The future of travel is less exotic

I am writing this from Amritsar, India, in the state of Punjab. The Sikh Golden Temple here is one of India's leading attractions, and last night I shared space with thousands of people over the course of four or five hours. In that time, I saw only two people who might qualify as white Westerners.

That simple observation — and my travels over the past year to Denmark, Switzerland, Ireland, Portugal, Mexico, England, Argentina and Colombia — have led me to a theory about the future of travel: The world is entering a new era in which exotic journeys are for more of a travel elite than a moneyed elite.

International travel is rebounding in comfortable "core" locations (for Americans, at least) such as Mexico, London or Dublin. But people are less keen on going farther afield. "Comfort travel" — by which I mean not just nice hotels but familiar surroundings — will be OK. "Challenge travel" — involving not only faraway places but also unaccustomed experiences — faces a more uncertain future.

It's not just my own experience. A colleague who is currently visiting Rajasthan relates that his guide says he hasn't worked with any foreign tourists for more than two years. The Chinese, the world's most frequent travelers, reduced their international travel by 95% in 2021. Or consider the island of Bali, which is admittedly luxurious but still, to many Westerners, exotic. It was formerly a major tourist destination for North Americans, Europeans and Asians, with 6.3 million foreign visitors at its pre-pandemic peak. In all of 2021, it recorded just 45 foreign visitors — and estimates are that the island will need 10 years to recover to previous levels.

One possibility is that international tourism will soon return to its 2019 composition, as people overcome their inhibitions and worry less about COVID risk. I am doubtful.

For one thing, domestic U.S. travel has already rebounded. Reservations for U.S. national parks are difficult to get, and West Virginia and Maine are enjoying a newfound prosperity. Most people are flying and walking through airports without masks, a sign of some comfort with baseline COVID risk. And London, Dublin and Oaxaca had plenty of North American visitors. People seem to be able to satisfy their travel itch without going too far or taking too many chances.

Another problem is that significant parts of Asia have yet to return to normal. China is pursuing a "zero COVID" policy, and the quarantines discourage foreign visitors. Japan still is not open to unescorted foreign visitors, with outdoor masks required. While those restrictions will eventually pass, people are getting out of the habit of thinking of Asia as a major tourist destination. I am even reluctant to take connecting flights through Tokyo, like I used to, for fear that if my connection were canceled, I couldn't stay the night in Narita and enjoy some sushi.

When people are forced to adjust, as happened during peak pandemic times, they learn new things. What many Americans and Westerners have learned is that they enjoy "comfort travel" as much if not more than "challenge travel." A lot of the new habits are going to stick. Especially with group travel, the preferences of comfort travelers will tend to win out in choosing a destination.

One slightly sorry truth is that many people do not very much enjoy challenge travel, which can be stressful and almost like work. When the social and group pressures to do it are removed or lessened, challenge travel is likely to decline, although the hardcore challenge travelers will remain and perhaps even expand their ambitions.

Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here.

The future for challenge travel, then, may be that it becomes both less popular and more intense. In this sense it may harken back to an earlier era of travel, where risk and difficulty were ever present and surprises were frequent. It was a time when there was not a Starbucks on every corner — or, as the case may be, a Subway sandwich shop. (There is one in the pedestrian district of Amritsar, but I don't think it is the future of dining here.)

In this re-emerging world of exotic travel, there will be less incentive to make everything comfortable and easy. Travelers who seek out the truly exotic will find new opportunities, and prices will stay low or perhaps fall further. The surrounding tourist infrastructure will be less likely to evolve toward familiarity. If you are a challenge traveler, maybe your favorite spot is less likely to get ruined.

This growing bifurcation of travel between comfort and challenge won't benefit everyone. Many people will play it safe, opting for Cabo rather than the wild Pacific coast of Colombia. They won't experience the world of challenge travel at all. I, for one, will not miss them.

(COMMENT, BELOW)

Cowen is a Bloomberg View columnist. He is a professor of economics at George Mason University and writes for the blog Marginal Revolution. His books include "The Complacent Class: The Self-Defeating Quest for the American Dream."

