Turkey's Erdogan is poised for a third decade in power

He will take great hope from the concurrent parliamentary elections, in which the ruling coalition led by his AK Party has retained its majority. And in the top-of-the-card contest, his opponent didn't really land any serious blows.

Kemal Kilicdaroglu fell about 5% short of the majority required to prevent Erdogan from extending his rule into a third decade. The president missed the target by a fraction of a percentage point. In a runoff between the two leaders, the president will expect to get many of the votes that went to the third-ranked candidate, Sinan Ogan, whose ultra-nationalist platform hews much closer to that of the ruling coalition than to the mostly liberal opposition bloc.

Kilicdaroglu's best hope - and it is slim - is for Ogan's supporters to sit out the second round and for some of Erdogan's base to let complacency get the better of them. But if anything it is opposition supporters, disheartened by the outcome of Sunday's vote, who will stay home on May 28.

Markets are already swooning on the prospect of five more years of Erdogan and his unorthodox monetary policies. It also bodes ill for the U.S. and Europe, which have endured years of rhetorical assault from the Turkish leader, as well as his propensity to throw a spanner into the NATO consensus against Russia's President Vladimir Putin. A victorious Erdogan will feel vindicated in his economic and foreign policy positions, making him even less amenable to compromise.

If he pulls it off, this victory will be the most remarkable of Erdogan's long career, coming against the most serious challenges he has ever faced. Ahead of Sunday's vote, many polls showed him trailing Kilicdaroglu. Turks were thought to have tired of their leader after 20 years, not least because of the dire consequences of his economic mismanagement. The opposition had for the most part united behind a single candidate, consolidating the anti-incumbent vote. And there was widespread anger at the government's poor response to the twin earthquakes that devastated southeastern Turkey in February.

In the run-up to the elections, Erdogan showed unwonted signs of panic. He announced a slew of handouts to appease voters, attacked the opposition as soft on terrorism and accused the West of plotting against him. He also talked up his stature as a world leader, someone who has raised Turkey's international prestige.

Kilicdaroglu, who entered the contest with a charisma deficit, had hoped to make up for it by marshaling a rare display of opposition unity and promising a return to parliamentary democracy. (Erdogan engineered a switch to a presidential form of government through a 2017 referendum.) He was also counting for the economic malaise to undermine Erdogan's appeal.

But these factors were insufficient: Proportionally, Kilicdaroglu fell well short of the combined tally of opposition presidential candidates in 2018. The opposition ranks will face much soul-searching over this failure in the days ahead. When they parse the parliamentary votes, there will be angst over the gains that nationalist parties made, suggesting a rightward lurch for Turkish politics in general.

Erdogan, not known for introspection, will likely double down on his policies. This means low interest rates, despite high inflation. It also means Turkey will continue to drift away from the West. (Sweden shouldn't hold its breath about a speedy accession to NATO.)

Turks, as much of the world, should assume the brace position.

(COMMENT, BELOW)

Bobby Ghosh is an Indian-born American journalist and commentator. He is a columnist and member of the editorial board at Bloomberg Opinion, writing on foreign affairs, with a special focus on the Middle East and the wider Islamic world. Starting in 2016, Ghosh was editor-in-chief of the Hindustan Times and TIME Magazine's World Editor.

Previously:
• 03/13/23: Iran's regime is already a big loser at the World Cup
• 11/25/22: Iran's regime is already a big loser at the World Cup
• 10/07/22: What Biden should make of Erdogan's bluster
• 10/07/22: Iran's ruler faces a formidable new foe --- schoolgirls
• 08/15/22: Bolton plot should be a warning on Iran nuclear talks
• 07/06/22: Erdogan missed a big opportunity with NATO
• 06/13/22: Iran has overplayed its hand in nuclear talks
• 05/25/22: 'Slow Joe' is missing an opportunity to put pressure on Iran
• 05/12/22: Erdogan's outreach to neighbors has one problem: Erdogan
• 05/05/22: The U.S. risks paying a high price for a nuclear deal with Iran
• 04/21/22: Yemen truce is good news for the wider world
• 03/23/22: The world's deadliest war isn't in Ukraine, but in Ethiopia
• 03/11/22: The Dems just doesn't understand Iran's regime
• 03/11/22: In the nuclear face-off with Iran, Biden just blinked
• 01/20/22: So, Trump is responsible for Iran's aggressive behavior?
• 01/18/22: THE SECRET'S OUT: Iran's economic resilience is mostly a mirage
• 01/07/22: Biden must hold Ethiopia's Abiy accountable
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• 07/28/21: The first and now the last best hope of the Arab Spring is at risk
• 07/15/21: No joy for Iran over the Taliban romp next door
• 07/07/21: Why Macron and Erdogan are suddenly playing nice
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