Ukraine-Russia peace talks can't work unless Kiev is invited to join NATO

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Discussion of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia has become popular as Kiev's battle to drive out Russian troops appears stuck in a stalemate — or worse. Many security analysts, including some sympathetic to Ukraine, now talk about the need for the beleaguered nation to concede territory to Moscow.

Much of that talk ignores the realities on the ground. Some are downright dangerous, especially the pro-Moscow proposals from Donald Trump and JD Vance that sound straight out of the Kremlin.

And most ignore the sensible peace plan put forward by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has the best handle on how to curb Russian President Vladimir Putin's aggression. (Even President Joe Biden hasn't paid it due attention.)

It's time to take a closer look at the use and misuse of the phrase peace talks when it comes to Ukraine — and to examine why Trump's plan would likely lead to more wars. First, one must determine on what basis peace talks could be held.

Putin has no interest in talks unless they are based on total capitulation. He demands Ukraine cede the 20% of its land that Russia now occupies, disarm, and agree never to join NATO. This would clearly be suicidal since he has broken every pact Russia has made with Ukraine. The Russian leader would use such a deal to give his army a breather and then restart the war.

Trump claims he could solve the Ukraine problem with his pal Putin in 24 hours. Bamboozled by the Russian leader (with whom he reportedly has had seven phone calls since leaving office), Trump views the Ukraine war as a simple quarrel over disputed territory. In reality, it is an existential battle for Ukraine's survival against a brutal invasion by a Kremlin czar who insists that Ukraine is a renegade region of the Russian empire.

Here at home, the MAGA czar is ready to slash all Ukraine aid if Zelensky won't kowtow to his Putin-esque version of peace talks. He appears oblivious to the security costs of handing Moscow a victory over Ukraine.

Russia is testing the will of Western democracies to stand up to a new axis of authoritarian states, including China, Iran, and North Korea. Moscow is carrying out terrorist attacks and assassinations in Western European countries while blatantly interfering in European elections and ours. The Kremlin is threatening freedom of the seas around Europe and in the Arctic, aiding Iran in developing nuclear weapons, and allying closely with Beijing in coordinated efforts to undermine the West and Israel.

Yet, Trump sees forcing Zelensky to negotiate with Putin as little more than ridding himself of a Ukrainian nuisance. In lying rants about Ukraine, he vastly over-inflates the dollar amount of U.S. aid while lying about European aid to Kiev — European Union nations spend far more than we do.

Putin is clearly hoping for a MAGA victory less than three weeks from now.

This brings us to Zelensky's version of peace talks. The Ukrainian president rightly insists that any talks must be based on international law and the United Nations charter, which specifies that all U.N. members "must refrain from using force or threatening to use force against the political independence or territorial integrity of any other state."

In other words, talks cannot be based on the demands of a dictator or the ego of a former U.S. president. Zelensky has been trying, with some success, to rally U.N. members to support his formulation, and thus put pressure on Putin to attend a peace summit. In this, he should be getting more U.S. and Western support.

Zelensky has also demanded the return of all occupied Ukrainian territories because he knows what Putin is doing to the people who live there. The Russians aim to wipe out any trace of Ukraine-ness, including language, school curriculum, and culture. Anyone who objects is taken to "the basement" — meaning Russian torture chambers.

"This is why we need to be strong, not to lose our country," Zelensky told me when I interviewed him in Kiev in July.

Unfortunately, Western nations have failed to deliver critical air defenses and ammunition they promised to Ukraine, even as the White House sends its most advanced air defense system to Israel. And Biden still refuses to green-light the use of long-range U.S. missiles that could destroy the Russian aerodromes from which glide bombs are launched to destroy Ukraine's power system and cities.

"If we had the permission for deep strikes, and enough weapons and ammunition, we could win this war," I was told by phone from Kiev by Yehor Cherniev, deputy chairman of Ukraine's parliamentary committee on national security.

I agree.

"But there is no will from the West to give us this and we feel our partners are pushing us to negotiations," Cherniev continued. "It's not our strategy, but it's our necessity in these circumstances."

Even if there were a negotiated armistice, Ukraine would never recognize the Russian occupation of Ukrainian land and would continue diplomatic efforts to get that territory back.

Cherniev made a second point that is the key to any negotiations: "The part of Ukraine we still control should become part of NATO." Otherwise, Putin would resume the fighting, which would be "worse because the Russians have learned some lessons." Moreover, without security guarantees, investors would shun Ukraine, blocking any economic revival, and Ukrainian refugees living abroad would not return.

When I asked Zelensky in July what "real victory" would be, he stressed "security for today and future generations and the impossibility of the repetition of aggression." He added, "The war must become significantly harder for Russia" before Putin would be forced to hold serious talks.

Yet, Biden did not support offering Ukraine an invitation to NATO at the Washington summit in July. Kamala Harris has strongly backed Kiev and, if elected, might have more guts.

Or perhaps Biden will realize he still has a brief window to leave a positive legacy by green lighting long-range Ukrainian strikes inside Russia — and convincing his NATO allies to issue that desperately needed invitation to Ukraine.

Otherwise, peace talks would be nothing but surrender to Putin, or a gust of useless Washington hot air.

