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Jewish World Review June 17, 2003 / 17 Sivan, 5763
Michael Ledeen
The Iranian Revolution, 2003: Regime change in the air
Those odors are beginning to waft through the air of the
central squares of Iran's major cities, and have
stimulated the people to an increasingly open challenge
to the reigning mullahs. There have now been six
consecutive nights of demonstrations all over Iran, and
although Western reporters there are on a tight leash
the regime has banned all journalists and photographers
from the sites of demonstrations, so the "reports" are
almost always based on second-hand information
and although there do not seem to be any Western
reporters covering events outside Tehran itself, several
facts are dramatically clear.
First, the demonstrators are not just "students" (the
word itself is rather misleading in context, since many of
them are in their thirties or forties). Some estimates
reckon that up to 90 percent of the demonstrators are
non-students.
Second, the regime is flustered, and misjudged its
response. It reminds me of Gorbachev's ham-handed
response to demonstrations in Lithuania towards the end
of the Soviet era. He sent in just enough soldiers to
enrage the Lithuanians, but not enough to put an end to
the protests. The mullahs in Tehran did just the same,
unleashing the most unruly and undisciplined members of
the vigilante security forces, the Basiji. But the
demonstrators fought back effectively, which was an
enormous boost to the morale of the democratic forces.
As of Sunday night, the regime had sent in some of the
shock troops of the Revolutionary Guards, who were
more effective, but the situation may well have gotten
out of hand.
Third, the brutal assaults on the demonstrators (female
students were hurled out of dormitory windows, and
survivors were beaten savagely as they lay on the street)
provoked the police to intervene against the Basiji,
showing once again that the regime cannot count on its
own security personnel to put down the freedom
movement. This is one of the prime reasons for the smell
of fear coming out of the mullahs' mosques and palaces.
Fourth, and perhaps most important, the anti-regime
demonstrations are not limited to Tehran. On Sunday
night, for example, the biggest demonstrations to date
anywhere in the country reportedly took place in
Isfahan (where my informant said virtually the entire city
was mobilized against the regime), and other protests
were staged in Mashad, Shiraz (where three
distinguished scholars were thrown in jail last Thursday, following an extorted
"confession" from a 14-year old) and Ahvaz. This is doubly significant, both
because it shows the national character of the rebellion, and because Isfahan
has historically been the epicenter of revolutionary movements (and indeed
some of the harshest critics of the regime are in and from Isfahan).
Fifth, the leaders of the regime are acting with open incoherence. While
Supreme Leader Khamenei and Information Minister Yunesi accused the
United States of financing the uprising, strongman Rafsanjani publicly offered
assistance to America in fighting terrorism. He announced that Iran had
abundant information on various terrorist groups (now there's a real revelation
for you) and would be willing to share it with us in exchange for a friendlier
attitude. Put in simple terms, he's negotiating for his survival. Meanwhile, the
speaker of parliament, Mehdi Karrubi, demanded that Yunesi document the
regime's claim that Iranian officials had been paid off by the Americans, and
threatened to impeach the information minister if he didn't carry out an
exhaustive investigation. To be sure, Karrubi is a mere figurehead, but his
willingness to openly and melodramatically challenge the regime speaks
volumes about the determination of the opposition and the contempt held for
the leadership.
Sixth, there is mounting violence against the regime. We are no longer talking
about purely peaceful demonstrations. The protesters know they are going to
be attacked with guns, clubs, knives, machetes and chains, and they are
responding with Molotov cocktails and guns of their own. In some of the
recent street fighting, the demonstrators strung wires across the streets to
bring down the Basiji, who were on motorcycles.
The regime is in a real jam. The mullahs know the people hate them even
the timorous correspondent of the Christian Science Monitor in Tehran says
that 90 percent of Iranians want democratic change, and 70 percent want
drastic change and they also know that their own instruments of repression
are insufficient to deal with a massive insurrection. Many leaders of the armed
forces have openly said they will side with the people if there is open civil
conflict. Members of some of the most powerful institutions in the country
have said that they believe more than half of the Revolutionary Guards will
support the people in a frontal showdown. Ergo, the mullahs have had to
import foreign thugs described as "Afghan Arabs" in the popular press
to put down demonstrations.
On the other side of the barricades, the pro-democracy forces seem to have
passed the point of no return. They know that if they stop now, many of them
will be subjected to terrible tortures and summary execution. Kamenei and
Rafsanjani are not likely to embark on a domestic peace process. Just as they
have sensed the rot within the regime, the mullahs are desperately sniffing the
air for similar odors from the university areas and the homes and offices of the
other leaders of the insurrection.
As usual, President Bush has been letter perfect in his praise for the freedom
fighters and his condemnation of the repression in Iran. And the State
Department spoke in similar terms through its spokesman, Richard Boucher.
It would be good if Secretary Powell and his deputy, Richard Armitage,
threw their prestige openly behind democracy (and hence regime change) in
the next few days. There has been considerable criticism which I have
joined of the administration's lack of a formal Iran policy, but it seems that
the president himself has clearly formulated it. He should now ensure that the
whole choir is chanting from his hymnal.
Part of the reason for the failure to agree upon an explicit endorsement of
Iranian democracy is a lack of good information from inside Iran, and a
consequent lack of accurate analysis. At this point, there is nothing that can be
done about the failure of the intelligence community to obtain an accurate
picture of the forces in play within Iran. It is not to be blamed on the current
CIA, or on its personable leader, George Tenet. The truth is that the United
States has had rotten intelligence on Iran ever since the run-up to the 1979
revolution that removed the shah and brought the awful mullahs to power. But
even so, there is no excuse for the misunderstanding of revolutionary change
that dominates the thinking of the intelligence and diplomatic communities.
The spooks and dips believe that democratic revolution in Iran is unlikely
because the revolutionary forces have no charismatic leader no Walesa, no
Havel, no Robespierre, no Jefferson and without revolutionary leaders,
revolutions do not occur. Our deep thinkers fear that if we supported the
rebels, we would risk a replay of the abortive uprisings in Poland and
Hungary in the 1950s and 1960s.
But Iran today is not at all comparable to Central Europe half a century ago,
or for that matter to revolutionary France of America in the 18th century, or
Russia on the eve of the Bolshevik Revolution. In all those cases, the
revolutionaries were a distinct minority, and only a combination of dynamic
leadership and foreign support could bring down the regimes. In Iran today,
the revolutionaries constitute the overwhelming majority of the population,
while the tyrants only glean minimal support. Thus, the Iranian people hold
their destiny in their own hands. They share a common dream of freedom, and
need only transform it into a common mission to liberate themselves.
Finally, our analysts should be more modest when they pronounce on the lack
of revolutionary leaders in Iran today. The democracy movement has been
growing for years, and has clearly attracted mass support. That does not take
place without good leadership. The leaders are there, we just don't know their
names and faces. But if we stick to our own guiding principles, and support
the democratic revolution under way in the streets of Iran and if the
revolutionary momentum is as strong as it now appears we will get to
know them soon enough.
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