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Troy Jackson grew emotional when I asked him about the rising cost of home heating oil because of the war in Iran. He remembered his father digging under their northern Maine trailer to thaw out pipes and his mother "being depressed that we were in the situation that we were in."
"I know what kerosene on your hands at 20 below feels like. It's not a f---ing nice feeling," Jackson told me in Biddeford. "People across the state know exactly what this means and how they can't afford it and what the unfairness is of a man that never had to worry about those things, starting a war that has blown our heating oil up 80% over last year."
As the weather grows cold in key battlegrounds nationwide, sky-high home heating oil prices could tilt a series of tight races. The average cost of home heating oil is well over $6 per gallon, up over 70 percent from this time last year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. While about 4.8 million households use heating oil to heat their homes in the winter, most are in the Northeast, home to two key Senate races this year in Maine and New Hampshire.
Republicans have also weighed in on the issue. But the politics are notably one-sided: First because voters blame President Donald Trump and Republicans for rising prices and the war with Iran, and second because the Trump administration has repeatedly pushed to end the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program, which helps low-income Americans pay for heating oil.
"For the sixth time, the Budget proposes to end this program and instead support low-income individuals through lower energy prices and an America First economic platform," reads the Trump administration's proposed budget for 2027.
"No one can or should live that way," said Jackson, Maine Democrats' Senate nominee, taking on incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins in one of the cycle's most hotly contested Senate races. "This is worse than ever. And I don't know how people are gonna do it. ... The federal government should not have gotten us in this position. And they certainly shouldn't have been cutting a lot of heat funding so that people like Elon Musk have more f---ing money."
(As an aside, The Midcoast Villager, a standout local paper along Maine's coast, has done some fantastic coverage of this issue, especially about how Mainers are bracing for a tough winter.)
Gasoline and diesel prices have received considerable attention in this election. And rightly so.
But in nearly every election I've covered, a sleeper corollary issue has directly affected a few key battlegrounds and could decide a few races because of its timeliness and potency. Home heating oil prices could be that issue for an electorate already angry about high prices.
"We are a fairly cold weather state, and winter is coming," said Marc Malon, a Democratic state representative in Maine who supports Jackson. "People are scared about how they are going to heat their homes this winter. It is a major issue."
Malon said he's started to hear about it more and more when he knocks on doors for his own reelection campaign this year.
"We are getting to the time of year where Mainers have to really have to start thinking hard not to turn their furnace on," he said, calling it a household "battle to see if you can" make it into November without using oil.
It's not just Maine, either.
Chris Pappas, a New Hampshire congressman and the state's Democratic Senate nominee, urged the Trump administration last week to raise funding for the program from $4 billion to $7 billion a year because of high gas prices.
"Granite Staters are seeing sticker shock when filling up their heating oil tanks because of Donald Trump's war in Iran. And unfortunately, just as it's starting to get cold again, the price of home heating oil is the latest in the long list of cost increases from gas to groceries to health care," Pappas told me.
Republicans are clearly aware this is an issue.
John Sununu, the Republican nominee in the New Hampshire contest for Senate, said last week he would likely support increasing the energy assistance program. Bobby Charles, the Republican gubernatorial nominee in Maine, "proposed using more than $200 million from the state's Rainy Day Fund to offset high fuel and heating oil prices." Paul LePage, the Republican nominee battling Democrat Matt Dunlap for a northern Maine congressional seat, has said he is concerned about the price of home heating oil.
And when I spoke to Collins earlier this month in Augusta, Maine, she recalled how she was "talking yesterday morning with [Energy Secretary] Chris Wright on the phone about getting more home heating oil." Last month, she urged the Trump administration to release more home heating oil.
The issue is particularly potent because of the timing of these oil price shocks. Many people who rely on oil furnaces for heat top off their tanks in off-peak seasons to avoid the highest prices. But prices have been high for months, denying people the chance to do that.
While this issue is most prominent in Maine and New Hampshire, Democratic operatives in Alaska and Montana said they began hearing anger about home heating oil prices a few months ago and that complaints have only grown as homes have had to pay for winter oil.
"The high cost of heating fuel isn't a talking point - this is a life or death issue in Alaska," said Mary Peltola, the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alaska. "Montana winters are long and cold, and families tell me they're paying more each month to heat their homes, keep the lights on, and buy diesel for their trucks and farm equipment," said Seth Bodnar, the independent Senate candidate in Montana.
On the campaign trail
There was considerable bewilderment when Rep. Ashley Hinson the Republican nominee for Senate in Iowa, broke with Trump on Iran in late September, considering she voted multiple times against a resolution to restrain the president's war powers.
"Iowans are being squeezed and shouldn't have to foot the bill at the pump or the checkout line for the war in Iran," she wrote on X. "The war needs to be brought to a successful and immediate end."
At the time, speculation suggested Hinson must have received a poll that raised significant red flags about support for the war. That is why it is noteworthy that in Hinson's latest FEC report, the Republican campaign was invoiced on the same day as her break with Trump, Sept. 21, for survey research by pollster Fabrizio, Lee & Associates.
I asked the Hinson campaign whether they would share that poll or explain if the survey was why the Republican Senate candidate broke with Trump on Iran. They did not respond.
(COMMENT, BELOW)
Previously:
• With judgment nearing, candidates lean on bipartisan partnerships
• How Republicans' fortunes at the ballot box are linked to diesel fuel prices
• Dems are running against the One Big Beautiful Bill. What can they do if they win?
• Dems sound the money alarm in a key battleground
• Republican candidates are breaking with Trump on Iran as midterms looms
• Republicans have one clear advantage this November
• The midterms are over. Sort of
• Working-class Americans aren't running for office. It's changing our politics
• Why this popular Dem is running like he is behind
• The divide between Trump and Vance on Iran
• The bipartisan rise of Flock cameras as a political issue
• Are data centers enough to flip a key House race?
• Voters want fighters. But where is the limit?
• Is the midterm cake baked?
• Is the midterm cake baked?
• For the DNC, no money, more problems