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Jewish World Review Nov. 26, 2002 / 21 Kislev, 5763
Michael Ledeen
How Tyrannies Fall: Opportunity time in Iran
In some cities - notably Isfahan, traditionally the epicenter of political unrest in Persia - the regime's
thugs attacked the demonstrators, only to be driven out. Over the weekend, it was unclear just who was
in control in Isfahan, Tabriz, Shiraz and Mashad. By Sunday, the fanatical Basij - the volunteer thugs
who are responsible for "order" in the streets - were busily attacking and arresting anyone who did not
meet their standards, and the regime's top leaders were issuing warnings to the nation - and to us.
Sunday's demonstration in Tehran was held in front of the old American embassy, and the Revolutionary
Guards and Basij who gathered there were treated to fiery rhetoric from the RG leader, Safavi, and
former president (and one of the two most powerful men in the country) Rafsanjani. Both blamed the
United States for the unrest, and for those who think we can make a deal with these people to help us
fight Saddam Hussein, Safavi had a clear message: "An American presence in Iraq is totally unacceptable
to us." As I have been saying for many months now, the regime is preparing to attack us when/if we
finally liberate Iraq.
Rafsanjani declared war: "They (the Americans) are pushing us from all sides, but we will push back
somewhere else," no doubt referring to the recent wave of Islamic terror in Indonesia, Jordan, Israel, and
Kashmir, echoing his earlier warning that Iran would respond to the Axis of Evil speech "in the American
heartland," and perhaps prefiguring attacks against us in Afghanistan, where their creature Hekmatiar is
said to be preparing a terrorist spectacular of some sort.
But, for the first time in many years, there are clear signs of internal division, now between Rafsanjani and
the Islamic Republic's Supreme Leader, the Ayatollah Khamenei. Last Friday, a special committee of the
Basij openly decried widespread corruption within the government and the regime, and demanded that
Rafsanjani himself account for his vast personal wealth (a question that could probably be best answered
by the ruler of Dubai, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, for Dubai serves Iran's rulers as playground,
merchant bank, and transshipment terminal for smuggled Iraqi oil and a cornucopia of weapons headed
for Iran, Iraq, and the Palestinian Authority). It is close to certain that the Basij would never have made
such a demand without the supreme leader's approval. At the same time, the Basij stormed the education
ministry, under the pretext of searching for evidence that the minister was secretly supporting the student
demonstrations.
Rafsanjani and his allies are preparing still greater repression for the suffering people of Iran, due o be
launched on Wednesday, and already on Sunday members of the failed reformist movement were telling
the students to calm down, so as not to provide a pretext for the looming crackdown. But it is by no
means clear that the regime has the blind loyalty of the security forces any longer; during the recent
demonstrations there were several instances of defections to the demonstrators' side, and even the
Revolutionary Guards have been subjected to repeated purges, as the mullahs seek desperately to find
willing killers and torturers.
Which brings us back to the debate-that-is-not-happening. How can we tell when a regime is about to
fall? The key ingredient is not the sort of thing that the political scientists talk about in the academies,
because it can't be measured, only smelled: It is a combination of failure of nerve at the top, and resolute
desperation from below. On both counts, the trends are encouraging, but brutal repression is invariably
successful if it is delivered with overwhelming strength, and the would-be revolutionaries cannot
effectively cope with it.
We do not know how this will play out in the coming days and weeks, but one thing is already luminously
clear: The Bush administration has missed an opportunity to strike a massive blow against the terror
masters. If, instead of winking and nodding at various Iranian emissaries and back channels, we had
supported the Iranian people with money, effective radio and television, and modern communications
gear, the regime could very well have been smashed this past weekend. We may well have similar
opportunities in the future, even the near future, and it would be wise if the deep thinkers in Foggy
Bottom started pondering how to fulfill our revolutionary tradition rather than how best to appease Iran's
oppressors.
It would help, too, if some of our misnamed "major media" devoted some energy to this hugely important
but almost totally unreported story. Students have been on hunger strike in Isfahan for weeks, but not a
word about it has been published or spoken over here. The monster Friday demonstrations received only
token coverage, and most of that spoke as if the regime had put them down with little difficulty.
Meanwhile, the Washington Post, to its great credit, ran a fascinating front-page story on Sunday about
the dreadful implementation of Islamic law (sharia) in Nigeria. For those who read it carefully, there was a
telling statement from one of Nigeria's activist Islamists, who noted that the Iranian Revolution of 1979
was the great turning point in the spread of radical Islam in West Africa. "If they could do it in Iran, why
not here?" he said.
When the Islamic Republic finally comes down, and we get to read the files, I'll bet you a dollar to your
doughnut that Nigerian Muslims got - and today get - lots of help from Tehran. The mullahs have
extended their network deep into the biggest Islamic countries, from Nigeria to Indonesia. Sooner or later
our leaders, and maybe even our journalists and intellectuals, will figure this out. Let's hope it doesn't take
a whole series of September 11-type disasters before they get there.
Faster, confound it!
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11/22/02: The Blind Leading the Blind: The New York Times and the Iranian crisis
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