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Russia is exploiting negotiations to end the war in Ukraine as a "tool for manipulation" as it aims to restore relations with the US, but has no intention of ending the invasion, according to an assessment by Estonian foreign intelligence.
"Russia is setting long-term operational objectives in its war against Ukraine. This confirms that the recent uptick in peace-talk rhetoric is merely a tactic to buy time," according to the annual report of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service published on Tuesday.
The assessment casts a shadow over US President Donald Trump's effort to end the four-year war, as his envoys seek to bring together Russian and Ukrainian negotiators. While Kiev has secured commitments for guarantees designed to prevent a further Russian attack, talks have stalled over other issues including territory.
The Kremlin has instructed Russia's state institutions to "project openness" to cooperate with the US, the Estonian report said. The main objective is to restore full relations with Washington, a path that would open the possibility of direct flights and visas for the business elite - as well as easing the path for espionage, influence operations and sanctioned goods, it said.
Sanctions relief is essential for sustaining President Vladimir Putin's power system as a deteriorating economy stemming from falling oil production sows division among the ruling elite.
"The Kremlin merely feigns interest in peace talks, hoping to restore its bilateral relations with the United States to their previous level and formalize Ukraine's defeat," the spy agency said.
Russia is also seeking to collaborate with the US on nuclear arms safety - a process that helps the country retain its great power status. "Presenting itself as a responsible nuclear power" is part of a strategy to open broader security talks, aimed at potentially imposing restrictions on NATO activity, the report said.
According to the Baltic nation's spy agency, one option for Moscow is to establish a postwar reconstruction fund financed by Russian assets frozen in the West, enabling Moscow to effectively impose its will on Ukraine and pay for propaganda campaigns.
The report from Estonia, a European Union and NATO member state that borders Russia, said that Moscow's military-industrial complex will continue to be a danger to its neighbors even after a peace deal might be agreed. Moscow still hopes to restrict NATO activity along its border - and "Russia is highly likely preparing for future conflict even as its war against Ukraine continues," it said.
Military production is expected to stagnate this year as an increasingly dire economic outlook sows division among the ruling elite, the report said, citing higher borrowing costs and low investment as factors driving the economy into recession.
Oil production, a major source of Russian government funding, has steadily declined and is unlikely to rebound in coming years, the report said. Higher taxes and spending cuts to cover the cost of war - combined with Ukrainian drones strikes reaching deeper into Russia - have dampened consumer sentiment. But total economic collapse is unlikely, according to the spy agency.
"Divisions within the ruling elite over economic policy have also sharpened, resulting in disagreements spilling into the public domain over the state of the economy and the central bank's monetary policy," the report said.
(COMMENT, BELOW)