Previously:
• 08/01/22 Welcome to the era of antisocial media
• 07/25/22 Biden's COVID diagnosis is a wake-up call for America
• 05/12/22 A nuclear strike might not prompt the reaction you expect
• 03/22/22 Doomscrolling has ruined our sense of time
• 01/22/22 Wokeism has peaked
• 01/31/22 The latest bias to worry about
• 01/17/22 America's loneliness epidemic
• 01/07/22 Some of America's top universities just revealed they're not morally serious
• 12/29/21 America would be more happy with more people
• 12/10/21 Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk . . . and Paul McCartney
• 12/08/21 The only two pieces of advice you'll ever need
• 11/29/21 Nuclear fusion is close enough to start dreaming
• 10/27/21 America's national mood disorder
• 06/10/21 Lifting of mask mandates poses a challenge for Libertarians
• 05/28/21 Why economics is failing us
• 04/19/21We need green energy. We don't need green jobs
• 04/14/21 Libertarianism isn't dead. It's just reinventing itself
• 04/05/21 What does the world need? More humans
• 02/10/21 If Biden goes big now, he may have to go small later
• 01/12/21 Covid improved how the world does science
• 12/07/20 How to make sure your complaint is heard
• 10/27/20 It's getting better and worse at the same time
• 09/14/20 How to be happy during a pandemic
• 09/04/20 Trump is winning the vaccine debate with public health experts
• 07/01/20 Why Americans are having an emotional reaction to masks
• 05/20/20 Covid-19 will expose the ghosts in the U.S. economy
• 05/07/20 Are aliens visiting us? US military seems to think so
• 05/06/20 America's reopening will depend on one thing --- trust
• 04/22/20 How the covid-19 recession is like World War II
• 04/15/20 America is returning to 1781
• 04/08/20 Covid-19 is is upending everything for status seekers
• 03/17/20 The coronavirus will usher in a new era of entertainment
• 01/28/20 Social Security isn't doomed for younger generations
• 01/08/20 Why 2020 is harder to predict than 2019 was
• 12/02/19 Equality is a mediocre goal so aim for progress
• 11/25/19 Inflation inequality creates winners and losers
• 11/09/19 OK kids. This boomer has had enough
• 10/20/19 Would you bet against Trump in 2020?
• 09/25/19 The right industrial policy for America
• 09/24/19 Harvard's legacies are nothing to be proud of
• 09/02/19 Yes, the Fed could still stop a recession
• 08/20/19 A trade deal with China wouldn't change much
• 07/29/19 How your personality traits affect your paycheck
• 07/16/19 Internet 101 should be a required class
• 05/28/19 How Dems actually are the ANTI-immigrant party
• 04/23/19 Want to help fight climate change? Have more children
• 03/22/19 America isn't as divided as it looks
• 03/12/19 The Twitter takeover of politics: You ain't seen nothing yet
• 03/04/19 How to tell which Dem dreams won't come true
• 02/07/19: Now the Dems want to end America's nuclear first strike option. How clueless is that?
• 01/29/19: The shutdown hit a lot of government workers --- hard. But, ultimately, who is responsible for their unfortunate circumstances?
• 12/12/18: The West is abusing its legal power to punish people or institutions that do things it doesn't like. It better stop
• 10/23/18: The US needs Saudi Arabia, and vice versa
• 10/19/18: The right finds the perfect weapon against the left
• 07/24/18: The drive for the perfect child gets a little scary
• 06/04/18: Side effects of the decline of men in labor market
• 05/14/18: Proving Marx's theories right
• 05/08/18: Holding up a mirror to intellectuals of the left
• 05/01/18: Virtual reality will make lives better ... mostly
• 04/16/18: It's hard to burst your political filter bubbleIt's hard to burst your political filter bubble
• 04/09/18: The missing key to grasping why American politics seems to have become more polarized, with no apparent end in sight
• 04/05/18: Two American power centers are about to clash
• 03/22/18: We fear what we can't control about Uber and Facebook
• 03/08/18: How to stop the licen$ing insanity
• 01/10/18: Polarized Congress needs to bring back earmarks
• 12/27/17: The year when the Internet collides with reality
• 11/07/17: Would you blame the phone for Russian interference?
• 10/23/17: North Korea is playing a longer game than the US
• 10/12/17: Why conservatives should celebrate Thaler's Nobel
• 08/02/17: Too many of today's innovations are focused on solving problems rather than creating something new