Don't Make Ukraine Another Vietnam

Fifty years ago on April 30, Saigon fell to the North Vietnamese, and the defeat was America's, too.

South Vietnam was our ally, whose forces we trained, armed and supported with our own troops, ultimately at the cost of more than 58,000 of our service members' lives.

The grim anniversary is a reminder that those we support to the utmost can lose, as President Donald Trump works to prevent Kiev from suffering a fate like Saigon's.

Vladimir Putin's army occupies less than a fifth of Ukraine's territory, yet three years after he began his full-scale invasion, Putin shows no willingness to end the war, despite the price his soldiers pay in their own blood every day.

Volodymyr Zelensky may well believe that an American-negotiated peace promises as little safety for his country as America's negotiations with North Vietnam promised for Saigon.

He certainly knows that's a possibility, and the Ukrainian leader has so far been unwilling to risk any concession that might lead to complete defeat:

If Zelensky concedes Crimea, why wouldn't Putin press for the Donbas as well — and more of Ukraine next time, when he's rested and ready to send his war machine rolling again?

If peace doesn't include a military security guarantee, either a path to NATO membership or something else that would set a power greater than Russia's in the way of any further aggression, what will prevent it from turning out like the Paris Peace Accords that were supposed to have ended the Vietnam War in 1973, but in truth ended South Vietnam's chances for survival?

Trump and his administration, meanwhile, take a dim view of Kiev's prospects if there isn't an agreement soon — what America has given Ukraine has kept the country in the fight, but our arms and aid haven't turned the tide of the war.

While Americans mourn the fall of Saigon, few wish we had stayed in the Vietnam War longer or believe doing so would have produced a different outcome.

Ukraine doesn't have the benefit of American troops fighting alongside its own, as South Vietnam did — if Kiev is expected to win, it can only draw upon our dollars and our weapons.

Impressive as those funds and material means may be, they aren't enough to ensure victory.

This is why Trump is determined to try something beyond what's already been tried, and for now that means putting intense pressure on Zelensky and Putin to negotiate.

As large as Vietnam looms in the American experience, there is a precedent closer to home for Kiev and Moscow alike for how a war like this might end.

In 2008, Russia invaded another neighbor, the nation of Georgia, and set up puppet regimes — Abkhazia and South Ossetia — in Georgian territory.

Georgia, like Ukraine, lost control over about 20% of its land, and Russia maintains military bases in the occupied regions to this day.

Also like Ukraine, Georgia aspired to join NATO, as well as the European Union, and the Georgians have not given up that goal, though Russia's violence has kept it at bay.

Just as Zelensky has refused to legitimize Russian possession of Crimea, Georgia does not recognize the Russian-occupied territories as anything other than Georgian.

Yet Georgia, a much smaller country than Ukraine — with fewer than 4 million people, compared to Ukraine's nearly 40 million — quickly abandoned the idea of trying to fight Russia on the battlefield, and for the past 17 years, a parlous ceasefire has held.

Faced with impossible military odds, the Georgian strategy has been to stick to principle regarding its territory and intention to seek NATO membership, but to wait as long as necessary to see those principles vindicated in practice.

Ukraine is not only a much larger country than Georgia, but a very different one, and Russia's brutal war upon the Ukrainians has been much larger and quite different from the one waged against the Georgians, too.

But the Trump administration can learn something from the Georgian experience.

If even a nation as small as Georgia would not concede any of its territory to Russia, Ukraine can hardly be expected to, no matter how remote prospects of reclaiming control over Crimea might be.

Georgia's example doesn't provide any clues for resolving Ukraine's need for a security guarantee — such a thing is most likely to be met, in present circumstances, by some commitment on Western Europe's part separate from NATO.

But in devising a practical peace, not every question of principle needs to be answered.

Georgia survives by having its answers but deferring their fulfillment.

That's hardly the happiest of endings, and it's a reprieve, not a relief, in the face of danger.

Yet a reprieve is more than Saigon ever had, and any path that doesn't lead to horrors like those of a half-century ago is one the president must try.

(COMMENT, BELOW)

