Can big money backfire?

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High-profile Democratic primaries in Michigan and Missouri tested whether anger over outside spending can overcome enormous financial advantages. In the Michigan Senate primary, progressive Abdul El-Sayed is running against centrist Rep. Haley Stevens, attacking the congresswoman for benefiting handsomely from corporate and pro-Israel super PAC spending.

In Missouri, former representative Cori Bush was hoping to make a comeback riding the progressive rage against pro-Israel spending supporting her opponent, Rep. Wesley Bell.

Whether those messages are landing will become clear today. Both El-Sayed and Bush have been considerably overspent, but El-Sayed in particular appears to have a real shot of winning, leading in several recent public polls.

Stevens's campaign has raised more than $11 million as of mid-July, according to Federal Election Commission filing reports, with contributors from small-dollar donors to energy, chemical and pro-Israel interest groups.

Dwarfing that is an enormous amount of money buying ads supporting Stevens independent of her campaign. AIPAC and affiliated groups have spent close to $30 million backing Stevens, according to ad-tracking firm AdImpact. She also has several more millions from dark-money groups whose backers are not publicly disclosed.

In other election years, that kind of cash advantage could seal the deal for Stevens. But this year, the money has become a line of attack.

"There's a reason that I'm up in nearly all the polls, despite the fact that they've outspent us 20 to 1, 30 to 1," El-Sayed told me last month. "That money is corrupting on its own terms, and people understand what will transpire if they support a candidate who's taking that kind of money, and they don't want that anymore."

Democratic attitudes toward Israel have shifted sharply, and candidates perceived as supporting Israel's war in Gaza are often cast as out of touch with their base. But, El-Sayed argues, just as powerful is frustration that a lobby that operates to benefit a foreign government is spending millions to influence an American election.

A similar dynamic is happening in Missouri, where AIPAC's super PAC is spending more than $2 million to support Bell, who has the clear cash advantage. He has raised more than $3.5 million as of mid-July to Bush's roughly $1.3 million. But the race remains competitive.

The Missouri House race was a bit of a precursor to the current backlash to outside spending. Bush was ousted from Congress in 2024 during a bruising primary battle into which AIPAC poured money to support Bell. The difference now is that more voters are aware of the influence of AIPAC and may respond more negatively to it.

"The only reason Wesley Bell is even in Congress is because AIPAC bought him that seat in Congress," said Usamah Andrabi, communications director at Justice Democrats, which supports Bush. "It takes some losses for us to really bring the scope of how corrupt these lobbies are to the general public and for them to really understand that."

The animus toward AIPAC is so severe that the group has used other vehicles for its funding in some Democratic primaries. In Illinois, for example, the group funded PACs with neutral-sounding names like Elect Chicago Women to funnel money in support of their preferred candidates. It wasn't until after primary day that they disclosed being funded by AIPAC.

Both Bell and Stevens deny the notion that such spending is dictating their positions. Stevens has accused her opponent of peddling in antisemitic tropes by accusing her of supporting Israel solely because she receives support from the pro-Israel lobby.

"The difference between my opponent and myself on this issue is that I believe in a two-state solution," Stevens said during a debate last month. "I can say that Israel has a right to peacefully exist alongside the people of Palestine and in Gaza."

Pro-Israel groups defend their right to spend money in elections like any other interest group.

"It's our goal to build the biggest possible bipartisan pro-Israel majority in Congress," said Patrick Dorton, a spokesperson for AIPAC's super PAC. "We want to make sure that the voice of pro-Israel Democrats is heard in the primary process."