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With just over six weeks until Iowa voters cast the first official 2024 votes, the Republican race has come into focus: former President Donald Trump maintaining his big lead, and Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley battling for second.
That means the Iowa caucuses will likely produce two meaningful winners: the first-place finisher, where anything but a decisive Trump victory would be a big upset; and the runner-up.
Trump needs to win by a comfortable margin to maintain the momentum that has made him the odds-on GOP favorite. But a second-place finish will likely position one of his rivals to challenge Trump in future tests, even if it's a distant second.
That's because history tells us two things about the Iowa caucuses.
First, the caucuses won't necessarily decide anything. The last three Republican Iowa caucus winners — former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz — all lost the GOP nomination.
Second, with President Joe Biden so far facing only token Democratic opposition, the media will focus on the GOP race. And they will likely portray the results as showing a two-person GOP race between Trump and the second-place Republican as the race moves to the New Hampshire primary eight days later.
That's why Haley's rise into second place in recent Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina polls is so important. While the former South Carolina governor trails Trump substantially in national surveys, the samplings in those three states are a lot closer, a result of her strong performances in the Trump-less GOP debates.
A second-place finish for Haley in Iowa would likely create momentum for a two-person Trump-Haley race in New Hampshire and South Carolina, less than would a DeSantis second-place finish. That's because Haley already has the stronger campaign in New Hampshire, a state that loves outsiders, and in South Carolina. Her New Hampshire success may hinge on whether most of the large number of unaffiliated voters flock to the Republican primary, since the Democrats won't recognize the winner of their Biden-less contest.
If they do, the beneficiary would likely be either Haley or former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, the most outspoken anti-Trump candidate. In recent weeks, Haley's campaign has substantially increased its financial investment there, while DeSantis put his entire early emphasis on Iowa.
The decision by fellow South Carolinian Tim Scott to drop out of the GOP race will probably prove a substantial benefit to Haley in her home state — especially if she gets a boost from Iowa and New Hampshire.
Trump's commanding lead in Iowa is reminiscent of the way former Vice President Walter Mondale dominated the multi-candidate 1984 Democratic caucuses there, ultimately winning 50% of the vote with a 3-to-1 lead over the second-place finisher, Colorado Sen. Gary Hart.
But the main beneficiary was not the overwhelming winner, Mondale, but the runner-up Hart, thanks to the media consensus that it was now a two-candidate race.
Hart already had a substantial campaign under way in New Hampshire, co-managed by a little-known state senator named Jeanne Shaheen, now the state's senior U.S. senator. By the weekend between Iowa and New Hampshire, the primary had become a heated two-man contest; on the following Tuesday, Hart was the upset winner.
His triumph gave the Colorado senator momentum. But it dissipated as the campaign headed south and Hart's inadequate advance planning left him unable to counter the more heavily financed Mondale campaign.
Somewhat similarly, Texas Gov. George W. Bush scored a substantial victory in the 2000 Iowa Republican caucuses over his principal challengers there, publisher Steve Forbes and conservative activist Alan Keyes.
But he was upset the following week in New Hampshire by Arizona Sen. John McCain, who had wisely bypassed Iowa to stress the Granite State's first-in-the-nation primary.
Like Hart in the 1984 Democratic race, McCain faltered as the campaign went south, where the Texas governor had a stronger base of support.
A strong showing by one of Trump's rivals in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina — states with big clout but few delegates — could easily produce a two-person race by the multiple big state contests on Super Tuesday, March 5. That could test the belief of some analysts that, despite Trump's big lead, his true base support is under 50%, presumably making him more vulnerable in a two-way race than in the current multi-candidate scramble.
On the other hand, some recent polling shows Trump would get a substantial share of his rivals' support if they were forced from the race.
As for the race for second place in Iowa, DeSantis should have the same advantage of emerging as Trump's main rival there that Haley has in New Hampshire. But unlike her, his next step is problematic.
He has the support of the state's governor, Kim Reynolds, a popular figure among Republicans, and Bob Vander Plaats, one of the state's most prominent evangelical leaders. He claims an organization in each of the state's 99 counties. As a result, failure to do well might doom the Florida governor's candidacy, which started with substantial promise but has gone steadily downhill, in part due to his refusal to separate himself from Trump.
Meanwhile, with her strong debate showings, Haley has set herself up to become Trump's main rival. But it depends on what the Republican voters say, starting Jan. 15 in Iowa.
Carl P. LeubsdorfThe Dallas Morning News (TNS)
Carl P. Leubsdorf is the former Washington bureau chief of the Dallas Morning News.
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