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Republicans in Mississippi, especially those running for Senate, aren’t supposed to face serious challenges. The Democrats’ last Senate win in Mississippi was in 1982 — before this columnist was born.
But the poor national environment for Republicans, fueled by President
Donald Trump
’s unpopularity and the GOP-controlled Congress going along with Trump’s tariffs and war in Iran (both of which have led to higher prices), have pushed incumbent Sen.
Cindy Hyde-Smith
into an unexpectedly tough race against Democrat
Scott Colom
, forcing the Republican to do something odd: Campaign.
It hasn’t gone great.
Hyde-Smith has raised a little over $6 million in her reelection bid, not insignificant, but far less than other Republican incumbents in tough races. Trump traveled to Mississippi on Monday night to stump for Hyde-Smith, and her brief speech made it clear she was relying on a president who won the state less than two years ago by 23 percentage points for help.
"Is this not the best president in our lifetime?" she exclaimed, before exiting stage left.
Hyde-Smith hasn’t exactly been using the media to her advantage, from calling security on a reporter in the Capitol to saying again in a recent interview that consumers can turn to proteins other than beef amid high prices, doubling down on a comment her opponent happily turned into a viral attack ad.
"Thank goodness when mothers want to feed their families when you go out shopping, there are proteins, you want to feed meat, there are some cheaper prices," she said.
Hyde-Smith certainly may still win. She is the favorite. It is Mississippi, after all.
But her campaign reflects a broader trend in this year’s midterms: Republicans who haven’t had to campaign in years are being forced to do so by the national environment - and, in some cases, surprisingly strong Democratic opponents. And conditions like this can lead to a few surprises.
"Incumbents who aren’t ready for their reelection are not only caught asleep at the wheel, but they are also the ones who are most easily viewed by voters as part of the problem," said
Jesse Ferguson
, a longtime Democratic operative. "In a change election, the incumbent who is unprepared is also the incumbent who owns all the baggage of the status quo."
Republican incumbent Sen.
Roger Marshall
in Kansas is another example of this trend. He won his first Senate term by double digits. Before that, Marshall won his 2018 House race - a good year for Democrats - by over 36 percentage points.
Marshall, however, is in the race of his life this year, facing Democrat
Adam Hamilton
in a Senate race that could be the cycle’s most fascinating contest.
Marshall has raised $6.9 million this cycle - again, not an insignificant amount of money - but a pittance compared with other Republican incumbents and far less than the $16.3 million Hamilton has raised. Marshall has also been challenged on the campaign trail. The first debate between the two candidates turned into a raucous affair, with audience anger boiling over at Marshall, and the Republican has been hit over his comments dismissing high gas prices and over a story about his referral of patients with medical debt to law enforcement.
Like Hyde-Smith, Marshall could still win and is probably the favorite. A Democrat hasn’t won a Kansas Senate race since 1932. (Definitely wasn’t born then!)
Even clearer examples appear in the House race. In Colorado, Republican Rep.
Lauren Boebert
moved districts ahead of the 2024 elections to run in a deeper red district. Yet this cycle, Democrat
Eileen Laubacher
is pushing her, seizing on her position as a Democratic bogeywoman by raising a staggering $13.7 million, compared with Boebert’s $1.2 million.
In southern Minnesota’s congressional district, which Trump won by double digits in 2024, Republican incumbent Rep.
Brad Finstad
is in a real race against Democrat
Jake Johnson
, with the Democrat outraising the Republican throughout the campaign and outside Democratic groups now pouring millions into the contest.
The same has previously happened on the other side of the aisle.
Some Democrats in Massachusetts weren’t used to serious competition in 2010. And yet a bumbling special election campaign by Democrat
Martha Coakley
against Republican
Scott Brown
- who can forget Coakley dismissing complaints about her campaign style with: "As opposed to standing outside Fenway Park? In the cold? Shaking hands?" - presaged a tough environment for Democrats in the midterms. Later that year, 18-term Democratic Rep.
Jim Oberstar
lost his Minnesota seat to a Tea Party-backed Republican in a district the Democrat had won by 35 percentage points two years earlier.
Struggling incumbents are always more vulnerable during wave years, and though the environment isn’t good for the GOP, redistricting makes a true wave less likely. As Ferguson notes, going into 2010, 48 Democrats represented seats that GOP Sen.
John McCain
won in 2008, compared with just three Republicans this year in districts Vice President
Kamala Harris
won in 2024.
"You can have a big wave from the electorate, but it crashes up on the dunes more quickly now," Ferguson said. "The wave can be just as big, but it is not going to result in the same sort of thing."
That means this year’s election results will answer an interesting question: Are economic conditions and Trump’s unpopularity so bad that incumbents who should have no chance of losing are kicked out of Congress? We’ll all find out together next week.
(COMMENT, BELOW)
Previously:
Dems, fatherhood and being a man
• Home heating oil is a sleeper campaign issue across cold-weather battlegrounds
• Home heating oil is a sleeper campaign issue across cold-weather battlegrounds
• With judgment nearing, candidates lean on bipartisan partnerships
• How Republicans' fortunes at the ballot box are linked to diesel fuel prices
• Dems are running against the One Big Beautiful Bill. What can they do if they win?
• Dems sound the money alarm in a key battleground
• Republican candidates are breaking with Trump on Iran as midterms looms
• Republicans have one clear advantage this November
• The midterms are over. Sort of
• Working-class Americans aren't running for office. It's changing our politics
• Why this popular Dem is running like he is behind
• The divide between Trump and Vance on Iran
• The bipartisan rise of Flock cameras as a political issue
• Are data centers enough to flip a key House race?
• Voters want fighters. But where is the limit?
• Is the midterm cake baked?
• Is the midterm cake baked?
• For the DNC, no money, more problems