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There isn't a lot for Republicans to be excited about ahead of November's elections. President Donald Trump's numbers aren't good, voters are giving Republicans poor ratings on handling the economy, and the main midterm battlefield - the nation's sweeping suburbs - has seemingly shifted to the left.
But Republicans tasked with holding the House are cautiously optimistic that another part of the country - the roughly 2,000-mile border between the United States and Mexico - could provide their party with a bulwark against losses elsewhere.
The reasons are varied, from redistricting that has made races in Texas more favorable for Republicans to the way Trump performed with Latino voters in 2024.
"They are tired of having representation, specifically Democrats, who have historically abandoned them," said Eric Flores, a Republican Army veteran and lawyer who is running in the South Texas district around Brownsville. The district is currently represented by Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas). "So, why is there optimism? It's because they want to continue to see results. They saw that with President Trump on day one."
The districts in question extend from Flores's would-be district in South Texas to Southern California. The most competitive races include the district currently represented by Rep. Henry Cuellar (D) around Laredo, Texas; the Southern New Mexico race represented by Rep. Gabriel Vasquez (D) and the Southern Arizona district around Tucson represented by Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R).
Republicans are particularly hopeful in their ability to recruit Tano Tijerina, a Webb County Judge, in the race against Cuellar, and Greg Cunningham, a Marine and police officer, in the race against Vasquez. They note that the candidates in their most targeted border districts are Hispanic, and they are optimistic that if they flip two Democratic-held districts, the party would control the entire U.S.-Mexico border in Texas, leaving only the district around El Paso in Democratic control.
"When talking about the 2026 battlefield, most people immediately think of suburban swing districts," said a Republican operative working on House races. "But a compelling story is unfolding on the border, where Republicans are well-positioned to potentially represent nearly the entire Texas-Mexico border and along vast parts of the New Mexico and Arizona borders."
The question for Republicans, however, is less about their recruits and more about the national environment in which they are running. Democrats have long argued that Trump's 2024 success with Latinos was a high-water mark for the party, not an entire reshuffling of the electorate.
And there is plenty of data to back that up. A series of polls have shown Latino voters souring on Trump personally, have rethought their 2024 vote, and are growing skeptical of how Republicans have handled the economy over the last year, the issue that defined Trump's campaign.
"That is the number one demographic that the Trump administration is losing," said Katy Padilla Stout, a former teacher who is running as a Democrat for a congressional seat that represents hundreds of miles of the border from outside El Paso to south of Del Rio.
Padilla Stout said first-time Trump voters in her district - many of whom are Latino - said there was "a lot of discontent" with the Biden administration, so they "decided to switch sides, go ahead and vote for President Trump and hope that things would get better."
"They have seen in real time that that is not the case," she said. "I think now they recognize that the grass isn't always greener."
The competitiveness of these districts will depend on two things: whether Latino voters actually flee Republicans in the numbers that polls are showing and how successful Texas Republicans were in redistricting these border districts.
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott "launched a redistricting war to save the Republican Congress, gambling that Latino voters will fall in line," said Xochitl Hinojosa, a longtime Democratic operative from Texas whose sister, Gina Hinojosa, is the Democratic nominee for governor. "They won't. ... Conservative Latinos were promised lower prices, and instead, their businesses are struggling because of tariffs and large-scale, inhumane ICE raids."
Take the district Padilla Stout is vying to represent. Where the old district lines made it somewhat competitive in a truly good year for Democrats, the newly drawn lines would have resulted in Trump winning it by 15 points in 2024.
The same is true in the district Flores hopes to represent. While the district was left-leaning before redistricting, it is now far more right-leaning. Under the new district maps, Trump would have won the district by 10 points.
The question for Democrats is whether the shift in Latino voting habits in 2024 will be sustained two years later. If it is not, some of these races could be far more competitive than Republicans had hoped.
To that end, Flores hinted that he was interested in seeing Trump focus on affordability ahead of the 2026 midterms.
"Everybody's concerned about affordability," Flores said. "We need to bring forth affordability."
Trump recently declined to sign a housing affordability bill, refusing to do so until the Senate passes a sweeping election security law. Flores said he understands the focus on election security but argued both need to get done.
"We have to also focus on the integrity of our elections, and that's what the president is demanding," Flores said. "At the same time, again, a major piece for our constituents, not only here in Texas 34, but throughout the country, is some affordability for our housing."
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