Contact The Editor
Articles By This Author
When I interviewed Patriarch Ignatius Aphrem II of the Syriac Orthodox Church in Damascus on Feb. 27, neither one of us knew that the outlook for Syria, newly liberated from a despotic regime, was about to take a dramatic turn for the worse.
"I personally remain optimistic - but very cautiously optimistic," Aphrem said. "If things go the way they are going now, there is a chance of having a better Syria." On Thursday, things began going off the rails. A bloody conflict erupted between regime loyalists and the Islamist government's forces, with the latter apparently also embarking on the sort of sectarian slaughter of civilians that many had feared when rebel forces gained power three months ago.
On Dec. 8, Bashar al-Assad's rule, which had survived 13 years of civil war, suddenly toppled like a Jenga tower, and the dictator was sent scrambling to retirement in Moscow. The Islamist group that forced his ouster - Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, commonly referred to as HTS - set up an interim government with an acting president, Ahmed al-Sharaa formerly known by his nom de guerre, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani.
Sharaa might be unique among heads of state as someone formerly held in U.S. custody. He traveled to Iraq in 2003 to join al-Qaeda; he did so, and was captured and held at Camp Bucca. He later formed the Nusra Front in Syria at the start of the civil war in 2011 as an affiliate of the Islamic State. But in 2013, Sharaa had a falling out with Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, and the Nusra Front split off.
Assad was a member of a Muslim group called Alawites. They and Christians and other minorities had plenty of good reasons to be wary of the new Sunni Muslim government with a radical past. But in interviews with Western media organizations, Sharaa sounded like a man more interested in repairing a shattered country than in crushing minority groups.
"The next phase of five years will revolve around rebuilding the state on new and modern foundations," he told the Economist in late January. "It is going to promote justice and counseling, and it is going to be based on the participation of all segments of society in running the country."
When I sat down with Aphrem nearly a month later, a wide variety of Syrian leaders had just completed a two-day "national dialogue summit." The conference was not exactly brimming with specific suggestions to guide the formation of a new government, but it did resolve that a draft constitution should feature "a balance between authorities, establishing justice, freedom, and equality, and laying the foundation for a state of law and institutions."
Late last week, Syria's tense post-Assad relative stability came crashing down. In the coastal region of Latakia, the Alawite sect's heartland, the Islamist government's security forces clashed with fighters loyal to Assad. The fighting spilled into the neighboring Homs and Tartus provinces. And disturbing reports began pouring into Western media describing the killing of hundreds of civilians. "Armed men loyal to the Syrian government," CNN reported Sunday, "carried out field executions and spoke of purifying the country, according to eyewitnesses and video, providing a gruesome picture of a crackdown against remnants of the former Assad regime that spiraled into communal killings."
Over the weekend, Aphrem and other Syrian Christian Orthodox leaders issued a joint statement calling for "an immediate end to these horrific acts, which stand in stark opposition to all human and moral values" and urging "peaceful solutions that uphold human dignity and preserve national unity."
It was a nice three months of relative peace while it lasted.
The violence is a stinging setback for a nation that had been ravaged by years of a brutal civil war, Assad's use of chemical weapons, and a toll of civilian casualties so high that international human rights organizations can't make a solid estimate - anywhere from the Violations Documenting Center's 147,000 to the United Nations' 301,000 to the common shorthand "half a million." In 2017, the Assad regime, with Russia's help, bombed the Damascus suburb of Jobar to rubble. Nearly a decade later, nothing has been rebuilt - it's a ghost town of architectural bones.
I unknowingly timed my visit to Syria to enjoy what may well have been the last good days in Syria for a long time. We arrived two days before Ramadan, and the market in Old Damascus was packed shoulder to shoulder, with the occasional motorcycle working its way through the crowd. The new Syrian flag, similar to the independence flag used from the 1930s to the 1960s - black, green and white with three red stars - hung everywhere.
In Damascus, if young people in their 20s heard me and my companions speaking English, they often would smile and some would say, "Welcome to Syria!" As one Syrian man put it to me, "We are a hospitable culture, and for the past 13 years, we haven't been able to have guests."
But Damascus isn't necessarily reflective of the whole country. In Idlib, the Shahada flag flies from a high flagpole beside the city's museum. This flag features is the Muslim statement of faith in black script on a white background. It is used by the Taliban; ISIS often used a similar version of white script on a black background. No one confronted my small group of Western travelers as we walked Idlib's streets, but we stood out and got some wary looks.
The Syrians I spoke with desperately wanted Western sanctions on their country lifted. They had a decent argument that sanctions put in place to punish the Assad regime shouldn't apply to a government run by the guys who toppled him. Plenty of people in Syria deserve more, deserve a chance to build a better future for their children.
But given the carnage now unleashed in Syria, it's hard to envision the United States or other Western governments lifting sanctions anytime soon. Here's hoping that Syria hasn't closed one dark chapter of its history only to start a new one.
Jim Geraghty is National Review's senior political correspondent, where he writes the daily "Morning Jolt" newsletter, among other writing duties.
Previously:
• 10/09/24: It's late to fight over voting rules, but they're doing it anyway
• 07/16/24: Trump picks a VP that's just like Trump
(COMMENT, BELOW)