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Jewish World Review April 19, 2000 / 14 Nissan, 5760

Chris Matthews

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Nader's threat to Gore in California


http://www.jewishworldreview.com -- RALPH NADER, 66, has become a factor in the fight for California's 54 electoral votes.

A new presidential poll finds the Green Party standard-bearer pulling 9 percent of the vote in the West, with much of this vote expected to come from younger, more liberal, environmentally conscious voters. This spells Golden State trouble for Vice President Al Gore.

Pollster John Zogby says the surprisingly big showing for Nader threatens to shift California's bonanza of electoral votes to Texas governor George W. Bush, the Republican candidate. In a head-to-head test taken earlier, Gore beat Bush by only four points.

"Nader brings in new votes, but at the same time he really hurts Gore," Zogby said. "That could throw things topsy-turvy."

One key to Nader's heightened popularity may be the residual appetite for a reform candidate that John McCain managed to whet in his losing fight with Bush for the GOP nomination.

"It's not a mood of anger," Zogby said. "I believe there is a McCain vote out there, and it's wide open."

Democratic consultant Gale Kaufman, a senior adviser in Bill Bradley's California campaign, agrees.

"We've polled Ralph Nader repeatedly over the years, and his name always polls well with a certain segment of the electorate: younger, environmental, coastal, both Democrat and Republican. It's more of an age break than anything else."

Nader's appeal to reformist voters is showing up nationwide. The same Zogby poll finds the Green Party candidate polling almost 5.7 percent of the vote nationally, compared with just 3.6 percent for Pat Buchanan, the presumed Reform Party nominee.

The Zogby poll shows a majority of Americans want to see the famed consumer advocate included in the presidential TV debates next fall. Those forums are now limited to those candidates who draw 15 percent nationally, a threshold so far achieved by just Gore and Bush.

"People increasingly understand that a two-party debate will be a predictable exercise in issue avoidance," said Nader, who single-handedly created consumerism with his publication of "Unsafe at Any Speed" in 1965.

Nader argues that his campaign will close what he calls the "democracy gap" -- the wide divide between the country's adult population and active electorate. He says that people are tired of voting for the "least-worst" candidate, then finding even "worse" choices four years later.

For these turned-off voters, his campaign for the poor at a time of economic boom, his push for renewable fuels in an era of gas-guzzling, his case for a "widespread reform" crusade in the face of Big Party sleaze, even his notorious stoicism, might be just the ticket.

If so, expect his fellow environmentalist Al Gore to be the loser.



JWR contributor Chris Matthews is the author of Hardball. and hosts a CNBC show of the same name. Send your comments to him by clicking here.

Up

04/17/00: Berkeley politician visits with Elian's father
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04/11/00: Men who saved Elián from the sea
04/06/00: Caine should coach politicians
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03/20/00: Bush's California dream vs. reality
03/06/00: Scary Gore vs. hopeful Bush
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12/17/99: Catch 22: Leading candidates don't lead
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10/04/99: Buchanan, Churchill and Hitler
09/30/99: Who'll spin political gold in Golden State — Gore or Bradley?
09/27/99: Here's a millennial checklist for candidates
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08/25/99: The seemingly inexhaustible strength of America's free enterprise
08/23/99: GOP candidates are weak also-rans
08/16/99: Bubba on Bubba
08/11/99: Hillary's agonizing attempts to understand
08/09/99: With warm regards, Richard Nixon
08/04/99: Weicker: real third party is on the Left
08/02/99: Dubyah's last hangover
07/27/99: Ho, Ho, Ho Chi Minh; capitalism is gonna win

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