The curious case of Ron DeSantis

Early assessments of presidential candidacies are dangerous — and often wrong.

"Ike is running like a dry creek," the Scripps-Howard newspapers concluded in the summer of 1952, less than three months before World War II hero Dwight Eisenhower captured the presidency with more than 55% of the vote.

More recently, then Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain were both tabbed as losers because of slow starts in the year before they won the 2008 Democratic and Republican presidential nominations.

On the other hand, some highly touted candidates flopped, like Mayor Rudy Giuliani in 2008 and Govs. Scott Walker and Jeb Bush in 2016.

That brings us to the curious case of Ron DeSantis. Long touted as a top 2024 GOP prospect, some pundits are already counting the Florida governor out before he formally enters the presidential race, possibly later this month.

"DeSantis loses momentum before his campaign has even started," was a recent headline on NBC News' daily "Meet the Press First Read" political column. "DeSantis, on defense, shows signs of slipping in polls," was the header of a New York Times analysis.

Early polls, always quirky and often questionable, show Donald Trump's margin over DeSantis among Republicans has increased at a time when the former president's principal headlines billboarded his New York indictment for allegedly paying "hush money" to a porn star.

Reelected last November by more than 1.5 million votes, the Florida governor is learning what many other politicians have discovered over the years: Running for president is a lot harder than running for statewide office, even in so large and diverse a state as Florida.

When he recently stumbled by characterizing Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a "territorial dispute," DeSantis attracted several days of headlines — and sharp criticism form Trump and other top Republicans.

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At the same time, the Florida governor has seemed more eager to fight with Mickey Mouse and Bud Light than Donald Trump.

But as he tries to translate his Florida popularity into national success, DeSantis needs to realize they're not his main problems.

His problems are that neither political defeat nor legal indictment has so far shaken Trump's hold on the GOP electorate and DeSantis has yet to develop a strategy to loosen that hold.

Like other hopefuls, he has been reluctant to attack Trump directly, though he made several pointed personal comments about the former president.

Instead, DeSantis has adopted the questionable strategy of attacking Trump from the right, taking even more extreme positions on cultural issues like abortion and joining the current Republican effort to curb people identifying as transgender.

"Florida is where woke goes to die," DeSantis declared in his second inaugural address last January, touting a series of measures designed to protect Florida's kids from conversing about racial and sexual issues.

He has continued to push such measures in the current Florida legislative session, seeking to extend last year's ban on classroom discussion of racial and sexual issues from the first three grades to grade 12 and signing a new Florida law restricting abortions to the first six weeks of pregnancy.

At the same time, he escalated his fight with the Walt Disney Company over the outspoken opposition by some Disney executives to his legislative proposals. But his renewal of efforts to curb the state's largest private employer's local taxing power prompted Disney to sue DeSantis for a "targeted campaign of political retaliation."

He took on another major corporation, Anheuser-Busch, after it sent a transgender social-media influencer, Dylan Mulvaney, some custom-designed cans of beer with Mulvaney's face on them.

"I'd rather be governed by we the people than woke companies, and so I think pushback is in order across the board, including with Bud Light," the New York Post quoted DeSantis as saying.

In addition, DeSantis, who gained a reputation in Florida as not the most personable of politicians, is paying a price for failing to cultivate friendships with fellow Republicans.

That has been especially noteworthy in his inability to attract support from fellow Florida Republicans. So far, 11 of its 19 GOP House members have endorsed Trump, with just one, Rep. Laurel Lee, for DeSantis.

One Trump backer, Rep. Greg Steube, said, when he recently was injured from falling off a ladder, Trump phoned the ICU to check on him. "To this day, I have not heard from Gov. DeSantis," Steube told Politico.

DeSantis' recent Washington meeting to woo Republican House members failed to net him any additional endorsements. But Texas Rep. Lance Gooden walked out of the room and endorsed Trump.

The next day, one of Florida's most senior lawmakers, Rep. Vern Buchanan, also endorsed Trump and was invited for dinner at his Mar-a-Lago home.

Still, DeSantis remains the only Republican aspirant besides Trump with a national following. Despite current campaigning, the race won't really be joined until the first televised debate in August in Milwaukee.

By then, Trump could face additional charges stemming from his efforts to overturn his 2020 defeat.

Meanwhile, polls show Trump's support is less solid in Iowa and New Hampshire than nationally, a pattern that some years ago foretold the subsequent early caucus and primary problems of another front-runner, Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Unfortunately for DeSantis, retail politicking is crucial in Iowa and New Hampshire. But he has yet to show he enjoys or excels in that, complicating the effort to overcome his current deficit.

Carl P. Leubsdorf
The Dallas Morning News (TNS)

Carl P. Leubsdorf is the former Washington bureau chief of the Dallas Morning News.

Previously:
• 04/25/23 History offers Biden sobering lessons as he launches his bid for a second term
• 03/30/23 Biden's moves to the center
• 03/16/23 Biden's moves to the center
• 03/09/23 Pence looks for an opening in the anti-Trump lane
• 02/28/23 Why Biden is unlikely to replace Harris
• 02/16/23 A year after invasion, what's next for Ukraine?
• 02/16/23 A year after invasion, what's next for Ukraine?
• 02/02/23 2024 might not be your granddad's presidential race
• 12/22/22 New Hampshire unlikely to go quietly
• 12/08/22 A study in contrasts of where the 2 parties are going
• 09/25/22 Will Biden run again? Should he?
• 09/25/22 Kev McCarthy, invested bipartisan backer, will suddenly be flying solo
• 09/22/22 2024 election could be shaped by these races
• 08/26/22 Moderates' success continues in Dem races
• 05/29/22 Is this the end of Bush family dynasty?
• 04/27/22 Reality catches up with Biden
• 03/03/22 Kamala missed her chance
• 03/03/22 Did Biden really make his case?
• 02/25/22 A very different Europe faces this Russian aggression
• 02/10/22 Western 'support' also makes Ukraine nervous
• 12/09/21 Dole had respect for his rivals
• 08/18/21 Afghanistan's rapid fall casts cloud over Biden's entire administration
• 07/06/20 Things get complicated quickly for Biden
• 06/17/20: Government gridlock also on the ballot in 2020
• 04/24/20: Congress unprepared if disaster hits it
• 11/18/19: Buttigieg gains steam in Iowa. Why he's still a bad bet
• 03/01/18: How one keystone state congressional race could topple Nancy Pelosi
• 08/31/15: Ineffective Jeb Bush now faces NH challenge from Kasich
• 03/24/14: 7 obstacles Ted Cruz must overcome
• 12/15/14: Hillary sizes up her challenge in 2016