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The last time a papal conclave convened, in 2013, Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio of Argentina was a 25-to-1 long shot. If you were a gambler, they're odds few would take. A far safer bet would have been Cardinal Angelo Scola, then the archbishop of Milan, at 2-to-1 or Peter Turkson from Ghana at 5-to-2.
But just two days and five ballots later, as white smoke billowed from the chimney of the Sistine Chapel, the world would meet Pope Francis.
As the Catholic Church enters into one of its most secret and sacred rituals, a modern practice with centuries-old roots is playing out: betting on the next pope. Though the actual act looks a little different today, gamblers continue to lay odds on who will don the white cassock, with more money wagered on the outcome than ever before.
"I placed my bet on [Cardinal Matteo] Zuppi," says Alessandro Allara of Rome, who spent his career working in the betting industry and now hosts an Italian podcast called "Confessions of a Bookmaker."
"It's been a long time since we've had an Italian pope," Allara says, "and Zuppi would be a more rock-and-roll type of pope."
Allara put down about $170 at 8-to-1 odds through Paddy Power, the Irish bookmaker he worked for during the 2013 conclave.
While Italian sports betting sites regularly offer novelty bets, they do not allow betting on the pope or its own national elections, nor do American sites or casinos. You won't find people putting down Holy See bets at a Las Vegas sportsbook alongside the NBA playoffs. That's where event futures trading comes in.
As of Wednesday morning, Kalshi, the first legal and regulated prediction site in the United States, and Polymarket, which bills itself as the world's largest, were showing a combined $29 million in contracts traded over who will be the next pope, what continent or country he'll be from, how long the conclave will take, and what name he'll choose.
Prediction markets are not the same as traditional sportsbooks. But their ability to make it easy to put money on a hunch has driven this year's explosion of pope-related betting, er, we mean trading. Paddy Power and William Hill, two overseas gambling companies, began taking bets on the papacy in 2005, when Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger from Germany became Pope Benedict XVI after the death of Pope John Paul II. That year, Paddy took in about $384,000 in bets.
That number grew to $1.1 million in 2013 - when Bergoglio became Francis. At the time, it was the largest-ever handle for a nonsporting betting market in the company's history. Now, in 2025, prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi are pushing those totals into the tens of millions. The largest "bet" available to most users is $25,000, though neither company would reveal how many "whales" are putting money into papal markets.
At this year's conclave, 135 cardinals under the age of 80, hailing from 71 countries, were eligible to vote, though two have dropped out due to health reasons, leaving 133. Of those, 108, or approximately 80 percent, were elevated to cardinal by Francis. To be elected, a single cardinal needs to secure two-thirds of the vote - or 89 ballots this year.
"It's not about winning," says Father James Martin, a Jesuit priest and author, emphasizing that the conclave is meant to be a spiritual process, not the Kentucky Derby. "It really shouldn't be about who wins, who loses, who's up, who's down. That's not really what the conclave is about."
Still, Martin acknowledges that betting on this outcome "is inevitable. People bet on all sorts of things," he says, "so why wouldn't they be betting on this?"
Perhaps, but picking a winner isn't easy.
"It's a peculiar situation with pope betting," says Allara, who was a marketing executive with Paddy Power in 2013. "You don't have any reference. There's no rankings. You can't look back at the past six games. You have nothing."
Allara says whoever starts off as a favorite probably will stay a favorite, with others moving up and down based on rumors and conjecture.
From a bookmaker's perspective, Allara explains, the first bets are simply used for calibrating the odds. "You have just one or two favorites in the very beginning. But then, when the bets come in, the odds change dramatically."
This conclave, early favorites include Francis's second-in-command, Cardinal Pietro Parolin of Italy, as well as Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines (the "Asian Francis"), Turkson (a 5-to-2 favorite in 2013) and conservative Cardinal Peter Erdo from Hungary.
Italian Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa has been climbing the betting board in recent days - and many speculate it's simply because of his tasty name. Allara's pick, Zuppi, the archbishop of Bologna, also saw a late bump.
• A sacred wagering tradition
Papal betting is nothing new. It goes back at least 500 years.
Nicholas Baker, a visiting professor at the University of Richmond and a historian of Renaissance Italian history, says that, although we don't know exactly how long ago the practice started, there's evidence that it goes back at least to the 14th or 15th century. "In the 16th century, it became really quite established," he said.
Though conclaves happened in secret, bettors during the 16th century had inside tracks through newsletters and dispatches of well-informed ambassadors, according to a paper on papal betting from the University of Nevada at Las Vegas. Rumors fueled papal wagers - some spread deliberately by brokers to influence the conclave and the wagering.
By 1588, Pope Sixtus V formally created the "College for Brokers of Wagers," a legal body that oversaw public betting in Rome, where betting markets were integrated with shipping insurance and other speculative ventures that were key financial instruments in early Italian capitalism.
"Italians at the time weren't just betting on popes," Baker said. "They were betting on the nomination of cardinals, royal appointments. And one of their favorite and most notorious games was betting on the sex of unborn children."
The legal run didn't last. In 1591, Pope Gregory XIV banned papal betting under threat of excommunication. That edict held until 1918. But enforcement was always questionable, and interest in pope odds never really waned, Baker said.
By the time John Paul II died in 2005, modern sportsbooks were ready to fully embrace conclave odds.
The big difference this time around is the rise of prediction markets.
Kalshi, a federally regulated platform that serves only American customers, allows real-money trading on political, economic and even ecclesiastical events. On Monday, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) dropped its legal challenge against the company. A court had previously ruled in Kalshi's favor, and the Justice Department's voluntary dismissal effectively secured Kalshi's right to offer real-money contracts in all 50 states on such things as sports, politics and papal picks.
As of Wednesday, the site is letting traders buy and sell $1 contracts on who will be pope, what continent and country he will hail from, how long the conclave will last, and what name he will take. Prices fluctuate based on speculation, media coverage and rumors from inside Rome.
"In terms of activity, it's roughly equivalent to the Super Bowl," said Kalshi spokesman Jack Such.
Polymarket, a crypto-based platform banned for U.S. users but popular abroad, is seeing similar engagement.
Such says pope markets appeal precisely because the process is so opaque. "With low-information events like papal elections," he said, "prediction markets are uniquely well-positioned to bring out important signals and trends." As of Wednesday morning, more than $8 million had been traded on Kalshi's papal markets. Polymarket was showing more than $21 million in transactions.
"Historically, trading volume on Kalshi grows exponentially the closer it gets to the date of resolution. Almost half of all trading volume on the US Presidential election market happened in the 48 hours before the election was called. We expect this to be similar in the papal market," Such said in an email.
The markets, it seems, believe in last-minute divine intervention.
Dan Michalski is a reporter based in Las Vegas and the editor of Casinos.com.
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