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Democratic fears are rising again about a general election matchup between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. There are two immediate reasons: 1) a new batch of polls showing Biden losing to Trump in every — yes, every — key swing state, and 2) new fears that Biden Justice Department-appointed special counsel Jack Smith might not be able to put Trump on trial and convict him before the Nov. 5 election. Together, they're causing a double freakout among some Democrats and their allies in the media.
First the polls. Starting a week ago, Emerson College and the Hill released a series of swing-state polls, covering Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The polls showed Trump leading Biden in each state: +6 in Georgia, +3 in North Carolina, +6 in Nevada, +3 in Arizona, +2 in Michigan, and +3 in Wisconsin.
Perhaps some were inclined to dismiss the results. After all, it was just one poll by one company. But now comes another set of polls, of the same states plus Pennsylvania, conducted by Bloomberg and Morning Consult. And the results are just as bad for Biden: Trump leads in every state. The new results are Trump +6 in Georgia, +9 in North Carolina, +6 in Nevada, +6 in Arizona, +2 in Michigan, +4 in Wisconsin, and +6 in Pennsylvania.
Now there have been two polls, by two different organizations, in quick succession, examining the same states. And not just any states — the states that will play decisive roles in the November election. It is fair to say that if a candidate wins these states, that candidate will be the next president. And Biden is running behind Trump in all of them.
It's not like this is the first bad news Biden has gotten from the key states. Four months ago, in November 2023, the party went into a frenzy when a series of New York Times-Siena College polls showed Trump leading Biden in five of six key states. The problem now, with the new polling, is: It hasn't gotten any better.
That's where the second part of the double freakout comes in. Explicit or not, the calculation in some parts of the Democratic world is this: Maybe Biden is weak, maybe his polls are terrible, but we'll make Trump a convicted felon, maybe a prison inmate, before the election. That will ensure a Biden victory.
Such thinking suffered a big blow this week when the Supreme Court agreed to hear Trump's argument that he is immune from prosecution for the things he did as president. The case at issue is Smith's prosecution of Trump over the 2020 election and Jan. 6. The judge in the case, Tanya Chutkan, had originally planned to start the trial next week. Some Democrats envisioned a weekslong trial tying Trump down in a federal courtroom, followed by a guilty verdict from a deep-blue Washington, D.C., jury, followed by a long sentence imposed by Chutkan, followed by a move by Smith to imprison Trump pending appeal. Bingo! Trump would be behind bars by Labor Day, and Biden would cruise to victory.
Problem is, the 2020 case just hasn't worked out that way. The big obstacle, for Smith, Biden, and the Democratic Party, is that Smith's case involves "novel applications of criminal laws to unprecedented circumstances," in the words of a New York Times analysis. That means things will not proceed smoothly. The defendant has a right to question the legality of the unprecedented charges against him. The courts, all the way up to the Supreme Court, will have to consider and rule on some critical legal questions before the case goes forward. That takes time.
But Smith is in an enormous hurry. He has tried everything he can think of to cut corners and bypass procedures to get to trial quickly. The Supreme Court, even though it agreed to expedite the case, has not given him the quick go-ahead he wanted. Now, no one knows when the 2020 trial will start, but many believe it cannot be concluded, or perhaps even begun, before the election.
Here is Smith's most fundamental difficulty: He can't admit why he is moving so fast. It's obvious to everyone that he is racing to try Trump before the election. But Justice Department guidelines very clearly say federal prosecutors "may never select the timing of any action, including investigative steps, criminal charges, or statements, for the purpose of affecting any election." That is what Smith is doing. He can't admit his true motivation without admitting that he is violating long-held Justice Department rules against interference in an election.
That did not keep some Biden allies from expressing profound disappointment with the Supreme Court move that will delay the 2020 trial. The crew at MSNBC — the network's big stars, Rachel Maddow, Chris Hayes, and Lawrence O'Donnell — held an on-air therapy session to vent their frustration and dismay. O'Donnell was the only one with a shred of optimism because he believes Trump will be convicted of felonies in the New York case that goes to trial later this month. The others were inconsolable.
Why were they so inconsolable? Because Biden is in such bad political shape that for many Democrats, prosecuting Trump seems the surest, most reliable way to win the 2024 presidential election. If Biden falters, there is always lawfare. But if Biden falters and lawfare fails — that's a huge problem.
And that is why recent events have been so worrisome for so many in the Biden camp.
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