Does Joe Biden want to be remembered as the president who lost Ukraine?
That question must be asked as NATO allies prepare to meet at a historic summit in the Lithuanian capital of Vilnius on Tuesday and Wednesday, which will focus on Russian President Vladimir Putin's continued aggression in Ukraine.
This is the moment when NATO members, led by Biden, should be laying out a clear path for Ukraine to join the alliance once the war ends. This is the moment, which, if seized, could plausibly lead to Ukrainian victory by year's end.
This is also the moment when Biden should be announcing that the United States will finally expedite the arrival of critical weapons systems — long-range missiles and F-16 fighter jets — that are vital to the success of Ukraine's counteroffensive.
As of this writing, though, all signs are that Biden will squander the moment, and none of the above will happen. As John Herbst, former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, said during a webinar last week, "Very thin gruel is likely in Vilnius." If so, Biden and NATO will be gifting Putin big time, even as he reels from a failed mutiny attempt by one of his closest allies.
There's still a bit of time for Biden to shift gears and surprise us. Here are the vital steps he should take at the summit to help end Putin's war.
Unequivocally back a victory for Kiev
Make clear that the United States and NATO support a Ukrainian "victory" according to Kiev's definition, which means regaining all territory seized by Russia, including Crimea. The White House keeps saying we are with Kiev "as long as it takes," but never clarifies "takes for what?" Why not say we are with the Ukrainians until they win?
Deliver ATACMS now
Announce that the United States will immediately deliver ATACMS long-range missiles to Kiev, the key weapon that could enable Ukraine's counteroffensive to succeed.
Hats off to Biden for delivering large-scale U.S. military and economic aid to Ukraine, and for successfully prodding allies to do more (even as Donald Trump makes clear he would cut off arms to Kiev and ink a surrender deal with his pal Putin). However, the continuing White House refusal to sign off on ATACMS is inexplicable. The excuses are rubbish. Kiev has pledged not to use these missiles against targets inside Russia, and the U.S. has plenty of them available that it could quickly deliver. Just a few of the long-range missiles would enable Ukraine to hit far behind enemy lines, and cut off Russian access to Crimea.
Ironically, the White House has signed off on sending Ukraine controversial cluster munitions. Kiev, which is short of artillery shells, urgently needs these munitions for use on the battlefield, where their use does not violate international law. Russia, on the other hand, has been using cluster bombs indiscriminately against Ukrainian civilians, which is a war crime (I've seen some of the victims lying in a Mykolaiv hospital after Russians dropped cluster munitions near a bus stop.) Yet there is no hue and cry against their criminal use by Moscow.
However, the question remains: Why is Biden green lighting the cluster munitions but holding back the long range missiles that could reshape the war before the end of summer?
"ATACMS could be brought to bear in days and could make a difference within a week," said retired U.S. Air Force general and former NATO commander Philip Breedlove. So what on Earth is the White House waiting for?
Speed up delivery of F-16s
Announce that training of Ukrainians on F-16s by Denmark and the Netherlands will be expedited, and delivery of planes by Washington and European allies will be fast-tracked. Incredibly, U.S. officials have been doing the opposite, pushing back the training until fall (though the Danes and the Dutch are ready) and slowing delivery of planes until winter, after the counteroffensive. Since the F-16s are U.S.-made, the Europeans can't act without a U.S. green light.
Again, the delay is inexplicable. It forces Ukrainian forces to advance over endless, heavily mined fields without adequate air cover, meaning enormous casualties. "The U.S. military would not go to war without air power or long-range ammo," said Breedlove. So why is the White House forcing this disastrous strategy on Ukraine?
Warn Putin off blowing up a nuclear reactor
Lead NATO in a united, public warning to Putin against blowing up part of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is occupied by Russian forces. Make clear that NATO's (non nuclear) response would be as swift and harsh as if Putin had used a tactical nuclear weapon.
By now, Biden should realize that Putin's threats to use tactical nukes are bluster. World War III is not on the horizon. But the Russians have repeatedly hinted that they might explode mines they've planted around the Zaporizhzhia facility and blame any disaster on Kiev. This is the same tactic Putin used when, as all signs definitively conclude, Russia blew up the Nova Kakhovka dam — and blamed Ukraine. NATO allies failed to warn Putin off destroying the dam, which has caused a massive ecological disaster. They can't afford to make the same mistake with the Zaporizhzhia plant.
Lay out a path to NATO membership for Ukraine
Led by Biden, the summit should lay out a road map that leads to NATO membership for Ukraine after the fighting stops. Before Putin's second invasion, it might have been possible to imagine a status for Ukraine short of actual NATO membership. But now, it is only possible to stabilize Europe by making Putin understand he can't swallow his neighbors. Otherwise, he will retain his imperial dreams and threaten other Eastern European countries.
Surely, Biden understands a Russian "victory" would be a disaster for NATO. Putin doesn't need to occupy all of Ukraine to score a victory. He need only bomb Ukraine into an economic basket case and wait for the West to tire of backing Kiev — or for the return of Trump.
The Balts and Eastern Europeans, who have suffered under Soviet rule, understand this danger. They will try to convince Biden that the risk of bowing to Putin's threats is greater than taking a firm stand that will deter him.
