which it fires endless missiles into Ukrainian cities and can move man power. Crimean bases and ships dominate the entire Ukrainian coastline.
The Ukrainian military does not need to "invade" Crimea, as many geographically challenged critics claim, but merely to render Russian supply lines to the peninsula inoperable and its occupation untenable. At that point, the Russians would have no choice but to evacuate the jewel in Putin's occupation crown — or else to bargain seriously with Kiev. End of stalemate.
And yet, there was no hint in the leaked documents of reversing the U.S. refusal to deliver Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), which could be delivered to Ukraine much more quickly than tanks or antiaircraft systems.
I totally agree with the brilliant analysis by Andrew Michta, an Atlantic Council fellow who writes: "One of the reasons this war is still ongoing is the West's extreme caution when it comes to resourcing the Ukrainian military with the weapons and munitions it needs to break through enemy lines and render the Russian army combat ineffective.
"The West has given Ukraine enough to survive, but not enough to win."
If one positive outcome could emerge from the leakage of these documents, it would be to shake up the idea of accepting a stalemate.
The time for excuses about Putin's red lines are over. The Kremlin leader has made clear he recognizes that he can't use tactical nukes against Ukraine, which would harm Moscow more than Kiev and infuriate Big Brother China.
So if Ukraine is short of air defenses, "hit them left of launch," tweeted retired Army Gen. Ben Hodges, former commander of U.S. Army forces in Europe — referring to the strategy of destroying a missile's launcher before it has a chance to be fired.
Ukraine has proven it can break Russian forces by using innovate operations. Give them ATACMS, Hodges continued, the long-range strike "capability to deny sanctuary in Crimea for Russian Navy, Air Force who are launching missiles and drones ... against Ukrainian civilians. Make Crimea untenable."
Prove to Putin the leaked documents on Ukraine are just a lot of outdated guff.
(COMMENT, BELOW)
Trudy Rubin
Philadelphia Inquirer
(TNS)
Previously:
• 03/22/23: The Russian attack on a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone underlines why we must help Ukraine win
• 03/15/23: Will the White House have the courage to propel a Ukrainian victory this year?
• 02/21/23: On the first anniversary of Putin's invasion, Ukraine fights on for its independence and for the security of the West
• 02/17/23: A former Pakistani leader's death, and his wise peace plan that failed
• 02/09/23: Earthquakes killed nearly 12,000 people this week. Three men are partly to blame
• 01/24/23: As Russia murders civilians in Dnipro, why won't NATO send weapons that could end the war?
• 12/28/22: What Zelensky worried about when he addressed a cheering Congress
• 12/13/22: The US-China conflict to watch is the Chip War --- which centers on Taiwan
• 09/14/22: Ukraine scores sudden breakthrough that should energize Western support
• 09/09/22: Queen Elizabeth's death deprives Britain and the world of a rock of stability
• 09/08/22: After Gorbachev's death, Putin wants the world to know he is the 'anti-Gorbi'
• 08/26/22: 6 months after Russia's war vs. Ukraine began, the West still won't give Kiev the weapons to win
• 08/15/22: Ukraine's civilian volunteers work to give aid and rebuild, even as Russia continues to bomb them
• 08/08/22: A trip near the front lines finds Ukrainian troops ready for a battle that could decide the war
• 06/13/22: The critical battles for Ukraine and for America are being fought right here, right now
• 05/02/22: Save Odesa to save the world from hunger and high food prices
• 05/02/22: Bloodless Ukrainian War, not utopian fantasy says one-time largest foreign investor in Russia
• 04/11/22: The only way to end Putin's war crimes
• 03/28/22: Don't let Putin's nuclear and chemical threats stop us from giving Ukraine what it needs
• 03/24/22: An elegy for Mariupol, where I walked six weeks ago. Now razed by Russian bombs
• 03/18/22: Zelensky's brilliant speech should impel Biden and Congress to protect Ukrainian skies
• 03/11/22: Mariupol's bombed maternity hospital exemplifies why NATO should protect Ukraine's skies
• 03/10/22: No 'no-fly zone'? Then NATO must find another way to protect Ukraine's skies
• 03/07/22: The third World War has already started in Ukraine. Europe and the US should wake up
• 03/04/22:Putin must be stopped from turning Kiev into Aleppo
• 03/02/22:Why is Belarus helping Russia invade Ukraine? An explainer on the latest in the conflict
• 02/25/22: What the UN should finally do about Russia
• 02/24/22: Why Putin's Ukraine aggression will change the world --- an explainer on how we got here
• 02/10/22: Ukrainian civilians train for war with cardboard guns: 'We are scared but we are ready
• 01/13/22:Putin wants to reestablish the Russian empire. Can NATO stop him without war?
• 12/10/21: Can Biden and NATO prevent Putin from invading Ukraine? Summit puts it to the test
• 12/02/21: Boris Johnson stirs up new Irish Troubles for his own personal political gains
• 11/22/21: Xi Jinping thinks America is on the rocks. Is he correct?
• 08/18/21: President Biden, get our Afghan allies on evacuation planes
• 08/18/21:The horror of Afghan women abandoned by Biden's troop pullout
• 08/09/21:China is pushing a big COVID-19 lie that makes a new pandemic harder to prevent
• 05/27/21: Punish Belarus leader for Ryanair hijacking before air piracy becomes dictators' new tool
• 04/14/21: Can Beethoven temper the political tensions between US and China?
• 06/01/20: US must stand with Hong Kong against Beijing's efforts to crush its freedoms
• 05/20/20: COVID-19 offers a chance to halt Iran's hostage diplomacy
• 05/21/14: Newscycle spurs visit to country my family fled
• 04/21/14: Blind to Putin's strategy?
• 12/24/13: Obama's Syrian indifference has led to more death and destruction. Meet some real heroes
• 12/13/13: Where liberals have come to love the military
• 12/09/13: The China strategy
• 11/05/13: Return to Iraq is worth a close look
• 10/01/13: Obama's call to Iran: Who was really on the line?
• 09/11/13: How Obama got Syria so wrong
• 07/24/13: It's time for Obama to tell Putin 'nyet'
• 05/15/13: What Russia gave Kerry on Syria --- very little
Trudy Rubin is a columnist and editorial-board member for the Philadelphia Inquirer.