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Former President Donald Trump is back in a Manhattan courtroom after a break. On the way to court last week, Trump stopped at a construction site where he received an enthusiastic welcome from workers chanting, "USA! USA! USA!" That just happened to occur the morning after President Joe Biden received the endorsement of the North America's Building Trades Unions leadership in Washington.
While Biden met with the bigwigs, Trump felt the love of the hard hats. As with Trump's visit to a Harlem bodega last week, the stop-by was a planned event — these things don't happen by accident. But it showed that even as he stands trial, Trump can work in a campaign event before court convenes.
It's obviously a limited sort of campaigning, with Trump confined to New York City while Biden travels to campaign in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and other key states. But at least New York is the world's media capital and everything Trump does there will be seen.
The Trump case is being prosecuted by an elected Democrat in New York, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, with a big assist from a former senior Biden Justice Department official who just happened to join a local district attorney's office for the purpose of trying the former president. As he defends himself, Trump also has to deal with the aftermath of the lawsuit brought by another elected New York Democrat, Attorney General Letitia James, and the charges brought by the elected Democratic district attorney in Fulton County, Georgia, Fani Willis, and two indictments from the Biden Justice Department's chosen Trump prosecutor, Jack Smith.
It almost goes without saying that Democrats are delighted by the current state of affairs. Their party's law enforcement officials have done a bang-up job bringing charges, a total of 88 felony counts, against the de facto Republican presidential nominee. With all of Biden's weaknesses — his age, the economy, immigration, and his 35% job approval rating in a poll out today — they have managed to put Trump in a box from which he might never escape.
That's what Democrats want from the Trump prosecutions. The box doesn't have to be a prison cell, although some would be very happy to see that. It just has to be something that a) cripples Trump's ability to campaign, b) bankrupts him or at least pressures him to use campaign funds for legal bills, and c) erodes Trump's appeal to swing voters who might be less likely to vote for him if he is convicted of a felony.
Biden and his campaign appear to take pleasure in jabbing at Trump over the difficulties Democratic prosecutors have imposed. On Wednesday, a campaign aide poked fun at Trump's inability to travel for campaigning because he is required to be in court. The spokesman sent out a press release headlined "Biden Campaign Statement on Trump's Campaign Events Today." The statement was: "He had none." Ha ha.
In a speech to Washington journalism luminaries in March, Biden joked, "Just yesterday, a defeated-looking man came up to me and said, 'I'm being crushed by debt. I'm completely wiped out.' And I said, 'Sorry, Donald, I can't help you.'" The Washington journalism luminaries laughed.
So Biden and his campaign aides are happy if Trump is going broke while he is tied to a chair in a courtroom. The last benefit they hope to gain is, of course, votes. That is a tricky one. Clearly the indictments of Trump increased his support in the Republican primary race, but the hope is that a conviction will have the opposite effect among general election voters.
Democrats have paid very close attention to polling that asks voters who might be inclined to support Trump whether they would turn away from Trump if he were convicted of a felony. The latest poll to ask that is out from Quinnipiac University, which asked about the New York prosecution: "If he is convicted in this case, would you be more likely to vote for Donald Trump, less likely to vote for Donald Trump, or doesn't it make a difference?"
When the question was first asked, in late March, before the trial started, 12% said conviction would make them more likely to vote for Trump, while 29% said it would make them less likely, and 55% said it would make no difference. Now, it has been asked again, with the trial in its second week, and 15% said it would make them more likely to vote for Trump, while 21% said it would make them less likely, and 62% said it would make no difference.
It's too early to say there's a trend there, but between those two polls at least, the number of people who said a conviction would make them less likely to vote for Trump went down, while the numbers who said it would make them more likely or wouldn't make any difference went up. Still, there's a margin of a few percentage points of voters for whom conviction would mean a Trump vote would be less likely.
Those voters are the Democratic targets. If a Trump conviction, even for a misdemeanor bookkeeping offense inflated by dubious means into a felony, would reduce his vote, then that could be very, very important in a close election. And if that happens, then for Democrats all the prosecutions, even if some derail and never come to trial, would have been worth it.
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