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House primaries are over.
And, for most Americans, so too is the general election.
Let me explain.
Most Americans don’t live in competitive House districts, so who will represent them in Congress next year was likely decided in the primary — making voting later this year mostly moot. And that problem is only getting worse.
According to Unite America, a nonpartisan election reform organization, just over 9 percent of eligible voters participated in dominant party primaries, and they effectively decided the representatives for 88 percent of all U.S. House seats.
Nick Troiano, the group’s founding executive director, said this dynamic "explains so much of the division and dysfunction today."
"A very small fraction of the American electorate is effectively electing most of our leaders in Congress," Troiano said. "No wonder Congress has an abysmal approval rating, because most Americans did not elect them and they are not representing the majority of voters in turn."
The group arrived at this number through a few simple steps: First, they looked at how many seats in Congress are actually competitive, according to political prognosticators. Second, they looked at dominant party primaries in noncompetitive races to see how many people vote in races with more than one candidate on the ballot.
The numbers are striking. According to the group, 383 of 435 contests are considered uncompetitive in the general election, and therefore are decided in the primary.
This problem has only worsened in recent years, with more seats being decided by the primaries each cycle. This year, that trend was further exacerbated by mid-decade redistricting that cut the number of competitive House seats on the ballot this November.
In 2020, 10 percent of eligible voters elected 83 percent of all U.S. House seats, according to the group’s data. The number shifted to 8 percent effectively electing 83 percent in 2022 and 7 percent effectively electing 87 percent in 2024.
Additionally, the fastest-growing segment of the American electorate — those voters who don’t identify as either Republican or Democrat — are not allowed to vote in primaries in 16 states, a reality that Troiano says automatically disenfranchises 17 million voters "from the vast majority of congressional races."
"This problem is structural. It is a function of a design of the system, not of participation in the system," Troiano said. "Before a single vote is cast in November, more members of Congress will have effectively been elected than at any time in past elections."
So how do advocates like Troiano and others hope to change this issue?
First is a push to allow any voter to vote in primaries, opening up party primaries for independent voters. Some states, like Delaware, one of the places with a closed primary, have moved closer to opening up.
The group is also pushing for more states to adopt a nonpartisan primary system where all candidates run in the same primary, and the top two or four vote-getters move on to the general election. This kind of system is in place in states like California and Alaska. Voters in Massachusetts will decide this November whether to adopt a top-two system.
"Most attention in politics is being paid right now to, well, which party is going to control Congress in November?" Troiano said. "And that overlooks the bigger story in politics, which is that 90 percent of November elections are already decided before a single vote is cast, and we should not accept that as normal in a country that considers itself a democracy."
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Previously:
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• Why this popular Dem is running like he is behind
• The divide between Trump and Vance on Iran
• The bipartisan rise of Flock cameras as a political issue
• Are data centers enough to flip a key House race?
• Voters want fighters. But where is the limit?
• Is the midterm cake baked?
• Is the midterm cake baked?
• For the DNC, no money, more problems