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Democrats seem to have the wind at their back. Polls show them ahead in many races and tied in some GOP strongholds. And the party's target list in its quest to take back the House has expanded in recent weeks.
But one hang-up remains as the election nears: money.
In some House districts - many of them big reaches for Democrats this cycle, but ones the party says are in play - the Republican candidate has entered the final weeks of the campaign with a cash advantage of well over $1 million.
For example, Democrats have grown more excited about
Blake Gendebien
a dairy farmer in Upstate New York, looking to flip the seat currently held by retiring Rep.
Elise Stefanik
. But Gendebien entered September with just over $469,000 in the bank, compared with just over $4.1 million for Republican candidate
Anthony Constantino
, who loaned his campaign a staggering $17 million. The same is true in coastal North Carolina, where Democrats have expressed hope that a major wave election could sweep Republican Rep.
Greg Murphy
out of office. But Murphy has $2.4 million in the bank, compared with just $81,000 from
Raymond Smith
, the Democrat challenging him. In Oklahoma, Democrats have suggested a big night could see Rep.
Stephanie Bice
pushed out of her seat around Oklahoma City. But Bice reported $1.6 million in the bank at the end of the third quarter, compared with just $83,000 for Democrat
Jena Nelson
. And in Southern New Jersey, Democrats are eager to oust Democrat-turned-Republican Rep.
Jeff Van Drew
, and some think they can. But Van Drew has a roughly $1 million cash advantage over
Zack Mullock
, with the Republican reporting $1.1 million to the Democrat's $117,000.
A few caveats: This trend doesn't hold for all reach races; in some contests the Democratic challenger has actually surpassed their Republican opponent. Take the House district that sweeps across Eastern Colorado - where Republican Rep.
Lauren Boebert
reported having just $235,000 cash in the bank compared with Democrat
Eileen Laubacher
's staggering $3.3 million.
Money isn't everything in politics. We've documented at The Washington Post and in this newsletter that the money Republicans have poured into ads nationwide has done little to move their poll numbers.
But in these final weeks of the campaign, Democrats' ability to win races in districts that a few months ago would have been labeled absurdly audacious will hinge on each candidate's ability to get their message out. And that takes money.
"Democrats drew a map they can't pay for," said
Mike Marinella
, spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee. "Every dollar they burn chasing fantasy seats is a dollar their vulnerable incumbents won't get, and they're going to find out the hard way."
Democrats have acknowledged this issue. In a memo earlier this month to "interested parties" - read: donors - the head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee raised the possibility of Democrats ceding winnable races, including in Florida, Nevada, South Carolina and New York, because of money.
"Given the Republican cash advantage, we now find ourselves in a situation where we could be leaving winnable races on the table without further investment from the DCCC," wrote
Julie Merz
, asking donors to pitch in $17 million between the release of the memo and today "to take advantage of the opportunities we have."
Merz told me in a statement last night that the committee has raised over $13 million of its $17 million goal and has "already invested in multiple of the districts highlighted in the note."
Democrats feel this money gap most acutely in the reddest districts on the map. Democratic House candidates in the most competitive races have maintained a cash advantage over Republicans throughout the cycle, and by the end of the third quarter this year, the committee said the average candidate on their "Red to Blue" list (of seats the committee hopes to flip) outraised their opponents by about $2 million over the three-month period.
"The political floor is falling out from under House Republicans, and the truth is not even their Lex Luthor level of money will save them from a resounding rejection from voters," said
Viet Shelton
, a spokesperson for the Democratic committee. "Turns out making everyone's life wildly unaffordable is a bad political strategy everywhere."
This dynamic is shaping up to be a real test of how much money can help Democrats take advantage of an abysmal national environment for Republicans - and how much money can shore up Republicans who, in any normal cycle, wouldn't be seen as vulnerable at all.
What I'm watching
Families are no longer off limits in American politics.
That is the takeaway from my report yesterday afternoon about the proliferation of attack ads referencing candidates' families. The most notable example is in Ohio, where Republican gubernatorial nominee
Vivek Ramaswamy
has spent $4 million on an attack ad against Democrat
Amy Acton
that features Acton's long-estranged mother calling her daughter "a liar."
The ad has drawn widespread bipartisan condemnation because Acton and her brother were removed from their mother's home after Acton's stepfather was indicted on a charge of raping her. Some Republicans, like Vice President JD Vance, have embraced it, however.
"Seriously?" former New Jersey governor
Chris Christie
told me in response to Vance's defense of the ad. "For the last decade, our party has been infected by a corrupted moral center. Vance's acceptance of this campaign ad only breathes life into the disease that we should be seeking to cure."
In Maine, Republicans have embarked on a campaign to cast Democratic Senate candidate
Troy Jackson
as "weird" because his longtime partner and mother of his two children,
Lana Pelletier
, is his second cousin. The Senate Leadership Fund, the top Republican super PAC focused on holding the Senate, is running a radio ad containing bleeped profanity where a country-style performer sings, "Troy Jackson is weird. If he'll [bleep] his own family, he'll [bleep] yours, too." Republican
Susan Collins
's campaign has distanced itself from the ad.
While some of the most audacious familial attacks have come from Republicans, who polls show are trailing in key races, Democrats have engaged in some of it, too.
In a recent debate, Jackson accused Collins and her husband,
Thomas A. Daffron
, of making money off the Iran war. "She could use her leverage to stop this war, but instead, they're making money," he said, and his campaign later cited the couple's oil and gas holdings. Collins called the attack "absolutely outrageous" and demanded an apology from Jackson, who did not provide one.
And in Iowa, Democratic Senate nominee
Josh Turek
accused Republican Sen.
Ashley Hinson
of contributing to a "corruption crisis" in Washington and called her husband a "shadow lobbyist," a claim fact-checkers have deemed misleading.
You can read my full report here - which includes a walk down memory lane on how both
John McCain
and
Barack Obama
stopped family attacks in their 2008 presidential race.
(COMMENT, BELOW)
Previously:
Dems, fatherhood and being a man
• Home heating oil is a sleeper campaign issue across cold-weather battlegrounds
• Home heating oil is a sleeper campaign issue across cold-weather battlegrounds
• With judgment nearing, candidates lean on bipartisan partnerships
• How Republicans' fortunes at the ballot box are linked to diesel fuel prices
• Dems are running against the One Big Beautiful Bill. What can they do if they win?
• Dems sound the money alarm in a key battleground
• Republican candidates are breaking with Trump on Iran as midterms looms
• Republicans have one clear advantage this November
• The midterms are over. Sort of
• Working-class Americans aren't running for office. It's changing our politics
• Why this popular Dem is running like he is behind
• The divide between Trump and Vance on Iran
• The bipartisan rise of Flock cameras as a political issue
• Are data centers enough to flip a key House race?
• Voters want fighters. But where is the limit?
• Is the midterm cake baked?
• Is the midterm cake baked?
• For the DNC, no money, more problems