A soft ultimatum to the world

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Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is traveling to the Middle East this week in part to press Israel to moderate its war plans in Gaza and prepare for a transition to lower-intensity operations against top Hamas commanders. President Joe Biden's administration is increasingly impatient about the humanitarian situation in Gaza, a small coastal territory that has essentially become hell on earth.

The Israelis, meanwhile, are increasingly impatient about the situation in the north, near Israel's border with Lebanon. Ever since the war in Gaza began on Oct. 7, the Israeli military and Hezbollah, the Lebanese terrorist group that runs south Lebanon, have been firing at each other across the United Nations-demarcated border. Hezbollah drones and missiles, some of which are precision-guided, frequently target empty Israeli settlements and military posts. The Israelis quickly retaliate with airstrikes against Hezbollah weapons facilities, launch sites and Hezbollah cells preparing attacks. Approximately 94 Hezbollah fighters, as well as eight Israeli soldiers, have been killed in the bombardments, along with dozens of civilians. Tens of thousands of Israelis have evacuated the northern towns and kibbutzim near the Israel-Lebanon border.

Fortunately, the exchanges have been contained to the border region. But it doesn't take a geopolitical expert to understand that one errant rocket or airstrike with a high casualty rate could turn controlled escalation into chaos. Indeed, just as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is receiving pressure from some quarters to negotiate another truce with Hamas, Netanyahu is getting flak from Israelis in the north who want to return to their homes.

Earlier in the war, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant made the case that Hezbollah should be attacked preemptively to degrade the militia group's ability to conduct an Oct. 7-style attack in the north. That recommendation was ultimately rejected.

Yet as hostilities on the Israel-Lebanon border persist, Netanyahu may eventually have a change of heart. Gallant remains committed to his position, warning the United States, Lebanon, Iran and every state in between that "if the world doesn't get Hezbollah away from the border, Israel will do it."

An Israeli military spokesman was more ominous: "Hezbollah — a proxy of Iran — is dragging Lebanon into an unnecessary war that would have devastating consequences for the people of Lebanon." The statement amounts to a soft ultimatum to the world.

From Washington's standpoint, the ultimatum evokes mixed feelings. On the one hand, Hezbollah is the region's most formidable terrorist group, equipped with state-of-the-art missiles that can rain down fury on every major city in Israel. Yet on the other, a large-scale Israeli campaign against Hezbollah, even if it were warranted, is the last thing the U.S. wants right now. The Biden administration has invested significant diplomatic capital into containing the fighting to Gaza and preventing it from spreading to other faultlines in the Middle East. Austin, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, CIA Director William Burns, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs CQ Brown Jr. and President Joe Biden himself have all flown to the region in the hope of tamping down the flames of war. While all of these officials recognize that Israel has a responsibility to defend its citizens from terrorism, none of them wants to see Israel take rash actions that could cause more problems and suck the U.S. into a war it would (rightly) rather avoid.

We should be under no illusions: If Israel were to act preemptively against Hezbollah, and the Lebanese militia group were to retaliate by launching some of the more than 150,000 missiles in its arsenal, it's highly likely the U.S. would get more directly involved on Israel's behalf. The U.S. military posture in the Middle East is already in a high state of alert and larger than it has been in years. Two aircraft carriers remain stationed in the region's waters, both carrying numerous fighter and bomber aircraft onboard. There are too many U.S. warships in the Red Sea, Persian Gulf and Eastern Mediterranean to count, but all of them are equipped with the kinds of cruise missiles that would allow Washington to target Hezbollah positions at a relatively safe distance. The Biden administration has reportedly discussed possible military options against Hezbollah.

To date, all of those discussions are preliminary. This is what U.S. officials in the national security space do: They consider various contingencies and plan in the hopes that the worse-case scenario never occurs.

Averting the worse-case scenario, however, takes a lot of work, patience, persistence and frank talk. The U.S. has actually been frank with the Israelis at times, for instance by reprimanding them for striking the U.S.-supported Lebanese army more than 34 times since October. (Some of these strikes were likely by accident.)

But the possibility of the war in Gaza expanding to Lebanon is of such gravity and consequence that working to avoid it is — or at least should be — a top Biden administration priority. Given Hezbollah's extensive arsenal, its 100,000-person army and decades of experience fighting Israel, a full-blown conflagration could get bloody quickly. Israel isn't ignorant of the risks — there's a reason why around 80,000 Israeli civilians were evacuated from their homes when the Israeli-Lebanese border started to become an active combat zone.

Even so, emotionalism is running high in Israel. While completely understandable, it's also dangerous because emotion poisons prudent policymaking. The U.S. is continuing to press upon the parties to, if not de-escalate, then at least keep current hostilities confined to a limited area.

Ultimately, however, the spat between Israel and Hezbollah won't be resolved through military means but by a diplomatic agreement that solidifies an internationally enforced buffer zone along the border. That is easier said than done.

Previously:
• 12/14/23: Will taking out Hamas leader Yehya Sinwar shorten the war?
• 12/07/23: Is it REALLY all Iran's fault?
• 11/30/23 What will happen after the Israel-Hamas truce expires?
• 11/09/23 Pessimism is growing in Ukraine. Has the war with Russia reached a stalemate?
• 10/26/23 Biden's geopolitical equivalent of a high-wire act --- and success is by no means assured
• 10/12/23 How will the Israel-Hamas conflict affect US policy?
• 10/05/23 As the war in Ukraine grinds on, Europe will prove more crucial
• 09/18/23 The US and Vietnam should boost their relationship. China looms large
• 08/24/23 Zelensky's shiny, new toys and yet --- racking-up losses
• 08/17/23 The US is negotiating with Iran to release prisoners. Here's why that matters
• 08/03/23 What should the US do to normalize ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia?
• 06/09/23 Do we face nuclear confrontation? The erosion of agreements has heightened the risk
• 06/01/23 Why is the Defense Department immune from budget cuts?
• 05/18/23 Policy is at a crossroads in a deeply troubled Afghanistan
• 05/12/23 The US war on terror continues. We just don't talk about it
• 05/05/23 The US and world were naive about Sudan leaders' commitment to democracy
• 03/20/23 China gets the credit for improving Iran-Saudi Arabia ties --- but the US benefits
• 02/23/23 The first year of war in Ukraine has defied predictions
• 02/07/23 How does the US-China relationship continue after the spy balloon saga?
• 12/29/22 Why does the US defense budget continue to grow? America's approach needs rethinking
• 12/22/22 Ever so slowly, the nations are realigning
• 12/22/22 China is pushing a pacifist Japan into building up its military capabilities
• 12/09/22 Mideast country is putting US in a tough spot by threatening another Syria incursion
• 10/13/22 Don't underestimate the durability of autocracies
• 09/22/22 Is there still hope for a new Iran nuclear deal?

(COMMENT, BELOW)

Daniel DePetris
Chicago Tribune/(TNS)

Daniel R. DePetris is a fellow at Defense Priorities, a foreign policy think tank based in Washington, D.C., and a syndicated foreign affairs columnist for the Chicago Tribune.