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Donald Trump's push to redraw the congressional map has fueled a redistricting arms race, with blue and red states rushing to counter each other.
But it's an uneven fight.
Republicans appear to hold the advantage in the nationwide scramble, according to strategists and nonpartisan analysts, with more opportunities to shift the lines in their favor ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Democrats have vowed to "fight fire with fire" since the GOP moved to add five red seats in Texas, but they face many barriers.
Republicans are eyeing ways to add a dozen or more red House districts across Texas, Florida, Missouri, Ohio and Indiana, despite some legal hurdles and reservations from local Republicans. Democrats are looking to retaliate with five more blue seats in California, and they are exploring other options, including in Maryland and Illinois. They control fewer states than Republicans, however, and they have already maximized their power in others. In some cases, they would have to work around independent commissions set up to prevent gerrymandering.
"The Republicans are pretty likely to come out ahead - it's just a question of how much they come out ahead," said Kyle Kondik, an elections analyst for the nonpartisan site Sabato's Crystal Ball.
Democrats say they are determined to blunt Trump's push for more red seats, even if they cannot stop it. As Republicans defend a 219-212 House majority with four vacancies, even small shifts in the map could tip control of Congress in 2026.
"It's sort of irrelevant how lopsided you think the battle is going to be - you've got to get your play in," said Maryland House Majority Leader David Moon (D), who is working on legislation that would redraw his blue state's congressional map if others go ahead with mid-decade redistricting. "I don't see that we've got any choice."
States normally draw new congressional districts once a decade, after each census, but Texas moved to change the lines ahead of schedule, eliciting outrage from Democratic lawmakers, who left the state to stall the plan. Now other states are looking to follow suit.
Nationwide, slightly more House seats are considered Republican or Republican-leaning (211) than Democratic or Democratic-leaning (206) heading into 2026, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. The latest round of redistricting would probably boost Republicans further, analysts said, as they try to withstand a potential blue wave.
California is Democrats' best bet to create new blue seats, though strategists acknowledge it could be a heavy lift. Democratic leaders there are working on a ballot measure that would ask voters in the fall to temporarily redraw the congressional map in Democrats' favor if the GOP moves ahead in Texas - overriding the independent state commission meant to keep the lines nonpartisan.
"The question right now is, 'Exactly how ticked off are California voters?'" said Justin Levitt, a California-based law professor and expert on redistricting.
Democratic leaders in New York also have said they would redraw their map in response to Texas. Legislators want to change the state constitution to circumvent an independent redistricting body. But that process would not be complete until after the 2026 elections.
Democratic strategists said they view Maryland, Illinois and Oregon as the next most plausible places where they could attempt to create new blue seats. The congressional delegations from those states are already heavily Democratic, however, leaving limited room for gains. Maryland and Oregon have one red House seat apiece, while Illinois has three - a result of an already gerrymandered map.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-New York) has floated other states, too, and said recently on ABC News that "it's important for us to respond coast to coast."
David Daley, a senior fellow at the anti-gerrymandering group FairVote and an author of books on redistricting and voting rights, said Republicans and Democrats have both drawn maps to their advantage - and now Democrats have fewer opportunities left.
"Democrats and Republicans have each been fighting the gerrymandering wars this decade," he said. "Democrats simply ran out of ammo first."
Republicans, meanwhile, are hopeful that they can carve out a couple more red seats in Ohio - which was already slated to redraw its lines this year - and another in Missouri, where GOP operatives say action is likely this year. They have also discussed creating at least two or three more red seats in Florida, where the GOP House leader last week moved to create a redistricting committee.
Both Florida and Ohio have language in their state constitutions saying that - in at least some circumstances - districts should not be drawn to favor one political party, and gerrymanders would probably spur court challenges. But Florida's Supreme Court, which is filled with Republican appointees, recently rejected a challenge to the current maps based on the state constitution's "Fair Districts" rules.
One Republican strategist close to the redistricting process, who like some others spoke on the condition of anonymity to share internal thinking, noted that the makeup of Ohio's court has shifted since its past rulings rejecting maps for violating the state constitution. Republicans expanded their majority on the court in last year's elections. In 2022, Ohio used a map the court had rejected.
"There is no scenario where we don't have more seats to go get than they do," the Republican strategist said of the GOP's redistricting position nationwide compared with that of Democrats. "No doubt about it."
Democrats are hoping that reluctant state-level Republicans will ultimately decline to go through with redistricting in some places where it is under consideration - and that courts will block some changes.
"We need to see courts in these states that will uphold the law and uphold the state constitutions, and the question is whether we get that - [or] if we get ideological decisions from state courts that disregard the state constitution or bend the knee to Donald Trump," said Marina Jenkins, executive director of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee.
Vice President JD Vance visited Indiana last week to discuss redrawing its congressional map, which could net Republicans one more seat. But many GOP state lawmakers are hesitant, and Republicans familiar with the redistricting push said it is unclear what will happen there. In New Hampshire - another state where the GOP could make gains - the Republican governor has expressed reluctance.
"The timing is off for this, because we are literally in the middle of the census period," Gov. Kelly Ayotte told local news station WMUR. "And when I talk to people in New Hampshire … it's not on the top of their priority list."
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