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A record-high 45 percent of Americans identified as political independents in Gallup polls last year, but that statistic carries a huge asterisk.
Decades of surveys show most independents lean Democratic or Republican, and those who do look a lot like partisans in their political views and how they vote. Political scientists and media have dubbed some independents "Undercover Partisans," "Republican Lookalikes" and "Disguised Democrats."
While few independents fit the ideal of an unbiased swing voter, recent research suggests there's more to the story:
— "Reluctant partisans, not undercover partisans" Duke University postdoctoral researcher Alex Tolkin investigated why people switch from Democrat or Republican to independent by tracking party identification among roughly 5,000 Americans from 2016 to 2022 in a probability-based NORC survey. The best predictors of switching to independent were having negative opinions of their initial party and disliking their party's 2020 presidential candidate, suggesting that many independents have substantive beefs with their preferred party.
It has nothing to do with how willing they are to express a political opinion, or how civil they think politics is, or anything like that. They just don't like their party anymore.
Alex Tolkin, postdoctoral researcher at Duke University
— Partisanship doesn't color their perceptions of reality (as much) Perceptions of the economy, seriousness of crime and other issues have been increasingly tainted by partisanship. But because independents are less loyal, they are more likely to base their opinions in real-world experiences than partisan cues, according to political scientists Joshua Dyck of the University of Massachusetts at Lowell and Shanna Pearson-Merkowitz of the University of Maryland. Their research found that among pure independents, concern about crime was closely tied to actual levels of crime where they live - the higher the crime rate, the more concerned independents were about the problem. By contrast, strong partisans' crime concerns were largely disconnected from local-level crime rates.
Why does any of this matter? President Donald Trump's weakness among political independents - particularly independents who lean Republican - is a key factor behind his low approval ratings and the challenges Republicans face this fall.
Washington Post-Ipsos polls show Trump's approval rating among Republican-leaning independents has fallen from 76 percent in February 2025 to 52 percent in July, even as 81 percent of self-identifying Republicans approved of his job performance this summer. The latest poll also found a big gap in economic perceptions: 50 percent of Republicans said groceries were affordable for them, compared with 32 percent of independents who lean Republican.
What it means for the midterm elections
One way to think about independents who lean toward a party is a wayward segment of the base that needs extra persuasion to vote. While just 12 percent of "pure" independents were confirmed to vote in the 2022 midterm elections, according to a Pew Research Center study, turnout rose to nearly 4 in 10 among independents who lean Democratic or Republican. By comparison, 53 percent of rank-and-file Democrats and 59 percent of Republicans voted that year.
This year, the Democratic base appears more motivated to vote, a pattern that trickles down to independents who lean toward each party. The July Post-Ipsos poll found 63 percent of Democratic-leaning independent registered voters were certain to vote, slightly higher than 57 percent of independents who lean Republican. More than 6 in 10 Democratic-leaning independents said it is "more important to vote" than previous midterm elections, compared with about 4 in 10 Republicans-leaning independents.
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Previously:
• Wisconsin surprise raises big questions about polls and Dem voters