Erdogan and Sisi end their feud 10 years too late

The Middle East's most pointless feud — and that is a very crowded field — is finally over. After a 10-year diplomatic freeze, Turkey and Egypt are finally exchanging ambassadors. Having led their countries through a decade of political repression and economic pain, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey and Egyptian leader General Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi are hoping the resumption of normal relations will yield dividends.

But these are unlikely to make up for the opportunity cost of the years the two men have wasted in mulish mutual antagonism. Over the same period, Erdogan and Sisi turned their countries into the proverbial sick men of the Middle East, each desperately in need of an economic crutch.

It may seem as though Erdogan is riding high off the NATO summit, where he parlayed Turkey's veto power to extract some concessions from Sweden and won praise — and possibly a fleet of F-16s — from President Joe Biden. Sisi, too, has enjoyed Biden's good graces, despite the Egyptian regime's appalling human-rights record. But both men face enormous economic problems at home, and the resumption of ties between their countries is a timely reminder of the chances they have missed.

Under other circumstances, and other leaders, Turkey and Egypt might have forged a formidable partnership: The former boasting of the region's most diverse and sophisticated economy, and the latter the largest market and labor pool. That, in any event, was the hope in 2012, when Erdogan agreed to furnish Egypt, then led by President Mohammed Morsi, a $1 billion loan — the first, it was hoped, of many. When they met in Ankara that fall, there was much talk of shared economic interests and the promise of an upgraded free-trade agreement. Zafer Caglayan, then Turkey's economy minister, pledged that bilateral trade would double to $10 billion in no time.

But within a few months, Sisi had ousted Morsi in a coup. Erdogan, whose AK Party shared the ideology of Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood, denounced the general as an "illegitimate tyrant." Sisi, who regarded the Brotherhood as an existential threat, resented Erdogan for giving sanctuary to the group's leaders and other opposition figures. Cairo declared the Turkish ambassador persona non grata and Ankara responded in kind.

Over the next decade, the two leaders found themselves at loggerheads in many of the region's conflicts. In 2017, Egypt joined Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain in cutting diplomatic ties with Qatar, Turkey's closest ally in the Gulf region. In early 2020, Erdogan sent Turkish troops to Libya in support of the government in Tripoli, which was threatened by a rebel general, Khalifa Haftar, backed by Egypt. Later that year, Egypt joined with Cyprus, Greece, Israel, Italy, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority to set up the EastMed Gas Forum, conspicuously excluding Turkey.

Trade between the two nations did grow throughout the last decade, but much more slowly than had been envisioned when Erdogan and Morsi had posed for the photo-op in Ankara. A spurt in Turkey's imports of Egyptian natural gas last year, after relations had begun to improve, helped push bilateral trade to $7.76 billion.

But whereas a Turkish-Egyptian partnership might have challenged the Gulf Arab petrostates as the dominant economic and political core of the Middle East and North Africa, both countries are now heavily in hock to the sheikdoms. Having hobbled Turkey's economy by pursuing eccentric monetary policies, Erdogan has had to drop his hauteur toward the Gulf states and instead seek succor from the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. He will be returning to these countries soon, with a large hat in his hand.

From Cairo, Sisi will be watching with envy, having already overdrawn his credit with the petrostates in a vain attempt to paper over the widening cracks of an economy where runaway inflation is wreaking havoc on households as the government struggles with a shortage of foreign currency. Egypt has been forced to seek credit lines from China and India, on less generous terms than it once got from the Gulf.

Turkey and Egypt are also bending over backward to attract investors from the Gulf states, rather from each other. Emirati companies just picked up some bargains in the sale of Egyptian state assets. Erdogan and Morsi had envisioned companies from their respective countries collaborating across the global south, but there have been few joint ventures of scale. Turkey's construction companies have for the most part missed out on building the new administrative capital Sisi is raising outside Cairo. Egypt's military-industrial complex has not benefited from the innovation of Turkey's defense manufacturers.

Other opportunities may yet arise as relations between the two countries continue to mend. There's obviously great potential for cooperation in the exploitation of hydrocarbons in the Eastern Mediterranean, especially if Sisi can help resolve grievances between Turkey and other littoral states. It is conceivable that Turkish companies might bid for the military-owned Egyptian firms Sisi has promised to sell.

