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Democrats have money problems all over the country.
But the challenge may be most acute - and unexpected - in Wisconsin, a perennial presidential battleground long home to tight elections.
Ben Wikler, a former chair of the Wisconsin Democratic Party, put it this way: Democrats in the state are being battered with a "Thanos glove of Republican money" - a reference to the supervillain and his all-powerful glove from the Marvel franchise.
"Campaigns are running fewer ads. They're splitting 30-second ads into 15-second chunks. They're having to choose between defining themselves and defining their opposition," said Wikler, detailing the difficult choices candidates must make. "At this point you're just deciding where you want to lose by less."
This is a problem for Democrats across the country despite an otherwise favorable political environment caused by President Donald Trump's unpopularity.
The Democratic Party has struggled with fundraising since the 2024 election, and Trump's courtship of some of the nation's wealthiest individuals, like Tesla head Elon Musk, has led to considerably more giving to Republican causes. In Wisconsin, billionaires Diane Hendricks and Richard and Elizabeth Uihlein have been the primary money behind GOP causes in the state for years.
One issue hampering Wisconsin Democrats is that the state isn't home to a topflight Senate race, which usually draws the attention of well-heeled out-of-state donors. The top of the ticket this cycle is a gubernatorial contest between Democrat David Crowley and Republican Tom Tiffany, but the state is also home to multiple
contested House races and a battle for control of the Republican-controlled legislature.
Recent polls show the race between Crowley and Tiffany is close. A Marquette Law School Poll of Wisconsin released yesterday had Crowley at 49 percent with likely voters and Tiffany at 46 percent, with 5 percent undecided. The same survey in August found Crowley at 49 percent and Tiffany at 44 percent.
In 2022, over $200 million was spent as Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wisconsin) ran for reelection against Democrat Mandela Barnes.
The disparity this year is stark. According to data provided by Democrats in the state, Republicans focused on the race for governor are on track to outpace Democratic spending in every Wisconsin media market and could end up spending three times as much as Democrats on digital. This data also shows that Republicans focused on the gubernatorial race are outspending Democrats by an estimated $2.8 million this week alone.
"This would be a Democratic sweep of FDR or LBJ propositions if the Republicans discovered their bank accounts were empty tomorrow," Wikler said.
According to AdImpact, a group that tracks spending on television and digital ads, Republicans are slated to spend nearly $78 million since the state's primary in August. The Democrats are on track to spend around $58 million. One of the largest disparities is the governor's race, where Republicans are primed to spend nearly $40 million in the general election, compared with Democrats' $24 million. Democrats have a small advantage in the highly competitive district in the state's southwest corner, which pits Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden against Democrat Rebecca Cooke. Cooke has been buoyed by $6 million in planned spending by House Majority PAC, the top outside group focused on taking back the House for Democrats.
The widespread flood of Republican spending is complicated by the expanding national map for Democrats. Because of the poor national environment for Republicans, Democrats now believe they are viable in states they never dreamed of even a few months ago.
I published a story this morning with my colleague Greg Schneider about how Democrats have newfound confidence in Mississippi's Senate race, with top Democratic officials and donors increasingly hopeful that Democrat Scott Colom, the 43-year old district attorney for several counties in northeast Mississippi, could pull off the inconceivable and defeat Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith.
To put this into context: The last time a Democrat won a Senate race in Mississippi, Colom hadn't been born yet. But Democratic leaders, including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (New York), are urging the party's donors to give to Colom, signaling support for a race that wasn't on Democrats' map earlier this year.
Could a donor eager to give in Mississippi also give to candidates in Wisconsin? Sure. But money is finite, even for the wealthy, so a donor who is giving to long-shot House and Senate races may not spend on candidates in Wisconsin.
Wikler said he is happy that candidates in other states are competitive, but he was unequivocal about what could happen if Democrats don't close their money disadvantage in Wisconsin.
"My nightmare scenario is one where Democrats assume everything's fine," said Wikler. "And Republicans keep adding to their money deluge; then, after the election, Democrats have picked up some seats in unexpected places, but have lost their once-in-a-generation shot at the Wisconsin trifecta from the governorship to the state legislative majorities."
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Previously:
• Republican candidates are breaking with Trump on Iran as midterms looms
• Republicans have one clear advantage this November
• The midterms are over. Sort of
• Working-class Americans aren't running for office. It's changing our politics
• Why this popular Dem is running like he is behind
• The divide between Trump and Vance on Iran
• The bipartisan rise of Flock cameras as a political issue
• Are data centers enough to flip a key House race?
• Voters want fighters. But where is the limit?
• Is the midterm cake baked?
• Is the midterm cake baked?
• For the DNC, no money, more problems