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Jewish World Review May 15, 2003 / 13 Iyar, 5763
Michael Ledeen
Iran's Path: Stopping the mullahs in their tracks
For the past five years many Iranians, and an embarrassingly large number of foreign diplomats and other
observers, convinced themselves that Iran could accomplish a peaceful transition to democracy by changing
the system from within. But no reforms have been accomplished, the clerical fascists who sit atop the Islamic
Republic still make all the key decisions (and control the country's considerable wealth, often to their
personal benefit), and the people no longer take reform seriously. In municipal elections in February, a mere
twelve percent of eligible voters showed up at the polls, in a massive expression of no confidence in the
reformists. On May 7, 153 deputies (out of 290) said the country was in a "critical situation," because the
people had concluded that their votes were meaningless. And in recent days, more than a dozen deputies
have resigned, only to be indicted by the Islamic tribunals for attempting to sabotage the system.
As the people's hatred of the regime becomes ever clearer, the leaders of the dreaded Revolutionary Guards
issued a series of warnings to the people and to members of parliament. Ayatollah Movahedi Kermani, the
Supreme Leader's representative to the Revolutionary Guards, snarled that "The (Guards) must control the
action of the (parliament). They must know if (the deputies) are with the leader or against him."
Faced with American forces and expanding freedoms in both Iraq and Afghanistan, the mullahs have decided
to go all-out to drive the United States out of Iraq, and convert that country into an Islamic Republic. To that
end, no less than four Arabic-language radio stations have been set up, hundreds of Iranian-trained mullahs
have been sent into Iraq's major mosques, and thousands of terrorists are operating under the command of
top Iranian officers, including Sartip Pasdar Jafari, the commander of the Revolutionary Guards ground
forces and its intelligence organization. Other top RG officers include Hamid Taqavi, from the intelligence
headquarters in Qom, and Sartip Pasdar Seifollahi, the commander of the Nasr headquarters in Tehran.
They have set up operational centers in Basra, Nassiriyah, Najaf, Khanaqin, al-Kut, and al-Amarah. They
are all using cover names, and are dressed as Arabs and Kurds. All are well armed with machine guns,
RPGs, and light weapons. They aim to turn Iraq into a "second Lebanon," hoping to repeat the rout of
American forces in the 1980s after a series of terrorist attacks, kidnappings, and mass demonstrations.
Two early operations give a sense of Iran's priorities in Iraq - the domination of the majority Shiite
community. The assassination of Imam Khoei at Najaf in the late stages of the war was a clear signal to Iraqi
religious leaders who preached the traditional Shiite doctrine that holy men should stay out of politics, and
mosque and state should be separate. Khoei was interviewed by Iranian radio an hour before he was killed,
in order to be sure the assassins knew where he was. And then thugs from Iran's Badr Corps - the armed
wing of the Supreme Islamic Revolutionary Council for Iraq whose leader, Ayatollah Hakim, just returned
from 20 years in Tehran - surrounded the house of Ayatollah Sistani in Najaf. Sistani is from the same mold
as Khoei.
Meanwhile, back in Iran, the repression continues. All draft deferments have been cancelled, in order to
bring more young men under military discipline. The judiciary has created a special group to crack down on
Internet use and shut down local sites. According to the student-news service, ISNA, special attention is
being paid to Internet sites that make fun of religious and political leaders, and already one blogger in Tehran
has been arrested. Reporters Without Frontiers has good reason to call Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei the
leading violator of press freedom in the world.
Many Iran watchers believe that it is only a matter of time before the Iranian people rise up against their
oppressors, and it could well begin on July 9, the date set by the student movement for a national strike
against the regime. For the first time, the students have appealed to the Iranian diaspora for help, especially
the very wealthy Iranian-American community in southern California.
One might think that all this would encourage the American government to find ways to support the
impending democratic revolution in Iran, and there are many modest steps that would produce great gains for
the anti-regime forces. There are several excellent radio and TV stations in California that broadcast directly
into Iran. Due to limited resources, they are only on the air for a few hours a day. The Bush administration
could accomplish a lot with a small investment in these broadcasters, who have many millions of Iranian
listeners and viewers, and whose words carry an authority and an intimacy that no official U.S. broadcaster
can hope to match. But so far, the administration has not done anything to support them.
Even without any active support, the administration could do a lot simply by vigorously enunciating our Iran
policy as the president - six times since September 11 - has done. Last week, in his South Carolina
speech, he remarked that "in the face of harsh repression, Iranians are courageously speaking out for
democracy and the rule of law and human rights. And the United States strongly supports their aspirations
for freedom." Yet a few weeks earlier, Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage proclaimed Iran "a
democracy," and the debate over the final wording of the long-delayed NSPD on Iran is still ongoing. It is
past time for the president to insist that Condoleezza Rice's National Security Council produce a clear Iran
policy that enables us to help the cause of freedom in Iran, and thereby strike a major blow against terrorism
(the State Department's annual report on state sponsors of terror once again put Iran at the top of the list).
To his great credit, Kansas Senator Sam Brownback (R.) is introducing legislation putting Congress on
record in support of the liberation of Iran.
In so doing, the administration should be careful not to take sides. There are many Iranian political groups,
ranging from constitutional monarchists to republicans. Some are religious, most are not (most Iranians have
had their fill of mullahs for at least a generation). We should have no dog in this fight; it is up to the Iranian
people to decide upon their form of government and their future leaders. But we most certainly have a
compelling interest in the democratization of Iran. Without it, our enterprise in Iraq will be constantly
threatened, and international terror including Iranian-guided Palestinian terror) will retain its most ferocious
and lethal supporter. With it, the Middle East will take a giant step toward freedom.
Finally, looming over the entire issue, is the Iranian crash program to acquire nuclear weapons. A couple of
months ago an Iranian team flew to China and traveled on the ground to North Korea, where the mullahs
offered Kim Jong-il billions of dollars for nuclear weapons and technology. Shortly thereafter, top leaders of
the Revolutionary Guards were informed by the National Security Council that Iran would "soon" have
nuclear weapons.
One of the two Middle Eastern pillars of the Axis of Evil has fallen; are we prepared to cope with the other?
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05/13/03: The Nuclear Axis of Evil: The people solution
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