But the promise that a strong Turkish-Egyptian partnership once held such now seems lost to the realm of could-have-beens. Ankara and Cairo could have balanced the clout of the petrostates in the Arab world; they could have drawn other regional actors — Iraq and Libya come immediately to mind — into an economic bloc; they could have helped each other become more competitive against the world powers in Africa; indeed, they could have been bigger players in the geopolitics of the global south.

Alas, it will be a long time, if ever, before the two countries make up for the 10 years lost to the bloody-mindedness of their leaders.

(COMMENT, BELOW)

Bobby Ghosh is an Indian-born American journalist and commentator. He is a columnist and member of the editorial board at Bloomberg Opinion, writing on foreign affairs, with a special focus on the Middle East and the wider Islamic world. Starting in 2016, Ghosh was editor-in-chief of the Hindustan Times and TIME Magazine's World Editor.

Previously:
• 06/26/23: Just slip a new Iran deal past Congress? Slow Joe, No!
• 06/07/23: US doesn't need Saudi Arabia to sign the Abraham Accords
• 06/01/23: Erdogan won't change, and neither should Biden
• 03/13/23: Turkey's Erdogan is poised for a third decade in power
• 03/13/23: Iran's regime is already a big loser at the World Cup
• 11/25/22: Iran's regime is already a big loser at the World Cup
• 10/07/22: What Biden should make of Erdogan's bluster
• 10/07/22: Iran's ruler faces a formidable new foe --- schoolgirls
• 08/15/22: Bolton plot should be a warning on Iran nuclear talks
• 07/06/22: Erdogan missed a big opportunity with NATO
• 06/13/22: Iran has overplayed its hand in nuclear talks
• 05/25/22: 'Slow Joe' is missing an opportunity to put pressure on Iran
• 05/12/22: Erdogan's outreach to neighbors has one problem: Erdogan
• 05/05/22: The U.S. risks paying a high price for a nuclear deal with Iran
• 04/21/22: Yemen truce is good news for the wider world
• 03/23/22: The world's deadliest war isn't in Ukraine, but in Ethiopia
• 03/11/22: The Dems just doesn't understand Iran's regime
• 03/11/22: In the nuclear face-off with Iran, Biden just blinked
• 01/20/22: So, Trump is responsible for Iran's aggressive behavior?
• 01/18/22: THE SECRET'S OUT: Iran's economic resilience is mostly a mirage
• 01/07/22: Biden must hold Ethiopia's Abiy accountable
• 12/29/21: Fraying Saudi-UAE ties put U.S. objectives at risk
• 11/30/21: Iran demonstrates it isn't serious about nuclear talks
• 11/03/21: To negotiate with the Taliban, bring women to the table
• 10/11/21: Iraq's leader is betting on a hung parliament to retain power
• 09/27/21: A coup fails in Sudan but its fragile democracy remains at risk
• 09/13/21: The Taliban caretakers will keep the neighbors up
• 08/30/21: Trusting the Taliban to fight Islamic State
• 08/23/21: What will the Taliban do with a $22 billion economy?
• 07/28/21: The first and now the last best hope of the Arab Spring is at risk
• 07/15/21: No joy for Iran over the Taliban romp next door
• 07/07/21: Why Macron and Erdogan are suddenly playing nice
• 06/17/21: Iran's election is all about Supreme Leader's toxic legacy
• 08/17/20: Macron's muscle-flexing will make Mediterranean tensions worse
• 08/06/20: Beirut explosions create a dilemma for the world
• 06/25/20: Egypt's el-Sissi suffers a stunning reversal of fortunes
• 05/05/20: The Saudis' defacto leader is stuck exactly where Trump wants him
• 04/20/20: Trump is right to block IMF aid for Iran
• 02/17/20: Algeria wants a role in Libya that it can't afford
• 02/06/20: Iraq's new prime minister may not last long
• 01/27/20: Libya deal is a gentleman's bargain between rogues
• 01/20/20: Europe's lack of resolve is revealing --- to Iran
• 01/14/20: Iran isn't facing a 'Chernobyl moment'