Previously:
• 04/15/25: Is UnitedHealthcare CEO's murderer the Left's Donald Trump?
• 04/01/25: Lawfare Isn't Beaten -- In France or America
• 03/25/25: Will Trump Turn Nationalism Against America?
• 03/18/25: The Dems' Civil War
• 03/11/25: Can Donald Trump Win a Trade War?
• 03/04/25: Europe's Decline Was a Choice
• 02/25/25: How Trump Makes Europe Stronger
• 02/20/25: Tax-payers funding a sham of democracy
• 02/11/25: What Kind of a Populist Is Elon Musk?
• 02/03/25: Can Trump Win Trade Wars Before They Start?
• 01/21/25: Trump Inaugurates a New Era
• 01/14/25: Dems Aren't Democracy's Party
• 01/07/25: Donald Trump's Worldwide Election
• 12/31/24: Harmless self-deception?
• 12/17/24: Communism thriving, including HERE
• 12/10/24: Birthright Citizenship Is a Breach in the Border
• 12/03/24: Identity Politics, Not Biden, Cost Dems the Election
• 11/19/24: Why Dems Are Losing Tomorrow's Elections Today
• 11/12/24: Dems Are at a Dead End, Unless They Learn From Trump
• 10/29/24: Harris Targets Married Women
• 10/22/24: Vibes Turn Bad for Kamala Harris
• 10/15/24: Why Veterans Are Voting for Trump
• 10/08/24: How Donald Trump Can Win the Popular Vote
• 10/01/24: Iran Targets America's Elections -- and Trump
• 09/24/24: Trump's Would-Be Assassin's Explanation
• 09/17/24: When Character Assassination Becomes the Real Thing
• 09/10/24: Kamala Harris Runs Like a Republican -- and Misleads
• 09/04/24: Where Trump Is Moderate -- While Kam Is Maximalist
• 08/27/24: Donald Trump Is Reagan's Heir
• 08/20/24: Will Voters Settle for Joe Biden's Wing(wo)man?
• 08/13/24: Trump Has to Run Like It's 2016 Again
• 08/07/24: Is Trump Running Against Harris -- or Donald Trump?
• 07/30/24: Kamala Harris' 'Mean Girls' Election
• 07/23/24: Kamala Harris Is the Opponent Donald Trump Wants
• 07/16/24: Ready for Biden's Counterattack?
• 07/09/24: Biden Faces Richard Nixon's Choice
• 07/02/24: Should Biden Drop Out -- or Resign?
• 06/18/24: Separate Sexual Identity and State
• 06/18/24: Nigel Farage Makes the Trump Moment Permanent
• 06/04/24: State that's long eluded GOP turns toward Trump
• 05/21/24: Trump's Sun Belt Hopes and Rust Belt Needs
• 05/14/24: What Trump Sees in Doug Burgum
• 05/07/24: The Vietnam Era Never Ended for Biden's Party
• 05/06/24: Nationalists of the World, Unite?
• 04/25/24: Foreign Policy Splits
• 04/16/24: How pro-lifers stand to lose everything gained in overturning Roe
• 04/02/24: PBS Misremembers William F. Buckley Jr.
• 04/02/24: Who Wants to Be House Speaker?
• 03/26/24: Trump Hunts for a VP Close to Home
• 03/19/24: Princess Kate and Democracy's Discontents
• 03/12/24: Can Biden Buy the Voters?
• 03/05/24: Veepstakes Give Trump an Edge
• 02/20/24: Do Americans Trust Either Party?
• 02/13/24: Vladimir Putin -- A Passive Aggressor
• 01/23/24: Will 'Lawfare' Take Trump Off the Ballot?
• 01/16/24: Will Africa Save America?
• 01/09/24:'The Sopranos' at 25: A new world tragedy
• 01/02/24: Trump, Biden and a Fight for the Heart
• 12/12/23: What Happened to Ron DeSantis?
• 12/12/23: Biden Looks Doomed -- But Is He?
• 12/05/23: A Test for Trump and His Rivals
• 11/21/23: When Inequality Is Fatal for Men
• 11/14/23: Nevermind, The Battle's Over
• 11/07/23: War in the Dem Party -- and at the Opera
• 10/24/23: Israel's Lesson for 2024: A Lib Crackup
• 10/17/23: Libs' Dilemma: Immigration or Israel?
• 10/10/23: Why Bidenflation Defines Bidenomics
• 10/03/23: Will Gavin Newsom Copy Trump?
• 09/26/23: Biden's a Loser -- but Dems Can't Ditch Him
• 09/19/23: Do Sex Scandals Matter?
• 09/12/23: Cornel West Spells Doom for Biden
• 09/05/23: What Trump Does for Democracy
• 08/2/23: Ramaswamy: A Trump Versus Trump?
• 08/22/23: Take 'Rich Men North of Richmond' Seriously
• 08/16/23: How America Kills Its Own
• 08/08/23: The Biden Pardon That Can Spare America
• 08/01/23: Harding, a consevative for the ages
• 07/25/23: Demography Destiny, for Us and China
• 07/18/23: The Frontrunner Who Looks Like a Loser Is Biden
• 07/11/23: Britain's Bad Example for American Conservatives
• 07/05/23: Could We Still Win a Revolutionary War?
• 06/27/23: Civilizations Clash -- in Ukraine and at Home
• 06/20/23: China Comes for the Caribbean
• 06/13/23: Fertility, Family and Bio-Socialism
• 06/06/23: From American Dream to Orwell's Nightmare
• 05/23/23: Ukraine war is an existential struggle --- for the West
• 05/23/23: Learn the Right Midterm Lessons -- or Lose in 2024
• 05/16/23: Feinstein Today Is Biden Tomorrow
• 05/09/23: Trump, DeSantis and Political Courtship
• 05/02/23: RFK Jr.'s Threat to Biden
• 04/25/23: Biden's Lost Generation
• 04/25/23: Who's In Charge of Clarence Thomas?
• 04/11/23: Beyond AI, Our Cyborg Future
• 04/04/23: 2024: 3 Leaders, 1 Way to Win
• 03/28/23: Climate Science Makes a Bad Religion
• 03/21/23: All the Conspiracy That's Fit to Print