As the former Lithuanian ambassador to Washington, Žygimantas Pavilionis, told me, by WhatsApp from Vilnius: "We hope Biden will open a clear path to Ukrainian membership, because if not, guys, we will be the next [victim] in the Baltics. Not to do so will also send a clear sign to Xi Jinping that he can do the same in the Indo-Pacific."
"Send a message to Moscow," the ambassador continued, directly addressing Biden. "Make clear that the invitation will be issued to Ukraine at the next NATO summit in Washington, D.C., in 2024. If you make that political decision, you will end the war on Ukraine. Putin is weak and will understand that the West has an endgame strategy."
"If you don't make that decision," Pavilionis said. "You are returning us to hell."
(COMMENT, BELOW)
Trudy Rubin
Philadelphia Inquirer
(TNS)
Previously:
• 04/21/23: The Pentagon documents leak will embolden Putin as he tries to outlast Ukraine
• 03/22/23: The Russian attack on a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone underlines why we must help Ukraine win
• 03/15/23: Will the White House have the courage to propel a Ukrainian victory this year?
• 02/21/23: On the first anniversary of Putin's invasion, Ukraine fights on for its independence and for the security of the West
• 02/17/23: A former Pakistani leader's death, and his wise peace plan that failed
• 02/09/23: Earthquakes killed nearly 12,000 people this week. Three men are partly to blame
• 01/24/23: As Russia murders civilians in Dnipro, why won't NATO send weapons that could end the war?
• 12/28/22: What Zelensky worried about when he addressed a cheering Congress
• 12/13/22: The US-China conflict to watch is the Chip War --- which centers on Taiwan
• 09/14/22: Ukraine scores sudden breakthrough that should energize Western support
• 09/09/22: Queen Elizabeth's death deprives Britain and the world of a rock of stability
• 09/08/22: After Gorbachev's death, Putin wants the world to know he is the 'anti-Gorbi'
• 08/26/22: 6 months after Russia's war vs. Ukraine began, the West still won't give Kiev the weapons to win
• 08/15/22: Ukraine's civilian volunteers work to give aid and rebuild, even as Russia continues to bomb them
• 08/08/22: A trip near the front lines finds Ukrainian troops ready for a battle that could decide the war
• 06/13/22: The critical battles for Ukraine and for America are being fought right here, right now
• 05/02/22: Save Odesa to save the world from hunger and high food prices
• 05/02/22: Bloodless Ukrainian War, not utopian fantasy says one-time largest foreign investor in Russia
• 04/11/22: The only way to end Putin's war crimes
• 03/28/22: Don't let Putin's nuclear and chemical threats stop us from giving Ukraine what it needs
• 03/24/22: An elegy for Mariupol, where I walked six weeks ago. Now razed by Russian bombs
• 03/18/22: Zelensky's brilliant speech should impel Biden and Congress to protect Ukrainian skies
• 03/11/22: Mariupol's bombed maternity hospital exemplifies why NATO should protect Ukraine's skies
• 03/10/22: No 'no-fly zone'? Then NATO must find another way to protect Ukraine's skies
• 03/07/22: The third World War has already started in Ukraine. Europe and the US should wake up
• 03/04/22:Putin must be stopped from turning Kiev into Aleppo
• 03/02/22:Why is Belarus helping Russia invade Ukraine? An explainer on the latest in the conflict
• 02/25/22: What the UN should finally do about Russia
• 02/24/22: Why Putin's Ukraine aggression will change the world --- an explainer on how we got here
• 02/10/22: Ukrainian civilians train for war with cardboard guns: 'We are scared but we are ready
• 01/13/22:Putin wants to reestablish the Russian empire. Can NATO stop him without war?
• 12/10/21: Can Biden and NATO prevent Putin from invading Ukraine? Summit puts it to the test
• 12/02/21: Boris Johnson stirs up new Irish Troubles for his own personal political gains
• 11/22/21: Xi Jinping thinks America is on the rocks. Is he correct?
• 08/18/21: President Biden, get our Afghan allies on evacuation planes
• 08/18/21:The horror of Afghan women abandoned by Biden's troop pullout
• 08/09/21:China is pushing a big COVID-19 lie that makes a new pandemic harder to prevent
• 05/27/21: Punish Belarus leader for Ryanair hijacking before air piracy becomes dictators' new tool
• 04/14/21: Can Beethoven temper the political tensions between US and China?
• 06/01/20: US must stand with Hong Kong against Beijing's efforts to crush its freedoms
• 05/20/20: COVID-19 offers a chance to halt Iran's hostage diplomacy
• 05/21/14: Newscycle spurs visit to country my family fled
• 04/21/14: Blind to Putin's strategy?
• 12/24/13: Obama's Syrian indifference has led to more death and destruction. Meet some real heroes
• 12/13/13: Where liberals have come to love the military
• 12/09/13: The China strategy
• 11/05/13: Return to Iraq is worth a close look
• 10/01/13: Obama's call to Iran: Who was really on the line?
• 09/11/13: How Obama got Syria so wrong
• 07/24/13: It's time for Obama to tell Putin 'nyet'
• 05/15/13: What Russia gave Kerry on Syria --- very little
Trudy Rubin is a columnist and editorial-board member for the Philadelphia Inquirer.