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The polls might be failing to fully capture Trump supporters who are ready to vote. But that would run counter to the past two years of Democrats' success in special elections across the country - some in deep Republican territory.
Democrats are hardly a popular brand right now, and Republicans are hoping they can use liberal candidates such as Michigan's Abdul El-Sayed to cast the entire party as too extreme.
The GOP is also hoping that although voters may dislike the direction of the country under Republicans, they still like their individual member of Congress. That could keep Republicans' losses to a minimum.
"Right now, I don't see the blue wave coming," said Sarah Chamberlain, president of the Republican Main Street Partnership, which supports Republican lawmakers in competitive districts. "Our men and women of Main Street are making their elections very specific to their states and their districts, talking about the needs of their constituents."
Democrats are closing in on retaking the House majority from Republicans.
Democrats need a net gain of only three seats in the November midterm elections to win the majority. They have a chance in about two dozen. Republicans, meanwhile, are mostly trying to defend their seats.
"Absent a pretty massive polling error, it is very hard to imagine it isn't a done deal for Democrats at this point," said Molly Murphy, a former polling adviser to Democrats' House campaign arm.
Why things are going so well for Dems
House races are usually closely tied to national politics, and all signs point to a terrible environment for Republicans right now.
Donald Trump is among the least popular presidents in recent decades, according to job approval polling, and as prices keep rising, a growing number of Americans say the economy is their top issue and have disapproved of how he's handling it. Seventy-eight percent of voters blame the Trump administration for the rising costs, a recent Reuters poll finds. For the first time in a decade, Gallup polling finds Americans trust Democrats over Republicans "to keep the country prosperous."
The groups of voters that helped Trump win back the White House - larger-than-usual chunks of women, Latinos and young voters - all disapprove of the job he's doing. Republicans' big legislative accomplishment under Trump, a tax-and-spending package, isn't that popular or well understood.
Even if Republicans were on more solid ground with voters, in recent years it has been Democrats who turn out at higher rates in these non-presidential elections.
Redistricting will help Republicans a little bit
Republicans are pretty much guaranteed a couple of extra seats because of gerrymandering, calculated Lou Jacobson, chief author of the Almanac of American Politics 2026.
Last year, Trump pushed Republican lawmakers in Texas and other states to redraw congressional lines, explicitly saying it was to help Republicans keep control of the House. (It had been rare but not illegal for state lawmakers to draw congressional districts in the middle of a decade.)
Democrats pushed back with their own aggressive gerrymanders, but several court decisions on this went in the Republicans' favor.
Still, Republican redrawing of some House districts could backfire. In Texas, Republicans took some voters from safe red seats to make more safe red seats, and two of those newly created seats could go to Democrats.
Nationally, Republicans are trying mostly to stop losing too many seats. Republican super PACs have stopped spending in at least three once-competitive House races with GOP incumbents, all but ceding them to Democrats.
What Dems would do with a House majority
Democrats won't be able to make laws without some buy-in from some Republicans. In the Senate, most bills need 60 votes to overcome a filibuster, and Trump can veto any legislation that passes both chambers.
But Democrats will have subpoena power. In the majority, Democrats can force almost anyone to testify at hearings (or risk criminal prosecution). Democrats say they're planning sprawling investigations into the administration, including ways in which Trump and his family and supporters have enriched themselves and the president's use of the federal government to benefit his allies and punish his opponents.
A Democratic House will also be the party's top megaphone ahead of the 2028 presidential election. Some Democrats have accused their party of lacking a strategy to reach voters who don't prioritize holding Trump accountable.
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Previously:
• Heads-up for GOPers; must pay attention to these 'bellwether' races
• Can you trust the polls?
• The 9 Senate seats most likely to flip party control in November
• Will regulating AI let China get ahead, or will it save us from doomsday?
• Why Ohio is such a competitive state this year
• Abdul El-Sayed's unlimited attack potential
• The debate over ending the filibuster in the Senate
• Why Michigan is such a big Senate battleground
• The race Dems can't afford to lose is quickly falling apart
• The most interesting candidates of 2026
• The many hang-ups to a peace deal with Iran