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Iran has spent decades funding and nurturing a web of proxy militias across the Middle East for exactly this type of moment: The Islamic Republic is besieged by a popular domestic uprising and threatened externally by arch enemies Israel and the US.
Yet, so far, support from the country's so-called Axis of Resistance has not been forthcoming.
The network of armed groups, which includes Hezbollah in Lebanon, Palestinian group Hamas and the Yemen-based Houthis, has been severely weakened by Israel's military response to the October 2023 Hamas attacks and the toppling of Syrian dictator Bashar Al-Assad, an Iranian ally.
As a result, Iran's "preventative defense strategy" has effectively crumbled, according to Mustafa Fahs, a Beirut-based commentator who has acted as adviser to several governments in the region. With a US attack still a possibility, the Islamic Republic may require them to "go suicidal" if the regime of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is at genuine risk of collapse, he said. That would mean a form of action against US interests - including suicide bombings - that risks them being wiped out.
The role of Iran's proxy militias is one of a number of unanswered questions about the near future of the Islamic Republic, which has been rocked since late December by nationwide protests against economic hardship and the theocratic leadership of Khamenei.
More than 2,600 people have died in the demonstrations as of Thursday, according to activist groups, with thousands more arrested. US President Donald Trump has taken a keen interest - urging protestors on Tuesday not to let up and saying "help is on its way," before later appearing to back down after Iran pledged not to execute detainees.
That's heightened tensions across the region, and Tehran has threatened any nearby country that assists Washington with an attack - and it still has a formidable arsenal of ballistic missiles to act independently. That could include Gulf states like Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates that either host US bases or military personnel.
Other defensive options at Iran's disposal include hitting or harassing tankers in the Straits of Hormuz, and oil prices soared at the height of the protests over the risk of disruption.
Hezbollah and the other proxies largely stayed out of the 12-day war in June that saw Israel and the US target Iran with airstrikes. International allies, notably Russia, were similarly quiet - as Moscow has been with talk of an Iranian war once again rife.
However, if Iran's regime does reach the point of imminent collapse, these proxies may be summoned for what several experts have characterized as a last ditch effort by Tehran's leadership to save itself. This would include the targeting of US interests and military installations in the Middle East and destabilizing countries in the region allied to Washington - including oil-rich Gulf states - they said.
"The collapse of Iran's revolutionary regime is an existential threat" for the proxy groups, said Matthew Levitt, director of the counterterrorism and intelligence program at the Washington Institute think tank. "In that case you can see them throw all caution to the wind."
Iran may choose to mobilize the clandestine Unit 3900, which is jointly operated by Hezbollah and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps's Quds Force and is tasked with coordinating and facilitating bombings and assassinations around the world, Levitt said.
Another option for Tehran is to bring in militiamen mainly from Lebanon and Iraq to assist in the crackdown on protesters. This is what the regime did in 2009 when it faced the so-called Green Movement - in which protestors demanded the removal of then-President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad - or when it mobilized proxies in support of Assad during Syria's civil war, Levitt said.
Israel has done particular damage to Hezbollah - the most powerful of the militias pre-Oct. 7 - assassinating senior figures and degrading its stockpile of weapons during an intense bombing campaign in late 2024. The group may be hesitant to act against Israel now as a result because it knows the response will be overwhelming - against both the organization and Lebanon, where it's based.
• Wild Cards
In Iraq, the situation is complex because some of Iran's most powerful proxies there, such as the Asaib Ahl al Haq, are part of the outgoing government and are playing a critical role in the formation of the next one following November's parliamentary election.
"These groups grasp the magnitude of the current standoff between Iran and the US," said Fahs, who visits Iraq frequently and meets with its political leaders. "They are looking for a settlement with the US that would preserve the political power and wealth that they have accumulated."
The wild cards are groups like Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba that are not in government and report directly to the IRGC, said Fahs, adding that he's seen intelligence that fighters from both factions have amassed at a base in the southern Iraqi desert close to the Saudi border. This could not be independently verified.
Similarly unpredictable are the Houthi militants, who control about a third of Yemen including the capital Sana'a. They've been trained and armed by Iran and Hezbollah for years and continue to rely on Tehran heavily for drones and missiles, but have also demonstrated a high level of independence.
The Houthis could attack US warships mobilized to the region, a tactic they deployed during a campaign against maritime traffic in the Red Sea after the start of the war in Gaza, though they haven't warned of such a move in months. In the past, that's brought retaliatory strikes by the US under Trump and his predecessor Joe Biden.
"It would be completely suicidal if they do it because this will invite a reaction from President Trump," said Nadwa Al-Dawsari, a fellow at the Centre on Armed Groups.
The Houthis are "pretty nervous" following recent clashes between Saudi- and UAE-backed groups in Yemen, which has led to Abu Dhabi pulling troops out of the country, she said. Their fear is that all factions opposed to them in the south unite under Saudi leadership and potentially try to retake Sana'a, she added.
But there's still a chance both the Houthis and Hezbollah could be part of an initial "coordinated" response by Iran to any attack by Israel and the US, said Reza Bundy, chief executive officer of Atlas Capital.
"The first salvo of drones and missiles will come from these groups to overwhelm Israel's defense systems and then the big salvo will come from Iran itself," said Bundy.
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