Erdogan won't change, and neither should Biden

President Joe Biden's administration should follow the logic of the first two certainties to reject the reasoning of the third. Rather than rush to conciliate Erdogan, it should dial up economic and diplomatic pressure until he is ready to reset U.S.-Turkish relations.

Nobody in Washington should hold their breath. The Turkish leader has made it clear he has no intention of changing any of his policies, domestic or foreign. In an interview with CNN, Erdogan said he would "absolutely" continue to lower interest rates, despite an abundance of evidence that this has inflicted grievous harm on the economy and turned away investors. He also spoke warmly of his "special" relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, repeated his long-standing refusal to enforce sanctions on Russia, and criticized the West for failing to take a "balanced approach" toward Moscow.

It is Erdogan's approach to foreign policy that has been conspicuously lacking in balance. While building that special relationship with Putin over several years, he has alienated Turkey from its North Atlantic Treaty Organization partners and endangered the alliance's defenses - most provocatively by purchasing Russian S-400 missile defense systems. He has also antagonized his country's major trading partners in Europe by threatening to unleash a flood of refugees across Turkey's western borders.

Throughout the current election campaign, he and other leaders of his Justice and Development Party have blamed the West, and especially at the U.S., for much of what ails Turkey today.

Optimists will point out that Erdogan has been known to execute sharp reversions in foreign policy: In the past couple of years, he has kissed and made up with Middle Eastern states he had previously estranged, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Israel. Perhaps he would do the same with the U.S. if the Biden administration were to, say, bring Turkey back into the F-35 manufacturing program (it was removed when Ankara bought the S-400), or withdraw American support for Kurdish allies that Erdogan regards as terrorists.

But Erdogan's Middle East turnarounds were not the result of placation by regional leaders: They were for the most part prompted by his desperation. Having run Turkey's economy into the ground, he needed the largesse of the Gulf Arabs. And without the indulgence of former U.S. president Donald Trump, he needed Israeli and Egyptian diplomatic assistance in resolving regional disputes.

The lesson from these U-turns for the Biden administration is that in dealing with a truculent Turkey, it pays to wait.

It is hard to know what combination of factors will force Erdogan to seek a reset with the West, but two elements are essential. One is that Turkey will need to reach a level of economic crisis from which even Erdogan's Arab friends can't extricate him. The other is that Russia's conduct in the war in Ukraine makes his special relationship with Putin a liability.

The Biden administration need do little about the first: Erdogan can be counted upon to push the Turkish economy deeper into the hole he has created, and the Arab petrostates will not long extend his rope. As President Abdel Fatah El-Sisi of Egypt could attest, the Saudis and Emiratis are no longer serving unlimited bailouts.

As for the second, the Biden administration and the Western alliance have been steadfast in backing Ukraine to repel the Russian invasion. The more reversals Putin suffers on the battlefield, the less special his friendship will feel to Erdogan.

In the meantime, Washington should maintain pressure on Ankara to stop allowing Moscow access to sanctioned goods. The threat of punitive measures is having some effect: Turkey has recently blocked the transit of some shipments.

(COMMENT, BELOW)

Bobby Ghosh is an Indian-born American journalist and commentator. He is a columnist and member of the editorial board at Bloomberg Opinion, writing on foreign affairs, with a special focus on the Middle East and the wider Islamic world. Starting in 2016, Ghosh was editor-in-chief of the Hindustan Times and TIME Magazine's World Editor.

Previously:
• 03/13/23: Turkey's Erdogan is poised for a third decade in power
• 03/13/23: Iran's regime is already a big loser at the World Cup
• 11/25/22: Iran's regime is already a big loser at the World Cup
• 10/07/22: What Biden should make of Erdogan's bluster
• 10/07/22: Iran's ruler faces a formidable new foe --- schoolgirls
• 08/15/22: Bolton plot should be a warning on Iran nuclear talks
• 07/06/22: Erdogan missed a big opportunity with NATO
• 06/13/22: Iran has overplayed its hand in nuclear talks
• 05/25/22: 'Slow Joe' is missing an opportunity to put pressure on Iran
• 05/12/22: Erdogan's outreach to neighbors has one problem: Erdogan
• 05/05/22: The U.S. risks paying a high price for a nuclear deal with Iran
• 04/21/22: Yemen truce is good news for the wider world
• 03/23/22: The world's deadliest war isn't in Ukraine, but in Ethiopia
• 03/11/22: The Dems just doesn't understand Iran's regime
• 03/11/22: In the nuclear face-off with Iran, Biden just blinked
• 01/20/22: So, Trump is responsible for Iran's aggressive behavior?
• 01/18/22: THE SECRET'S OUT: Iran's economic resilience is mostly a mirage
• 01/07/22: Biden must hold Ethiopia's Abiy accountable
• 12/29/21: Fraying Saudi-UAE ties put U.S. objectives at risk
• 11/30/21: Iran demonstrates it isn't serious about nuclear talks
• 11/03/21: To negotiate with the Taliban, bring women to the table
• 10/11/21: Iraq's leader is betting on a hung parliament to retain power
• 09/27/21: A coup fails in Sudan but its fragile democracy remains at risk
• 09/13/21: The Taliban caretakers will keep the neighbors up
• 08/30/21: Trusting the Taliban to fight Islamic State
• 08/23/21: What will the Taliban do with a $22 billion economy?
• 07/28/21: The first and now the last best hope of the Arab Spring is at risk
• 07/15/21: No joy for Iran over the Taliban romp next door
• 07/07/21: Why Macron and Erdogan are suddenly playing nice
• 06/17/21: Iran's election is all about Supreme Leader's toxic legacy
• 08/17/20: Macron's muscle-flexing will make Mediterranean tensions worse
• 08/06/20: Beirut explosions create a dilemma for the world
• 06/25/20: Egypt's el-Sissi suffers a stunning reversal of fortunes
• 05/05/20: The Saudis' defacto leader is stuck exactly where Trump wants him
• 04/20/20: Trump is right to block IMF aid for Iran
• 02/17/20: Algeria wants a role in Libya that it can't afford
• 02/06/20: Iraq's new prime minister may not last long
• 01/27/20: Libya deal is a gentleman's bargain between rogues
• 01/20/20: Europe's lack of resolve is revealing --- to Iran
• 01/14/20: Iran isn't facing a 'Chernobyl moment'