Bloomberg
SUMMERVILLE, South Carolina — Former President Donald Trump arrived in this suburb of Charleston, South Carolina, buoyed by a new Washington Post poll that showed him leading President Joe Biden by 10 points in a hypothetical 2024 rematch. "That's a lot," Trump said of his lead. "It's hard for Republicans to lead by that much in the fake news media."
Trump then went on to mock the Washington Post for distancing itself from its own poll. "They said this must be an outlier," Trump said, which was an accurate summary of what the Washington Post had indeed reported. "The numbers must be wrong — it was their poll!" That, too, was correct — when the Washington Post's research showed Trump with a big lead, the paper suggested its own research must be wrong.
"These are corrupt people," Trump concluded, and it was unlikely that anyone in the crowd disagreed. The Washington Post's obvious discomfort with the findings of its expensive and sophisticated polling operation made it easy for Trump supporters who don't like legacy media in the first place to assume it was all corrupt. The pollsters could fret all day long about whether the question was worded correctly or whether it was placed among other questions in the right order, but Trump supporters simply saw it as part of one big, crooked operation.
But the bigger question is: How did Trump get that lead? And if he is not really leading Biden by 10 points and is instead ahead by only a point or two — how did he get that lead? How is Trump, nearly three years out of office and facing four indictments, ahead of the incumbent president?
Here's one answer, after listening to Trump and talking to people who came to see him on a hot, sweaty late September day in the Lowcountry of South Carolina. Trump's message is compelling because it is, in essence, the spoken-word version of the feelings about the state of the country expressed in...the Washington Post poll. Other polls, too.
In a shortened version of his old speech — Trump spoke for a little more than half an hour, mercifully short in the debilitating heat — Trump spent most of his time discussing the economy. His message was simple: Things were good when I was president. They have gone to hell since Biden became president. I will make them good again if you return me to the White House.
"Under my leadership, we built the greatest economy in the history of the world," Trump told the crowd. "We did it twice, if you remember" — a reference to the economy before COVID-19 and after. "When I left office, business was roaring."
Then came Biden inflation that hit nearly 10%. Buying food, gas, and other essentials became burdensome for millions of people. Home mortgages went up as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to combat inflation. "Crooked Joe's inflation crisis has raised costs for small businesses," Trump said. "Biden's energy crisis...soaring interest rates...loans much more expensive...household incomes have been crushed. ... A vote for Crooked Joe Biden is a vote for inflation, taxation, submission, and failure."
Trump spoke at length about the economy and his proposed solutions. More than anything else, it is the core of his message. And why does it work? Because it reflects what the polls, including the Washington Post poll, show voters are most concerned about. In the new Washington Post poll, just 30% of those surveyed approved of Biden's handling of the economy, versus 64% who disapproved. Just 25% said the state of the economy is excellent or good (actually, just 2% said it is excellent, while 23% said it is good). Seventy-four percent said it is not so good or poor.
In a Washington Post poll from November 2018, when Trump was president, 65% said the economy was excellent or good, while just 34% said it was not so good or poor. In another Washington Post poll from September 2019, the numbers were 56% excellent or good and 43% not so good or poor. Even in September 2020, after COVID-19 struck, Trump's numbers were substantially better than Biden's are today, with 40% saying the economy was excellent or good.
On some specifics, the Washington Post found even worse results for Biden. Just 12% said gas or energy prices were excellent or good. Just 8% said the same about food prices. Just 21% said the incomes of average workers were excellent or good.
In the big picture, just 15% told the Washington Post that they are "better off financially then [they] were when Biden became president," while 44% said they were not as well off. In November 2018, 25% said they were better off since Trump became president, while just 13% said they were not as well off.
Now, Trump promises to fix things again. "We had to do it twice, and now we're going to do it a third time," he said, "but it's going to be bigger, better, stronger than ever before." Elect Trump again, he promised, and he will "turn the Biden economic bust into another Trump economic boom." Rather than the inflation and taxation of another Biden term, Trump promised, "A vote for Trump is a vote for more jobs, higher wages, and more boats, cars, trucks, and airplanes stamped 'Made in America.'"
Given the results of the Washington Post poll and others, is it any wonder that such a message resonates? Of course it resonates. People have been through a lot economically since Biden became president.
For Trump supporters, unhappiness with the Biden economy, or Bidenomics, mixes with a total distrust of the public officials and institutions pursuing Trump. I asked everyone I spoke to about the indictments against Trump, and every single person dismissed them as politically motivated. "They couldn't be more political," one man from Charleston said. "I think they are political," a woman who had moved to South Carolina from Connecticut said. "They're bulls***," her husband added. "It's a setup," a woman from Charleston said. "They're throwing anything and everything at him," a woman from Daniel Island said. "It's unfair — they're trying to keep him out of the running," a woman from Kingstree said. When I asked, "Will it work?" she answered, "No — because G od's got this."
Finally, like many Democrats, some Trump supporters have adopted an apocalyptic view of the 2024 election — that a victory by the other side might well mean the end of the United States. Like the Democratic version, it's a bleak vision, but one Trump encourages. "I tell you, if we don't get back, I really believe this country is finished," Trump told the crowd. A short time later, a woman said to me, "If he doesn't get back in, we're done."
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