When this column appears, I will have just arrived in Odesa, Ukraine.
I want to see how Ukrainian soldiers and civilians are faring on the ground, as the country wages its counteroffensive against the Russian invaders. I also want to learn how the disappointing NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, has affected Ukrainian morale, and whether new weapons pledged by NATO countries will arrive fast enough to make a difference.
What many Americans don't realize is that Ukraine has a second enemy beyond Vladimir Putin's Russia.
That enemy is time.
In his concluding speech in Vilnius, President Joe Biden seemed to imply he expected Russia's war on Ukraine to continue indefinitely. He compared the struggle to the Cold War struggle for freedom in Eastern Europe. "Putin still wrongly believes that he can outlast Ukraine," Biden said. "After all this time, Putin still doubts our [NATO allies'] staying power. He is making a bad bet."
But, as a visibly disappointed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky understood, Putin's bad bet could still pay off if alliance leaders don't realize how hard it will be for Ukraine to sustain a long war.
NATO's Eastern European members do grasp the urgency of achieving victory in the coming year (before the U.S. election season) and securing Ukraine against future attacks with admission to NATO. But for some inexplicable reason, the Biden team still appears to believe that time is on Ukraine's side.
That lack of U.S. comprehension was clear when Zelensky let loose an angry tweet in response to NATO members' decision not to provide Ukraine with a clear timeline for joining the alliance. He was responding to language that said Ukraine would get an invitation "when allies agree and conditions are met" while steadfastly refusing to define any of the conditions.
Zelensky called that language "absurd." The U.S. response was to leak to the media the administration's pique at the Ukrainian's "lack of gratitude." Yet I fully understand this undiplomatic explosion (later smoothed over).
While the White House was referring to aid in dollars, ammunition, and tanks, Zelensky was thinking of human beings. This extraordinary man knows that the longer the war lasts, the more Ukrainian soldiers and civilians will die, and the harder it will be for his country to rebuild. Ukraine can't continue to lose its best and brightest indefinitely.
And if the war drags, according to the likely interpretation of NATO's "conditions" for membership, Ukraine will never be able to enter the alliance, and thus will never be secure. That means Europe won't be secure, either.
True, Biden deserves kudos for large-scale U.S. military and economic aid to Ukraine and for rallying Western European allies to do likewise. But this is not wasting U.S. money on a corrupt government, nor is it charity.
Biden rightly recognizes that a Putin victory will mark the end of a post-World War II era in which it was inconceivable that a great European or Asian power could invade and destroy a neighbor. It would also mark the formal demise of the United Nations, whose charter is based on preventing such military aggression. The world would have reverted to the Hobbesian chaos that existed in the 1930s.
But where Biden is mistaken is to compare the Ukrainian situation to the Cold War. Putin's Russia is not Stalin's Soviet Union, nor is Putin capable of playing Stalin. Russia's war has not only deeply damaged its economic future, but is splintering its army.
Putin's military is cracking. His response to the mutiny by Wagner militia chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was astonishing, letting this warlord fly around Russia, retrieve millions of dollars from his home, and reportedly meet Putin in the Kremlin. Even if Prigozhin ultimately "falls" out a window, Putin's indecision displays his weakness.
And that is not all. One of Russia's most important and popular generals, Maj. Gen. Ivan Popov, commander of the 58th Army in Zaporizhzhia, which is the key front for the counteroffensive, was just fired for telling the top brass that top Defense Ministry officials were "betraying his troops" by not sending vital weapons and man power. This further signifies a command structure in disarray.
Now, when Putin's focus is on internal political survival, is not the moment for NATO weakness. If Biden wants to convince the Russian leader that he can't outlast Ukraine, NATO should announce it will be working on specific conditions for Ukrainian membership, to be announced at the next summit in Washington, D.C., in 2024. Ukraine understands it cannot join the alliance in wartime, but the path can be clearly paved, and the end of the war accelerated.
Equally key, now is the moment to rethink how weapons from allies are delivered to Ukraine, and which weapons. For Ukraine to succeed in the counteroffensive, it needs coordination and concentration of weapons deliveries in critical mass. It also needs speedy delivery of specific systems that are most vital to break through Russian minefields. That includes airpower, long-range missiles, and ammunition.
Instead, Western weapons are delivered piecemeal, drip by drip, which gives the Russians time to develop countermeasures.
Why the White House is still dallying in green-lighting delivery of F-16s by European nations is beyond comprehension. As is Biden's refusal to send ATACMS long-range missiles.
Either we want Ukraine to push the Russians back and then move toward NATO admission, or we don't. That is the question. Again, a war of attrition means failure.
So I am traveling to Kyiv, Odesa, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and other cities to write about how Ukrainians believe they can still win this war, and what we can do to help them. Help them in our own self-interest, to avoid giving a weak Putin a new lease on power and permitting him more time to destroy.
