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Russia is intensifying covert attacks on key infrastructure in Germany in a campaign of hybrid warfare that Berlin views as a possible prelude to a wider conflict, according to a military document obtained by Bloomberg.
As Germany positions itself as NATO's main hub in Europe, it expects to be first targeted by Russia covertly via hybrid attacks - which use irregular or non-military tactics - on energy and defense infrastructure, according to the defense ministry document. It summarizes guidelines for cooperation between different levels of government and institutions in case of conflict with Moscow.
"Only after an open armed attack on NATO's eastern flank will Germany increasingly be threatened or attacked with military means such as long-range missiles, armed drones and special forces," the ministry said. "The hybrid measures and attacks that have been identified, particularly those carried out in Germany, should be seen as a tool deliberately used by Russia in its security policy and its fight against the ‘collective West.' At the same time, these measures could also serve as preparation for military conflict."
The language goes beyond framing used in previous guidelines and chimes with a recent warning by Martin Jäger, the new president of Germany's BND foreign-intelligence service, who told lawmakers in October that Russia is determined to test European borders and could escalate the conflict into a "hot confrontation" at any moment.
As laid out in Germany's national security strategy, the defense ministry views Russia as the "the greatest and most immediate threat to Germany's security."
A defense ministry spokeswoman declined to comment at Monday's regular government news conference when asked about the military document - titled Operationsplan Deutschland (OPLAN) - saying it's confidential. She added in general terms that Russia has stepped up covert attacks on infrastructure in Germany.
The defense ministry plan - which was first reported by Politico and Welt newspaper - cited national and foreign intelligence that suggested Russia is seeking to develop capabilities and strategic options to wage and survive a large-scale war against NATO.
"Even if Russia's war against Ukraine continues unchanged, it is expected that Russia will have developed these capabilities and strategic options by 2029 at the latest," according to the document.
"However, Russia continues to see the need to limit any potential conflict to the region, i.e. to avoid direct military confrontation with the US," the ministry added.
In the event of a conventional attack by Russia on NATO's eastern flank, Germany is not expected to become a frontline state and the scene of a direct confrontation between ground forces, the ministry said.
"However, Russia will do everything in its power to prevent or at least hinder the deployment of NATO forces on the eastern flank for the purposes of deterrence and, if necessary, defense," it said.
The defense ministry concluded that Russia is deliberately targeting and exploring possible weak links in cooperation between different levels of German government with hybrid measures designed to unsettle citizens.
"The aim is to prevent the early detection of these hybrid measures and their actual extent and impact, and to slow down and paralyze our decision-making and response capabilities of the various responsible parties at federal, state and local level."
(COMMENT, BELOW)