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Ohio is a state that voted for President Donald Trump in the past three presidential elections, but this November, Democrats have a real shot to retake a Senate seat, win big House races and even claim the governor's office for the first time in decades.
"Even red states aren't safe when you see a president whose numbers have dropped as much as Trump's have," said Jessica Taylor, the Senate and governors editor for the nonpartisan election analysis site Cook Political Report.
Ohio's competitive governor's race also has taken on a hostile tenor. This weekend, an alleged armed assailant rushed toward the Democratic candidate while she was campaigning before authorities intercepted.
Here's what to know about Ohio and how it fits into the battle for the midterm elections.
Ohio has the potential to magnify Trump's unpopular policies
Ohio once was seen as a swing state that reliably voted for the winner of the presidential election until Trump came on the scene and won it three times, appealing to its White, working — class voters. Democrats have long struggled below the presidential level in Ohio: A Democrat hasn't won the governor's mansion in two decades, and Republicans have controlled the state legislature for almost as long.
But Ohio voters are struggling with many of Trump's unpopular policies, which are shaping the midterm elections more broadly in Democrats' favor.
Ohio is a farming state, and fertilizer is getting more expensive as a result of Trump's war in Iran. Tariffs have yet to deliver a manufacturing revival in a state that also has been reliant on that sector. Trump's mass deportations haven't translated into jobs. Voters in Ohio, like everywhere, are anxious about grocery prices and gas prices that have largely gone up, not down, under Trump. There's also a bipartisan, grassroots push to stop building the data centers that have spread across the state.
"The way things look, it's hard to have hope for anything, honestly," Ohio resident Wayne Harris, 68, told the New York Times.
Ohio has a surprisingly competitive governor's race
It's been 20 years since a Democrat has led Ohio. But Democrat Amy Acton is making the race close despite not being well — known. She's the former state health director who helped lead Ohio's response to the coronavirus pandemic under outgoing Gov. Mike DeWine (R).
Her opponent is Vivek Ramaswamy, a wealthy businessman who ran for president and briefly helped Elon Musk with the U.S. DOGE Service, a contentious effort to reshape the federal bureaucracy and slash government spending.
On paper, this didn't look like a very competitive race, said Lou Jacobson, chief author of the 2026 "Almanac of American Politics."
"Acton is a little bit of a blank slate, and to the extent she was known it was for the covid era, and people don't really think about the covid era fondly," Jacobson said. "So coming into this election cycle you've got an untested candidate, and Vivek had run for president."
Ramaswamy has Trump's endorsement, but he isn't particularly popular among Ohio Republicans. Ramaswamy is also taking criticism in Ohio media for giving evasive answers on his opinions on controversial issues.
Ohio's gubernatorial race has been bitter from the start. In his primary, Ramaswamy had to face down some ugly attacks on the far right about being Indian American. As he campaigns against Acton, he's used violence — laden imagery to characterize her as a threat, falsely describing her as a socialist and spending millions on inflammatory ads against her.
"The Second Amendment was made for times such as these," he said last month. In the wake of the alleged attack on Acton this weekend, he elevated a local sheriff's statement that appeared to downplay the alleged assailant as someone who wanted to "just ask her a couple of questions."
Acton's campaign has described Ramaswamy as "a scam artist who spreads baseless lies about her and her family," and she said she won't debate him.
Jacobson said Acton might benefit from the fact she's little — known in an environment that looks terrible for Republicans.
"States like Ohio often want to experiment with a governor of the other party if they're not currently happy with the way things are going," he said.
Ohio also has one of the biggest Senate races in the country
Sherrod Brown is the only Democrat to hold a Senate seat the state in many years. He narrowly lost his seat in 2024 when Trump was on the ballot — which tends to bring a lot of voters out for Republican candidates. Brown is running again, this time in a friendlier environment for his party and as the challenger.
"No Democrat other than Brown has won the Senate in Ohio in decades," Taylor said, "so he certainly helps at the top of the ticket for Democrats."
He's trying to unseat Sen. Jon Husted (R), who was nominated by the governor to fill the seat left vacant by Vice President JD Vance.
Husted will have to distance himself from Trump to win over moderate voters. And Republicans are warning that he could lose because voters perceive him as being welcoming of data centers. (Husted, unlike other Republicans in the state, has not said he supports removing tax breaks for tech companies to build them.)
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Previously:
• Abdul El-Sayed's unlimited attack potential
• The debate over ending the filibuster in the Senate
• Why Michigan is such a big Senate battleground
• The race Dems can't afford to lose is quickly falling apart
• The most interesting candidates of 2026
• The many hang-ups to a peace deal with Iran