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(COMMENT, BELOW)
Trudy Rubin
Philadelphia Inquirer
(TNS)
Previously:
• 07/17/23: From hell to Harvard: One Ukrainian's escape and how you can help fulfill her dreams
• 07/11/23: At the NATO summit in Vilnius: Will Biden seize or squander the chance to end Putin's war on Ukraine?
• 04/21/23: The Pentagon documents leak will embolden Putin as he tries to outlast Ukraine
• 03/22/23: The Russian attack on a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone underlines why we must help Ukraine win
• 03/15/23: Will the White House have the courage to propel a Ukrainian victory this year?
• 02/21/23: On the first anniversary of Putin's invasion, Ukraine fights on for its independence and for the security of the West
• 02/17/23: A former Pakistani leader's death, and his wise peace plan that failed
• 02/09/23: Earthquakes killed nearly 12,000 people this week. Three men are partly to blame
• 01/24/23: As Russia murders civilians in Dnipro, why won't NATO send weapons that could end the war?
• 12/28/22: What Zelensky worried about when he addressed a cheering Congress
• 12/13/22: The US-China conflict to watch is the Chip War --- which centers on Taiwan
• 09/14/22: Ukraine scores sudden breakthrough that should energize Western support
• 09/09/22: Queen Elizabeth's death deprives Britain and the world of a rock of stability
• 09/08/22: After Gorbachev's death, Putin wants the world to know he is the 'anti-Gorbi'
• 08/26/22: 6 months after Russia's war vs. Ukraine began, the West still won't give Kiev the weapons to win
• 08/15/22: Ukraine's civilian volunteers work to give aid and rebuild, even as Russia continues to bomb them
• 08/08/22: A trip near the front lines finds Ukrainian troops ready for a battle that could decide the war
• 06/13/22: The critical battles for Ukraine and for America are being fought right here, right now
• 05/02/22: Save Odesa to save the world from hunger and high food prices
• 05/02/22: Bloodless Ukrainian War, not utopian fantasy says one-time largest foreign investor in Russia
• 04/11/22: The only way to end Putin's war crimes
• 03/28/22: Don't let Putin's nuclear and chemical threats stop us from giving Ukraine what it needs
• 03/24/22: An elegy for Mariupol, where I walked six weeks ago. Now razed by Russian bombs
• 03/18/22: Zelensky's brilliant speech should impel Biden and Congress to protect Ukrainian skies
• 03/11/22: Mariupol's bombed maternity hospital exemplifies why NATO should protect Ukraine's skies
• 03/10/22: No 'no-fly zone'? Then NATO must find another way to protect Ukraine's skies
• 03/07/22: The third World War has already started in Ukraine. Europe and the US should wake up
• 03/04/22:Putin must be stopped from turning Kiev into Aleppo
• 03/02/22:Why is Belarus helping Russia invade Ukraine? An explainer on the latest in the conflict
• 02/25/22: What the UN should finally do about Russia
• 02/24/22: Why Putin's Ukraine aggression will change the world --- an explainer on how we got here
• 02/10/22: Ukrainian civilians train for war with cardboard guns: 'We are scared but we are ready
• 01/13/22:Putin wants to reestablish the Russian empire. Can NATO stop him without war?
• 12/10/21: Can Biden and NATO prevent Putin from invading Ukraine? Summit puts it to the test
• 12/02/21: Boris Johnson stirs up new Irish Troubles for his own personal political gains
• 11/22/21: Xi Jinping thinks America is on the rocks. Is he correct?
• 08/18/21: President Biden, get our Afghan allies on evacuation planes
• 08/18/21:The horror of Afghan women abandoned by Biden's troop pullout
• 08/09/21:China is pushing a big COVID-19 lie that makes a new pandemic harder to prevent
• 05/27/21: Punish Belarus leader for Ryanair hijacking before air piracy becomes dictators' new tool
• 04/14/21: Can Beethoven temper the political tensions between US and China?
• 06/01/20: US must stand with Hong Kong against Beijing's efforts to crush its freedoms
• 05/20/20: COVID-19 offers a chance to halt Iran's hostage diplomacy
• 05/21/14: Newscycle spurs visit to country my family fled
• 04/21/14: Blind to Putin's strategy?
• 12/24/13: Obama's Syrian indifference has led to more death and destruction. Meet some real heroes
• 12/13/13: Where liberals have come to love the military
• 12/09/13: The China strategy
• 11/05/13: Return to Iraq is worth a close look
• 10/01/13: Obama's call to Iran: Who was really on the line?
• 09/11/13: How Obama got Syria so wrong
• 07/24/13: It's time for Obama to tell Putin 'nyet'
• 05/15/13: What Russia gave Kerry on Syria --- very little
Trudy Rubin is a columnist and editorial-board member for the Philadelphia Inquirer.