(COMMENT, BELOW)

Trudy Rubin
Philadelphia Inquirer
(TNS)

Previously:

• 06/05/24: US, allies must stop playing 'Patriot games' with Ukraine

• 05/15/24: The biggest story last week was not Stormy Daniels or campus protests

• 11/20/23: Documentary sheds light on Putin's mass murder in Ukraine

• 11/16/23: Even Tlaib should know better

• 9/22/23: Russia's kidnapping of Ukrainian children under the spotlight at United Nations

• 9/22/23: Biden should resolve the blockage of visas for Iraqis and Afghans who helped our troops

• 9/11/23: Even on vacation, there's no escaping Putin's murderous intentions

• 08/18/23: With new weapons slow to arrive from NATO allies, Ukraine surprises Putin with sea drones

• 08/09/23: Lessons from a military funeral in Ukraine

• 07/28/23: As Russian missiles again rain down on Odesa, Putin sneers at the UN and NATO allies

• 07/24/23: Putin is playing a game of food blackmail. The West can't let him win

• 07/19/23: Can Ukraine win the war against Russia? I'm traveling there to find out

• 07/17/23: From hell to Harvard: One Ukrainian's escape and how you can help fulfill her dreams

• 07/11/23: At the NATO summit in Vilnius: Will Biden seize or squander the chance to end Putin's war on Ukraine?

• 04/21/23: The Pentagon documents leak will embolden Putin as he tries to outlast Ukraine

• 03/22/23: The Russian attack on a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone underlines why we must help Ukraine win

• 03/15/23: Will the White House have the courage to propel a Ukrainian victory this year?

• 02/21/23: On the first anniversary of Putin's invasion, Ukraine fights on for its independence and for the security of the West

• 02/17/23: A former Pakistani leader's death, and his wise peace plan that failed

• 02/09/23: Earthquakes killed nearly 12,000 people this week. Three men are partly to blame

• 01/24/23: As Russia murders civilians in Dnipro, why won't NATO send weapons that could end the war?

• 12/28/22: What Zelensky worried about when he addressed a cheering Congress

• 12/13/22: The US-China conflict to watch is the Chip War --- which centers on Taiwan

• 09/14/22: Ukraine scores sudden breakthrough that should energize Western support

• 09/09/22: Queen Elizabeth's death deprives Britain and the world of a rock of stability

• 09/08/22: After Gorbachev's death, Putin wants the world to know he is the 'anti-Gorbi'

• 08/26/22: 6 months after Russia's war vs. Ukraine began, the West still won't give Kiev the weapons to win

• 08/15/22: Ukraine's civilian volunteers work to give aid and rebuild, even as Russia continues to bomb them

• 08/08/22: A trip near the front lines finds Ukrainian troops ready for a battle that could decide the war

• 06/13/22: The critical battles for Ukraine and for America are being fought right here, right now

• 05/02/22: Save Odesa to save the world from hunger and high food prices

• 05/02/22: Bloodless Ukrainian War, not utopian fantasy says one-time largest foreign investor in Russia

• 04/11/22: The only way to end Putin's war crimes

• 03/28/22: Don't let Putin's nuclear and chemical threats stop us from giving Ukraine what it needs

• 03/24/22: An elegy for Mariupol, where I walked six weeks ago. Now razed by Russian bombs

• 03/18/22: Zelensky's brilliant speech should impel Biden and Congress to protect Ukrainian skies

• 03/11/22: Mariupol's bombed maternity hospital exemplifies why NATO should protect Ukraine's skies

• 03/10/22: No 'no-fly zone'? Then NATO must find another way to protect Ukraine's skies

• 03/07/22: The third World War has already started in Ukraine. Europe and the US should wake up

• 03/04/22:Putin must be stopped from turning Kiev into Aleppo

• 03/02/22:Why is Belarus helping Russia invade Ukraine? An explainer on the latest in the conflict

• 02/25/22: What the UN should finally do about Russia

• 02/24/22: Why Putin's Ukraine aggression will change the world --- an explainer on how we got here

• 02/10/22: Ukrainian civilians train for war with cardboard guns: 'We are scared but we are ready

• 01/13/22:Putin wants to reestablish the Russian empire. Can NATO stop him without war?

• 12/10/21: Can Biden and NATO prevent Putin from invading Ukraine? Summit puts it to the test

• 12/02/21: Boris Johnson stirs up new Irish Troubles for his own personal political gains

• 11/22/21: Xi Jinping thinks America is on the rocks. Is he correct?

• 08/18/21: President Biden, get our Afghan allies on evacuation planes

• 08/18/21:The horror of Afghan women abandoned by Biden's troop pullout

• 08/09/21:China is pushing a big COVID-19 lie that makes a new pandemic harder to prevent

• 05/27/21: Punish Belarus leader for Ryanair hijacking before air piracy becomes dictators' new tool

• 04/14/21: Can Beethoven temper the political tensions between US and China?

• 06/01/20: US must stand with Hong Kong against Beijing's efforts to crush its freedoms

• 05/20/20: COVID-19 offers a chance to halt Iran's hostage diplomacy

• 05/21/14: Newscycle spurs visit to country my family fled

• 04/21/14: Blind to Putin's strategy?

• 12/24/13: Obama's Syrian indifference has led to more death and destruction. Meet some real heroes

• 12/13/13: Where liberals have come to love the military

• 12/09/13: The China strategy

• 11/05/13: Return to Iraq is worth a close look

• 10/01/13: Obama's call to Iran: Who was really on the line?

• 09/11/13: How Obama got Syria so wrong

• 07/24/13: It's time for Obama to tell Putin 'nyet'

• 05/15/13: What Russia gave Kerry on Syria --- very little

Trudy Rubin is a columnist and editorial-board member for the Philadelphia Inquirer.