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Jewish World Review Feb. 14, 2000 / 8 Adar I, 5760
Chris Matthews
At this rate of acceleration, the gutsy Vietnam
vet-turned-U.S. senator might well enter his next big test
— California's March 7 primary — with a South Carolina
victory on Feb. 19 more spectacular than his triumph
Tuesday in New Hampshire.
The sparkplug of this political McCainia has been the
independent voter. The gung-ho enthusiasm of these
long-dormant citizens, including lively bands of
poster-waving college students, promises to be the big
American story of the millennial year. A democracy
deadened by foreign money scandals and what McCain
calls "truth-twisting politics" is suddenly showing
wondrous signs of life.
This much we know already: Voters unaffiliated with
either the Democratic or Republican party gave McCain
his huge 18-point victory in New Hampshire on Feb. 1.
John Zogby, the same pollster who called the New
Hampshire race right, now reports the surge of
independent support for McCain in South Carolina. Once
again, it is being led by a newly aroused independent
electorate.
The same 2000 phenomenon that has cooled the steam of the once-invincible
George W. Bush now stalks the old-style Democratic campaign of Al Gore.
Bill Bradley finished strong in New Hampshire, just 4 points behind the vice
president, by attacking Gore on both his inability to speak straight on his
changed abortion message and his inability to escape responsibility for the
shady Clinton-Gore fundraising of the last campaign. Bradley was in San
Francisco Thursday with the same provocative message, offering "a new
politics for a new century."
California's open primary ballot presents the twin insurgencies, McCain's and
Bradley's, with both an obstacle and an opportunity.
The obstacle for both the Republican and Democratic upstarts is that only
voters registered to their separate parties will have their preferences counted in
actual delegate selection.
The opportunity for both men is that California's new blanket ballot lets every
voter who shows up at the polls March 7 vote for anyone he or she wants. A
Californian registered as independent will be able to choose either of the two
mavericks. A Democrat will be able to choose McCain, a Republican Bradley.
A past Perot voter could go for either of these reform candidacies.
Since everyone will be using the same ballot, long-time party loyalists will be
able to jump party lines in complete anonymity. You will be able to cast a
frisky, even revolutionary vote without your spouse, partner, neighbor or
poll-watcher knowing.
This wild new voter freedom presents the possibility that McCain could win the
most California votes on March 7 but lose the winner-takes-all contest among
registered Republicans.
"If the steamroller heads West to California," said Mark DiCamillo of the Field
Poll, "you can imagine a scenario where McCain finishes first in the open
primary but he doesn't win the Republican primary."
Or he could win it all.
Or both he and Bradley could win it all!
As in New Hampshire, it may be hard to spot the McCain blitz or the quieter
Bradley attack coming until the votes are actually counted. Gale Kaufman,
senior advisor to the Bradley campaign in California, says many pro-Bradley
voters "don't even get polled because they're not high-propensity voters. They
are people who have never been involved in politics for awhile and are coming
back because of Bradley."
Rep. Anna Eshoo, D-Palo Alto, who backs Bradley, speaks with a hopeful
sentiment that resonates with McCain backers as well.
"He has a different song inside him," she said in an interview last week.
"I don't think there's anything wrong with leap-frogging ahead of your party.
There are times when the parties lead and a time when they
02/07/00: A prime-time primary for California
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