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Jewish World Review June 8, 2000 /5 Sivan, 5760

Morton Kondracke

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Consumer Reports


Has Gore Caught Bush?


http://www.jewishworldreview.com -- Whether or not Vice President Al Gore really has caught up with Texas Gov. George W. Bush (R) in national polls, he's doing OK where it counts - in the country's key battleground states.

According to The Hotline's electoral scoreboard, Gore is either slightly ahead of or behind Bush in Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Missouri and Pennsylvania, five of the six states where presidential elections are often decided.

Ohio is the lone large, contested state where Bush enjoys a lead outside the latest poll's margin of error - and even there, an early-May American Research Group survey gave Bush just a 6-point lead.

Meantime, the most recent set of national polls show that Gore has narrowed Bush's lead to practically nothing. The Zogby/Reuters poll last week showed Bush ahead 42 to 41 percent. In early May, Bush led by 5 points in the Zogby poll.

The bipartisan Hotline Bullseye poll by the Global Strategy Group and the Polling Co. in late May showed Bush leading 43 to 41 percent.

The Bush campaign declares these to be "outlying" polls and disputes that the race really has narrowed yet, although Bush aides expect it to do so sometime.

One Bush spokesman said the GOP candidate led by an average of 5.8 points in national surveys conducted in May, up from 5.5 points in April and 1.9 percent in post-primary polls in March.

The Bush campaign distributed charts showing that from late April to late May - a period during which Gore was constantly criticizing Bush while the governor was making "positive theme" speeches - Bush's net favorable ratings increased, according to a Washington Post/ABC News poll.

For sure, Gore's attack strategy garnered him heaps of criticism, mainly from Democrats. One Democratic Member, for instance, said, "People want their president to be a father figure, not an attack dog."

Even President Clinton let it be known through intermediaries that Gore would be better off letting surrogates, including Clinton himself, go after Bush instead of doing the dirty work alone.

In an elaborately advertised shift, Gore last week started making positive speeches and leaving negative commentary to others, including White House spokesman Joe Lockhart and Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.).

Gore barely mentioned Bush.



JWR contributor Morton Kondracke is executive editor of Roll Call, the newspaper of Capitol Hill. Send your comments to him by clicking here.

Up

05/26/00: PNTR Vote Could Tell Which Party Fits 'New Economy'
05/23/00: The secret to winning the election: Economic programs
05/18/00: Gore should regroup
05/16/00: McCain's Support Is Tepid, But Lets Bush Focus on Gore
05/11/00: Voters need wonk training
05/09/00: Bush Could Score With Charge That Gore's Too Partisan
04/28/00: Reno's force aids Clinton, not Elian
04/25/00: Should Clinton be indicted?
04/24/00: Can Gore win on Bush tax cuts?
04/18/00: Levin's 'bridge' key to China trade?
04/11/00: Congress, U.S. Voters Still Aren't Ready For Campaign Reform
04/06/00: Bush, Gore Silent As Popular Culture Gets Ever Coarser
03/30/00: Is 2000 Like 1948, 1976 or 1960? Or Is This Unparalleled?
03/28/00: Will Bush, Gore Go for a Better Way To Pick Nominees?
03/23/00: Medicare cutbacks bleed hospitals
03/20/00: Chances Improve That China Trade Will Pass Congress
03/16/00: Lieberman as veep would help Gore
03/14/00: Can Bush, McCain Unite to Beat Gore?
03/09/00: Can GOP Forge Unity After Nasty McCain-Bush Race?
03/07/00: What accounts for McCain's excesses?
03/02/00: 'Debate' Proved Gore Is This Year's Best Gut-Fighter
02/29/00: Surprises! The 2000 GOP race is full of it
02/25/00: Voters want centrist in White House
02/23/00: Gore would hit McCain's record
02/15/00: Will negativity hurt McCain in S.C.?
02/10/00: How hard should Bush hit McCain?
02/08/00: Bush must retool his entire campaign
01/27/00: Could Gore beat Bush as Truman beat Dewey?
01/20/00: Big New Surplus Estimates Could Alter 2000 Politics
12/21/99: Bush improves, everyone panders
12/16/99: Prospects improve for campaign reform
12/14/99: Riots raise free trade as 2000 issue
12/10/99: Gore won GOP 'debate' in N.H.
12/07/99: Election pits Bush cuts vs. Medicare boost
12/03/99: Can race be a constructive issue in 2000?
11/19/99: White House race may be best in decades
11/16/99: Where is Bush on health care fight?
11/11/99: Will TV stop profiteering from politics?
11/09/99: Is GOP isolationist, or just partisan?
11/04/99: Gore, Bradley Run Opposite Races On Style, Substance
11/01/99: GOP, Clinton could reach deal swiftly
10/27/99: Bush to fight 'culture wars' -- positively
10/21/99: Porter, Mack: heroes on medical research
10/19/99: Gore scores among party big shots, but polls go South
10/14/99: Bush critiques could help GOP Congress
10/12/99: Congress can save health care from ruin
10/07/99: Will gun-control cause the GOP to shoot itself in the foot?
10/05/99: Gore moves: Desperate but necessary
10/01/99: Fox, Armstrong make case for NIH
09/28/99: Dems' race brightens Bush's chances
09/23/99: East Timor deflates `Clinton Doctrine'
09/21/99: Buchanan v. Bush? Yeah right
09/17/99: Candidates turn attention to poverty
09/15/99: Bush's education problem
09/09/99: Budget makes 2000 an `issues' election
09/07/99:Airport rage increases, with good reason
09/02/99: U.S. future up for grabs in 2000
08/31/99: U.S. Capitol needs visitor's center -- soon
08/24/99: Will 2000 be the year of the foreign crisis?
08/19/99: Neither party has upper hand for '99
08/17/99: Ford gets freedom medal one month early
08/12/99: There's time to catch Bush, say Gore aides
08/10/99: Rudy, Hillary try much-needed makeovers
08/09/99: GOP must launch new probe of Chinagate
08/02/99: Pols blow fiscal smoke on budget surplus
08/02/99: One campaign reform should pass: disclosure
07/27/99: Gore leads Bush in policy proposals

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